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Will the fourth wave of COVID-19 in the east spread to California?



It appears that the fourth wave of COVID-19 pandemic has broken out in Michigan, New York and New England, and experts are not sure whether it will continue to be contained.

“The United States has entered the fourth wave of transmission, and there is no dispute about this. Dr. George Rutherford, an epidemiologist at the University of San Francisco, said at the campus town hall meeting on Friday: “This is still a small regional outbreak. It remains to be seen whether it is widespread across the country. “

Federal officials said on Friday that nationwide, the daily average of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases has increased by 8% on a week-on-week basis, and this number has risen to approximately 62,000 in the seven-day period ending Wednesday. During the same period, the average number of new hospitalization days for COVID-1

9 patients increased by 5%.

The situation in California is much better. The number of cases in California has dropped to the lowest level since the end of last spring. The state reports an average of 2,500 to 2,700 cases per day. (During the worst peaks in the fall and winter, California reports 45,000 cases every day.) In addition, last week, the positive rate of coronavirus testing in California was 1%-2%, compared with 16% in Michigan and the United States. State 9%.

“In California, our situation is much better-we don’t have a peak. But what I want to point out is that we have leveled off and have not seen a sustained decline.” Rutherford said.

He and others expressed concern about Florida, which is the state with the highest concentration of confirmed cases of the British coronavirus variant B.1.1.7. The virus spreads more easily than conventional strains and may even be fatal. Florida does not have a statewide use of masks, and many spring break revellers have raised concerns that travelers will further spread this British variant throughout the UK. Last week, the positive rate in Florida was 9% and it is climbing.

Rutherford said: “We have to see how it turns out.”

Rutherford said that since mid-March, the Michigan boom began to accelerate and seems to be moving towards a peak similar to the state’s highest winter level. Rutherford said the Michigan boom seems to be related to the British variant and may be due to increased high school sports activities.

“In other places-in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Massachusetts, Delaware-there has been a series of interconnected outbreaks that seem to be the moderate growth of the New York metropolitan outbreak and spread to neighboring states. States,” Rutherford said.

Experts from other countries also responded to Rutherford’s concerns.

“We are heading towards the fourth wave. The number of cases is increasing. The variants are increasing. Dr. Tom Frieden, former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, spoke on ABC’s “American Morning” on Saturday. “Ann” said in the program that the variants are more deadly. “We just need to persist until a larger proportion of the population (especially the disadvantaged) have been well vaccinated, and more of us have been vaccinated. Otherwise we will have a massive fourth surge. I am afraid we will have a fourth surge. How big and deadly is it? It depends on us. “

Considering how many people in the United States have been vaccinated or immune due to past coronavirus infections, some experts disagree.

The former head of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, Dr. Scott Gottlieb, said in CBS’ “Face the Nation” magazine on Sunday: “I think people have enough immunity. , So you won’t really see the fourth wave of infections.”. “However, he added that it is true that “there are indeed many infections across the country, especially among unvaccinated young people and school-age children.”

Gottlieb said that he believes that if the school adheres to pandemic safety measures, the school can remain open: “As an epidemiologist mentioned this week, please make full use of’Harry Potter’ and Try to keep students in the established social group so that they don’t get mixed together. Large groups of people.”

According to federal data, California is the fourth largest case in the United States related to the British variant. It is foreseeable that this variant will spread in states blocked by California variants B.1.427/B.1.429, and it will be more common here.

“Hope we can dodge this bullet, because this [U.K. strain] Rutherford said: “This is a more easily spread strain, which may cause more serious diseases.”

More than 32% of Californians have received at least one dose of the COVID-19 vaccine, and more than 15% have been fully vaccinated.

The latest data show that currently available vaccines provide adequate protection for the new variants. Rutherford said that compared with conventional coronavirus strains, the immune response produced by the vaccine “far exceeds.” Rutherford said that even if they show reduced effectiveness against variants, such as South Africa’s B.1.351 and Brazil’s P.1 strains, these vaccines produce an immune response “two to three times more than you need. “. “So far, so good.”

Despite the positive news about vaccination, the chief health officer of Santa Clara, the most populous county in Northern California, warned that the rate of decline in the number of daily cases there is slowing.

“We are now seeing a flattening of the case rate, and in some cases… some signs indicate that the case rate is starting to rise. Therefore, we may have gone very low,” Santa Clara County Health Officer and Director of Public Health Dr. Sara Cody said. “Unfortunately, all of us still need to be very vigilant and cautious to prevent any surge or even expansion. We don’t want this to happen.”

The possibility of another surge or “moderate” increase in California will depend on the availability of vaccines and the behavior of residents.

Cody said: “Vaccines will help, but we need more supplies, so we can eliminate them faster.” “We need people to wait a while: continue to wear masks, delay travel, and don’t eat indoors. , Don’t go to indoor bars, don’t hold indoor gatherings at home. Don’t do this even if the national regulations allow it. It’s not safe yet.

Health officials have admitted that there is a clear contradiction in easing restrictions, while at the same time expressing caution about the increase in cases.

However, according to Dr. Muntu Davis, a health officer in Los Angeles County, there may be mixed messages when dealing with the new virus.

Davis said on Friday: “This is naturally what happened within the pandemic.” “When you start to understand the role of the virus, and when you have a new countermeasure (whether it is a vaccine or a treatment), we start to learn More. But before we get this information, we must proceed with caution, because everyone is at risk.”




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