I hope lawmakers in Washington can reach an agreement on a new round of negotiations.The relief before the presidential election has almost disappeared. The senator adjourned on Monday and was originally scheduled to return on November 9, which hindered the progress of the new stimulus bill.
Although House Democrats and the Trump administration have narrowed their differences with another round of stimulus package, the latest proposal is close to 2 trillion US dollars, including the 1,200 US dollars stimulus measures and the extension of expanded federal unemployment benefits, but many Senate Republicans clearly expressed their opposition. package. Mnuchin told CNBC earlier this month that “it is difficult to reach an agreement before the election.”
Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi (Nancy Pelosi) revealed on Thursday several aspects that were still unresolved during the negotiations with the Trump administration, indicating that the two sides are struggling with another project aimed at struggling with the coronavirus pandemic. U.S. families provide assistance measures far apart.
President Donald Trump urged earlier this monthBefore the general election on November 3. This is contrary to Trump’s position earlier this month, when Trump urged a series of more limited personal measures.
- The CBSN special issue focuses on economic conditions, as the second round of federal stimulus is pending. Download the CBS News App Play “Countries in Need: Stimulus Checklist” on CBSN.
500 billion dollars? 1.8 trillion dollars? 2.2 trillion dollars?
Republicans and Democrats disagree on the size of the next stimulus package. McConnell said in a statement that the Republican Party’s streamlining proposal (prices over $500 billion) would provide funds to expand unemployment benefits, another round of “salary protection programs,” providing financial aid to schools and for testing and Tracked funds. There is no mention of the second round of stimulation checks.
Pelosi had previously rejected a $1.8 trillion proposal made by the White House, arguing that it was not doing enough on provisions such as testing and tracking and childcare funding. Mnuchin stated earlier this month that the government’s top priority is to use the remaining US$300 billion in the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security Act (CARES) to provide US$130 billion in funding for the Salary Protection Program, as well as to help those in trouble The aviation industry provides assistance.
Economists warned that given the continuing pandemic and economic headwinds, if fiscal stimulus measures are not injected again, recovery may be prevented.As the aviation industry layoffs and large companies continue to lay off, job growth across the United States is slow.
Gregory Daco, chief American economist at the University of Oxford, said: “Without faster job growth-unlikely at this stage of recovery-or increased financial aid, households, businesses, and state Local governments will become increasingly vulnerable to deteriorating health conditions.” Economics.
“Spreading political chaos”
Even before the Senate adjourned, Wall Street analysts expressed doubts about the possibility of a compromise on broad or more limited measures (such as stimulus payments) before the election.
Alec Phillips, an economist at Goldman Sachs, told investors in a report that supplementing the “salary protection program” that provides low-cost loans to small businesses is “impossible because both parties Of legislators may wish to take additional measures to the bill.” “A separate bill is less likely to authorize another round of stimulus payments to individuals because neither party has made this a priority.”
According to the height theory, after political allies and Mr. Trump’s opponents expressed opposition to his decision to close the stimulus negotiations, the president’s push for a smaller relief bill appears to be a “hastily attempt to clean up the spreading political chaos. situation”. Securities.
The height analyst added: “It’s not a winning strategy to make this push after happily blaming for killing the larger negotiations. We hope that Pelosi has no incentive to allow Trump to win on the type of independent assistance he has requested. ”
Working hard to pay the bill
As the pandemic shows little sign of abating, the early government aid has now been exhausted, and many businesses and households are facing financial constraints. The Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, a think tank that tends to be liberal, said that by the end of September, one-third of American adults would have difficulty paying basic expenses such as food and rent.
The Democratic Party’s latest “HEROES (or Comprehensive Emergency Solutions for Health and Economic Recovery) Act” aims to offset some of these pressures. The relief bill passed by the House of Representatives on October 1 will support various economic programs, from food stamps to the restoration of an additional $600 weekly unemployment benefit.
But Mr. Trump quickly tweeted on Twitter that he was canceling negotiations on further stimulus measures. After the outbreak of the virus in the United States this spring, the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act has distributed approximately 160 million checks to Americans, providing $1,200 in cash payments for individuals and $2,400 for married couples Paid in cash, but not exceeding certain income limits.
Better economic growth?
An increase of $1,200 per adult can certainly relieve financial pressure, but a one-time payment can only be paid—for example, a month’s rent, or to help pay for groceries and other bills. As with the first round of checks, they will be distributed to those who earn less than $75,000 per single taxpayer or $150,000 per married couple, regardless of whether they lose their job or income.
Economists say that other relief policies have proven to be more effective in promoting the economy. For example, an increase of $600 in unemployment benefits per week can help families suffering from job or income losses until due in July. According to the Economic Policy Research Institute, in May alone, the plan increased personal income by $842 billion.
This money helped support local businesses so that the economy would not collapse under the influence of lock-in. But Trump did not mention that the renewal of the plan is an independent fund-raising effort, and Mnuchin did not propose it earlier this month.
At the same time, according to UnemploymentPUA.com, which tracks the plan, the additional $300 weekly unemployment benefit ordered by Trump has been exhausted in at least 20 states. The job called “Lost Wage Assistance” (LWA) was created in August through the use of disaster relief funds, but it can only provide six weeks of additional unemployment benefits.
“we estimate [LWA] Dakko wrote that the plan will create an income cliff of US$600 billion (annualized), leaving household incomes about 3% lower than the pre-Kuwait levels in October. With more than 20 million people still claiming unemployment benefits, this shortage may have deeper consequences for the local area. “