Rethinking the Sino-US war: Is China really threatening US power abroad?
So far, President Biden has retained his predecessor’s tough policy towards China. Malte Mueller, through Getty Images chairman Joe Biden, still maintains his predecessor’s hardline policy towards China, which aims to contain China’s international economy and politics. power. In the United States and Europe, China is recognized as a rising star threatening Western countries. But my research on China shows that China may no longer view itself that way. The Rise of China In the thirty years I have been studying and teaching Chinese foreign policy, I have witnessed three different eras of China̵
7;s treatment of international relations. After the death of the Chinese Communist Party leader Mao Zedong in 1976, Mao’s successors Deng Xiaoping and Jiang Zemin carried out economic reforms, which enabled China to embark on a path of amazing economic growth. Between 1990 and 2020, China rose from 11th to second in the global GDP ranking. The prevailing view in Western capitals in the 1990s was that China’s economic transformation will inevitably become a rich, peaceful and democratic country. In order to ensure this result, the major economic powers are preparing to include China as a full member of their open market social club, include it in international institutions such as the World Trade Organization, and include it in the global market. The West is eager to include it in the network of international political institutions established after the Second World War to promote cooperation and peaceful conflict resolution. China is very happy to join the club, at least in terms of trade and investment. The foreign relations strategy of Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping in the 1990s was to “conceal ability and bidding time”, adopting a policy of “Tao Guangyanghui” and keeping a low profile. In the early 2000s, President Hu Jintao took some moderate steps to increase China’s self-confidence on the world stage, build the Chinese navy, and launched a series of port projects in Pakistan and other regions. However, in most cases, Hu Jintao still pursues a “peaceful rise” policy. China’s dream When China’s current leader Xi Jinping took power in 2012, things changed. Xi Jinping put forward nationalism and power. His China will no longer take time. Xi Jinping proclaimed the “Chinese Dream” and regarded China as a powerful and powerful country with increasing influence not only in Asia but also in the world. Chinese President Xi Jinping participates in a military parade with former Presidents Hu Jintao and Jiang Zemin at Tiananmen Square in Beijing on October 1, 2019. The world uses its military power in the South China Sea and elsewhere, and combines diplomacy with massive investments in infrastructure in Latin America and Africa. Over time, many Western foreign policy leaders, including Barack Obama, began to believe that China was committed to subverting rather than maintaining the economic order it created, and enthusiastically welcomed China to join. In 2015, the United States made a “strategic hub” for Asia and away from the Middle East, which has been the focus of Washington since 9/11. In order to contain (or at least restrict) China, the United States has strengthened alliances with Australia, Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines, formed alliances with countries near China, and strengthened defense cooperation with India, Australia, and Japan. American worries In October 2017, Xi Jinping confirmed the West’s worries at the National Congress of the Communist Party of China. He publicly announced his goal of bringing China into the “central stage” of world affairs. Xi Jinping stated that China did not seek global domination, but warned that no one “should expect China to annex anything that harms its interests.” He also hinted that China’s rise will create a world order with “Chinese characteristics”. In December 2017, the United States’ updated national security strategy officially declared China’s rise as a threat, on the grounds that the theft of intellectual property rights and the development of advanced weapons are sufficient to undermine US military superiority. Trump, who believes that China is a serious threat, has established a combative relationship with Xi Jinping. Brendan Smialowski/AFP/Getty Images China confronts the world However, China’s dream is not guaranteed to come true. As President Xi told Communist Party members at a gathering in January 2019, China faces severe challenges. Beijing faces an alliance led by the United States that is committed to resisting China’s economic, military and diplomatic power in Asia. China’s debt has also been increasing, GDP growth has stagnated, and productivity has fallen. Then there is China’s disturbing demographics: the population is declining and it is aging. China’s population has declined for the first time in 2018 since Mao Zedong’s “Great Leap Forward” triggered a fatal famine in the 1960s. The Chinese Academy of Sciences predicts that if fertility continues to decline from the current rate of 1.6 children per woman to the projected 1.3, China’s population will decrease by about 50% by the end of this century. China ended its policy of restricting the family to one child in 2015, but its population is still older, with fewer workers left to feed more and more elderly people. The combination of these predictions has raised concerns within the Chinese Communist Party that China will “get old before it becomes rich.” This dilemma may cause serious social unrest. Xi Jinping and others in the leadership of the Chinese Communist Party no longer let themselves go. Instead, they expressed concern that global leadership could not be achieved. [Get the best of The Conversation, every weekend. Sign up for our weekly newsletter.] Disagreements and these concerns have changed China’s foreign policy, leading to more and more direct military operations against neighboring India. India has a territorial dispute in the Himalayas, near Taiwan. China is also redoubled efforts to safeguard its territorial rights to disputed islands in the South China Sea and to combat democracy in Hong Kong. Xi Jinping has accepted a confrontational new form of global diplomacy that more actively undermines US interests abroad. After two Chinese blockbusters about Chinese special forces conquering American mercenaries in Africa and Asia, some people called it “wolf warrior diplomacy.” This is the 60 years that China and the West have held such fundamentally different views on China’s global trajectory. The result may be unstable. If a weak China feels threatened by Western containment, its display of nationalism in India, Taiwan, Hong Kong and the South China Sea could double. The post-World War II international order established to promote economic cooperation and avoid war may not be able to withstand the pressure of increasingly severe challenges within China. The war between China and the West is still a remote possibility, but it may not be as remote as it seemed before. This article is excerpted from The Conversation, a non-profit news site dedicated to sharing the opinions of academic experts. Its author: Macalester College of Andrew Latham. Read more: Coronavirus vaccine: What is the way to promote it globally? – The “Trumpism” of the Australian “Dialogue Weekly” podcast is exaggerated – Our problem is mainly that our own Andrew Latham cannot work for any company or organization that benefits from this article. Consulting, owning shares or obtaining funds from it, and has disclosed that there are no other affiliates other than academic appointments.