modern (Nasdaq stock code: MRNA), Pfizer (New York Stock Exchange: PFE), There are other people in the coronavirus vaccine race approaching the end.This week, Pfizer and its partners Biotechnology (Nasdaq stock code: BNTX) Positive mid-term efficacy data were obtained from their phase 3 clinical trials. The Moderna and Pfizer teams respectively stated that they hope to obtain Phase 3 safety data this month, after which they will apply for an emergency use authorization (EUA) from the US Food and Drug Administration.
However, a long time ago, clues emerged about which companies might become the largest vaccine suppliers. A few months ago, after the vaccine was approved, pharmaceutical companies and biotech competitors began to announce an agreement to provide dosages to organizations and countries. Let̵
3 billion doses
If we only look at numbers, AstraZeneca (Nasdaq: AZN) To date, it will provide more vaccine doses than its counterparts. The large pharmaceutical company expects to produce nearly 3 billion doses by the end of 2021. AstraZeneca’s largest transaction is with the United States and Europe. The US government invested 1.2 billion US dollars to support AstraZeneca’s plan in exchange for 300 million doses of vaccine. According to an agreement reached with the European Commission, EU member states will receive 400 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine.
But keep in mind that AstraZeneca has promised to provide its vaccines worldwide, and it will not be profitable during the pandemic. The funds obtained from the supply agreement will compensate the company’s own investment in the vaccine program. Moderna, Pfizer and Novax (Nasdaq stock code: NVAX) -Another major player-did not fulfill the non-profit promise.
Based on the contracts announced so far, it is impossible to accurately calculate how many doses the company will produce. Some agreements are license transactions that allow another company to take over the production and sales of vaccines. The company then provides milestone payments and a percentage of vaccine sales to vaccine developers. Other agreements did not disclose the dose ordered.
Therefore, when studying Moderna, Pfizer and Novavax, let us first consider providing an agreement on the number of vaccine doses that can be provided. Novavax has received orders for at least 276 million doses, which are supplied to the United States, Australia, Canada and the United Kingdom. Moderna’s orders from the United States, Japan, Canada and Switzerland total approximately 175 million doses. Pfizer’s agreement includes 450 million doses from the United States, the European Union, Japan and the United Kingdom. Currently, Pfizer is in a leading position.
As for the less specific agreements, here is how they affect us: Novavax has licensed its vaccine candidate to Takeda Pharmaceutical (New York Stock Exchange: Thank you) Commercialized in Japan and commercialized in India and low- and middle-income countries at the Serum Institute of India. The company also won a deal to cooperate with local companies to supply products to South Korea.
Israel ordered an uncertain number of doses from Moderna, and Canada ordered an uncertain number of doses from Pfizer.
There is another clue that will help us determine which company may become the leader of the supplier: capacity. Novavax plans to provide more than 2 billion doses of the drug by the middle of next year. Pfizer said it could provide 1.3 billion doses by the end of next year, and Moderna plans to provide another 500 million to 1 billion doses by then.
What does all this tell us?
Considering AstraZeneca’s ability and its pledge to provide vaccine doses free of charge during the pandemic, it may initially be the largest supplier. Pfizer’s strength lies in the number of orders it has received so far. And Novavax’s capabilities show that it has what it needs to become a major supplier in the future.
Of course, all of this depends on the results of each company’s coronavirus vaccine program. Now, the participants mentioned here are testing their vaccine candidates in a phase 3 trial. If one of the companies’ efforts fails, its supply agreement will be invalidated.
Supply trading is a constantly changing goal. More may appear at any time. Investors should pay attention to this factor. In the long term, it is important to determine which companies will ultimately profit from vaccine sales.