We know that most Americans plan to vote by mail or in person before election day, and at least 75 million people have already voted.this is a huge Voting increased since the beginning of 2016. As a result, we probably don’t know who won the presidency on election night.
Take Pennsylvania as an example. It may be the most important swing state in this election because it is currently the most likely “critical point state” in our forecast, or the state that may determine the winner of the electoral college. So far, about 2 million mailed ballots have been returned, almost one-third of the state’s total votes four years ago. However, since the state cannot start processing mail polls until 7 am on election day, it may take some time to get a complete result in Pennsylvania. State officials said it may not be until Friday to complete the counting of most votes. Between Tuesday and Friday, considering which party’s position in the vote count may change considerably, because Biden’s supporters are more likely to vote early or absent than Trump’s supporters, and Trump Supporters have the right to vote on election day.
In other words, we need to prepare for the “blues”
But it must be emphasized that this model-the last time the ballot moved the result in the direction of democracy-has existed in previous elections. Historically, this is partly because some democratic voting groups, such as young voters, are more likely to cast last-minute absentee ballots and provisional ballots, which will be counted in the future. But with the massive increase in postal votes and the strong support of the Democratic Party for postal votes-polls show that Biden may win about three-quarters of Pennsylvania’s postal votes-this year’s blue shift may be larger than in the past few years many.
It can be said that we should be prepared for a large-scale vote. Pennsylvania may not be the only battleground state where we will see this transition. However, we have not completely blinded our eyes: the results of the June 2 presidential election in Pennsylvania provided us with some clues about how blue shifts might occur, and more importantly, what it might look like.
In that election, the more remote rural areas and Republican-leaning areas of the state reported most of the voting results on election night because their votes were too high on election day. In the populous and democratic areas of the state, due to the large number of mailed votes, it takes about two and a half weeks to report most of the votes. As a result, according to ABC News, the election night held at 3 am Eastern Time only reported 46% of the final Democratic presidential primaries, while the total number of Republicans was only 71%.
So what does it mean if something similar happens on election night in Pennsylvania? Well, if we use what the president’s forecast currently says about the race in Pennsylvania, we can do a little calculation to understand what the November 3 vote might look like. However, we should be aware that this analysis has its limitations. We cannot determine how many Pennsylvanians will actually vote in November, or the speed and trend of the count. Not to mention, counting votes in two different primary elections is different from counting votes in a presidential election.
Currently, our forecast estimates that Pennsylvania will cast an average of 6.8 million votes, and the average poll results give Biden a 5 points advantage over Trump, that is, 52% to 47%. If this result is resolved, it means that Biden will win about 3.6 million of Trump’s 3.2 million votes (the other candidates still have a few votes). Moreover, if the vote count follows what we have seen in the primary elections, then less than half of Biden’s votes will be held at 3 am on election night, while Trump’s vote is reported to be about 70%.
This means that we may be considering a situation in which Trump leads by 16 points, or 58% to 42%, with about 60% of the expected total votes.But in the next few days-assuming again the same pattern we observed in the primary election-Biden will win the remaining two-thirds of the votes, which will prompt 21 o’clock The overall profit margin shifted from 3 a.m. on election night to the final result, as shown in the chart below.
Now, it is entirely possible that the actual magnitude of change is not as large as the one outlined above. After the primary election, local election officials in Pennsylvania now have some experience in handling large numbers of mail voting. The state has also made investments to speed up the vote count. In addition, before the election day, a considerable part of the mail voting has been handed in. Therefore, the administrator can have the majority of all mail votes when they start processing mail on the morning of the election day. Pennsylvania officials also want to ensure that voters are not surprised by the large voting changes, so the plan is as transparent as possible. Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar said that she would call on county election officials to regularly report on the progress of counting mail votes, rather than reporting all of them immediately, to avoid huge fluctuations in the vote, which might cause confusion. She also wants the state to share the remaining votes, the number of votes in the counting process, and the party affiliation of the voters who cast the remaining votes.
However, we are talking about a lot of votes that must be processed. In Pennsylvania’s presidential primaries, only 2.7 million people voted, which is about 40% of the total votes we expect in the general election. In fact, more people asked for votes by mail than during the Pennsylvania presidential primary. This means that even if officials are better prepared, they will have to process far more mailed votes compared to June. Although they can start processing at 7 am on November 3, this still means verifying and processing each ballot, and then counting each ballot. This may take several days, which may affect the speed at which we know who won the election.
This brings us concerns about a possible major blue shift, especially when the election is about to end: Trump can try to declare victory based on initial returns because he claims that the result should be known on election night. Now, declaring victory does not make much sense, because it has no legal basis. But doing so may help question the results, especially if the subsequent shift to Biden is accompanied by false claims about fraudulent voting, such as claims that the president has made many times. Experts from organizations such as the Transitional Integrity Project even expressed concern that in this case, Trump might try to find ways to interfere with the number of days after the election to prevent potential blue shifts.
Even if Trump does not question the result, Pennsylvania’s blues may be affected by the state’s post-election court ruling. Participation in the debate over whether to count the votes stamped after election day and received on November 6. The US Supreme Court has twice upheld the state Supreme Court’s ruling, which extended the deadline, but it is not clear whether the court has completely ruled out this. Discuss this issue again. Judge Samuel Alito, along with two other conservative judges on the court, wrote that although the state’s Supreme Court’s decision is highly likely to violate the US Constitution, there is no time to make up your mind before the election. However, ballots arriving after 8 p.m. Eastern Time on Election Day will be processed separately, so if necessary after the election, the issue can be discussed again. Moreover, if the Supreme Court accepts the case again after the election, the decision not to count these votes may reduce the range of changes in Biden’s approval votes, because considering the split of the party in the mail voting may affect more Democratic votes. Trump said on Wednesday that he hopes the court will prevent states from counting votes after election day.
After Election Night in Pennsylvania, it is difficult to say how much the ballot may change, but the key results in Keystone state indicate that we should be prepared for a large vote. And it may not be the only battlefield state with some blues. For example, Wisconsin will not be able to process mail voting until Election Day, and voting in Michigan is expected to continue for several days.
Because of the increase in mailed ballots, prepared Americans can perform lengthy counts and major ballot changes, so they are unlikely to believe misinformation about these changes.