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Who is voting? Who’s winning?Early voting only provides clues



As the nation’s early voting breaks records, political analysts and campaigns are reviewing vast amounts of data about voters, looking for clues to key questions: Who is voting? Who’s winning?

On the one hand, the answer may be simple. According to the Associated Press’s analysis of early voting, in the states reporting the affiliation of the voters’ party, the performance of registered Democrats greatly exceeded that of registered Republicans, an increase of 14 percentage points.

But this does not tell the whole story. The choices of many Americans do not match their party registration. At the same time, opinion polls show that Republicans have listened to President Donald Trump’s unfounded warning about voting by mail, and a large number of people plan to vote on election day. This means that the early Democratic surge may give way to the Republican surge on Tuesday.

The unprecedented nature of how Americans vote further cloud the situation. Although the Democrats are eager for signs of participation in key parts of the coalition-young voters, black voters, new voters-it is difficult to compare with 201

6.

Here are the details of what we know and don’t know about early voters:

Early voting

As of Friday afternoon, 86.8 million people had voted in the presidential election. This is 63% of the total votes in 2016. Most election experts believe that by 2020, the United States will have between 150 million and 160 million votes, which means we may spend more than half of the time voting. In one state in Texas, more people have voted than in 2016.

According to the Associated Press’s analysis of data from political data company L2, Democrats dominated the Republican early vote, accounting for 47% to 33%.

This does not mean that the Democratic Party will win. But this does increase the pressure on Republicans to have a similar advantage (or even higher) on election day.

New votes are emerging

In all elections, the question with the highest turnout is: Which party is attracting new voters? The data show that the Democrats are achieving this goal-but not necessarily as significant as some large overall figures suggest.

According to an analysis by the Associated Press, more than a quarter (27%) of all votes were cast by new voters or very few voters. These voters have never voted, nor have they participated in less than half of the elections. It sounds like a big number, but it hasn’t changed much from the past few years. The Democratic data company Catalist found that in 2016, about a quarter of voters did not vote in the last presidential election.

However, as new and few voters tend to vote around election day, the number of voters may increase. Even a small increase can make a difference on a tense battlefield.

For Democrats, this increase in number seems to be good news. Forty-three percent of the unfrequent and new voters are registered Democrats, while Republicans account for a quarter. The remaining third are registered as independents or minor parties, which tend to favor Democratic candidates.

Voters gather on the Sun Belt, especially in states such as Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. Democrats hope to win by mobilizing the majority of voters who participate in most games.

“Democrats are already expanding the number of voters,” said Tom Bonier of TargetSmart, a Democratic data company. “For Biden, this is undoubtedly beneficial. With the warning we heard a million times before. Looking at it, we don’t know how many other voters will come out on election day.”

The black voting unit remains stable

Biden’s fate may be related to the high turnout of black voters on the battlefield. According to Pew Research’s estimates of voters in that election, so far, about 9% of early voting was conducted by African Americans, the same as the 10% of black voters in 2016.

Black voters have been paying close attention to their proportion of voters on several battlefields. In North Carolina, they are 21% of all early voters and all registered voters. In Georgia, they accounted for 30% of early voting and 32% of registered voters.

The black voter turnout rate dropped slightly from the highs in 2008 and 2012, which played a role in the Democratic Party’s defeat in 2016, and the party and its supporters are carefully observing the situation this time.

So far, the data is not clear. Earlier African-American votes surged. Black voters aged 65 and over are already one of the most reliable voting populations, but according to TargetSmart data, they are already in six major battlefields (Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Germany). Texas) exceeded their numbers.

At the same time, according to data from the International Service Employees Association, younger, less reliable black voters currently account for a higher proportion of black voters compared to 2016. This shows signs of higher participation in this group of voters in 2016.

Organizers say that black voters are struggling from epidemics and economic collapse. The disaster has hit African Americans the hardest, and the country’s racial discrimination is the same. Mary Kay Henry (Mary Kay Henry), International Chairman of the International League of Service Workers, said this motivates them to overcome persistent barriers to voting.

Henry said: “Black and brown communities are facing these multiple crises.” She added that this strengthened their determination to vote.

The SEIU union stated that three out of four black voters in Pennsylvania have yet to vote. The union is shifting resources to polling stations in Pennsylvania because it fears that black voters will be slower to return mail to vote.

Promote democracy for bright spots among young voters

As of Friday, Associated Press analysis showed that 11.3% of early votes were cast by voters between the ages of 18 and 29. This is slightly higher than in 2016, when 9.6% of early votes were voted by people under 30. Go to TargetSmart.

According to data from the Associated Press, on the Sunbelt battlefield in Florida, Georgia and North Carolina, young voters turned out as high as 30% or more.

For Democrats, this is once again a good sign, but it is a very preliminary sign. Young voters tend to favor the Democratic Party, and it is not surprising that when the Democratic Party rushes to the polls, their numbers will be higher.

According to the U.S. Census, there was an unprecedented level of young voters in 2018, with 36% of eligible voters participating in the election. This helped the Democrats win control of the House of Representatives.

Young voter advocates worry that the pandemic has caused a sharp drop in the number of voters registered for 18- and 19-year-olds who are just eligible to vote.

However, according to data from the Center for Information Research and Civic Learning and Participation at Tufts University, compared with 2016, almost all states still have a larger proportion of young voters among registered voters. This reflects population growth and led to an increase in the number of registrations in 2018.

University of Florida professor Michael McDonald runs the ElectProject.org website and carefully tracks early voting. He cautions against drawing too many conclusions from the changes in the youth voting in 2016. “The youth turnout rate has gone up,” he said. “Everything is fine. This happens when the turnout is high.”

Will high turnout affect the results?

Republicans argue that on the battlefield, the expected record turnout is not important.

When all votes are counted, the Trump campaign predicted that the turnout in battlefield states in 2020 will be similar to 2016.

Nick Trainer, the director of strategy for the Trump campaign, told Democrats: “This is predictable, what they bring to the voters.” “We bring our new voters into the voters, and all voters are Will enter the washing machine.”

Compared with several election experts, this is a huge breakthrough. They have seen signs in early voter numbers and voter enthusiasm surveys on the battlefield.

Republican pollster John Couvillon, who tracked early voting, said the Trump campaign was too dismissive. Cuvillon said: “I heard a similar attitude in 2008, when Republicans denied that Obama had an impressive early turnout.”

McDonald’s pointed out that he didn’t know until election day.

However, he pointed out that if the voter turnout is very low, given that Democrats have already obtained a large early voting advantage, this is not necessarily good news for Trump. This will mean that the presidential campaign will need to win election day with a greater advantage.

McDonald’s said: “They hope they are wrong.”


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