The past year has not only brought about a stock market crash and widespread technology industry sell-offs, but also a global pandemic, which has weakened the global economy at least temporarily. However, through all this, apple (AAPL, $135.39) has hardly flinched; since this time a year ago, Apple’s stock price has risen about 70%.
Apple was founded in 1976 and by August 2018 has grown into a company with a market capitalization of US$1 trillion. One month after two years, Apple’s stock price reached the $2 trillion mark, and since then it has increased by $100 billion.
Of course, for Apple stockholders, the question is whether their investment has reached a critical level, or whether AAPL̵
These seven factors will have the greatest say.
#1: The biggest factor in Apple stock: iPhone 12
The main question in 2021 is whether the so-called iPhone 12 upgrade super cycle will continue to be realized.
The iPhone 12 series is the first Apple smartphone to include a 5G connection. It offers the most products in size and color to date-including the first iPhone mini 12 (starting at $699) and the largest iPhone 12 Pro Max model ever (starting at $1,099).
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Many analysts predict that this 5G feature will lead to a large number of iPhone 12 upgrades. Given that despite the weakness of the global smartphone market, the iPhone still accounts for the largest share of Apple’s revenue, which will be a huge change for APL. In the fourth quarter, this was $26.4 billion, accounting for almost 41% of Apple’s total sales.
At the end of November, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives rated Apple’s stock as “outperform” and set a 12-month target price of $150, and pointed out:
“According to our estimates, 350 million of the 950 million iPhones in the world are currently within upgrade opportunities. We believe this will bring an unprecedented upgrade cycle for Apple’s upcoming major holiday.”
So far, so good.
The initial industry data is encouraging. In the first 24 hours of booking, iPhone 12 sales greatly surpassed last year’s iPhone 11, with a profit margin of 2 million to 800,000 units.
Then it was reported that due to the surge in demand for the iPhone 12, Apple has increased its iPhone production orders by 30%. According to the report, Apple told its suppliers that it expects iPhone sales in 2021 to be 20% higher than iPhone 12 sales. In 2020.
Then, in late January, Apple reduced its first-quarter revenue.
“So far, Cook & Co.’s reported total revenue of US$111.44 billion (a 21% year-on-year increase), easily surpassed Wall Street’s estimate of US$103.27 billion. The most important iPhone revenue has driven this growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17%. Reached 65.60 billion U.S. dollars. Compared to Wall Street’s estimated “jaw drop” of 59.86 billion U.S. dollars, it even exceeded the bullish whisper expectations.” Ives said, he maintains Apple’s stock “outperform” (buy) rating and 175 Target share price in USD.
He added: “So far, we have basically regarded this quarter as the beginning of the 5G supercycle. We have seen order activity continue to greatly exceed expectations. Its predecessor, the iPhone 11, also marks the green light for fiscal year 21.”
Recently, Ives reported that: “Our Asian supply chain inspections continue to show the strong strength of this iPhone 12 super cycle for the rest of 2021.” He led him to predict that Apple’s market value will reach 3 trillion by the end of the year. US dollars.
#2: More AirPods
AirPods, Apple’s popular true wireless earplug product, was an unexpected blow to the company. AirPods were initially ridiculed for their prominent “stem” and have now become the best-selling product in the wireless headset market. In 2019, Apple sold nearly 60 million pairs. Wedbush predicts that Apple will sell 90 million units in 2020 and believes that it will sell 115 million units in 2021.
The company has been actively expanding the AirPods lineup. AirPods Max in-ear headphones, priced at $549, have also recently joined AirPods and AirPods Pro. It is expected to launch the second-generation AirPods Pro and the third-generation AirPods similar to AirPods Pro in 2021 (but lacking active noise reduction).
AirPods have become big business. It is estimated that Apple’s AirPods revenue is higher than the total revenue of other technology giants such as Spotify (SPOT) and Nvidia (NVDA).
Apple’s development momentum is just right. CFRA’s Angelo Zino (buy) wrote after the company’s first quarter earnings report: “Wearables grew by 30%, thanks to the release of Apple Watch Series 6 and the widespread adoption of AirPods.
If AAPL can maintain sales growth – and decide Is not Including free wired earbuds in the iPhone 12 will help this-this business category may provide real upside for Apple stock in 2021.
#3: M1 Macs
Apple’s biggest move in 2020 is to revolve around its oldest product line: Mac computers. On November 10, the company introduced the first batch of new Macs running its own ARM-based M1 chip instead of Intel (INTC) processors.
The M1 chip is built on Apple’s design that brings such outstanding effects to the iPhone and iPad. M1 is customized to take full advantage of macOS and Apple hardware. It can run iOS mobile applications on this machine, and most Mac software that has not been updated can run at full speed using Apple’s Rosetta 2 emulation. In the benchmark test, the new M1-capable Mac computer will leave the current Windows PC equipped with the latest Intel processor with Graphics cards from Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) – dusty.
Despite the power supply, the new M1 MacBook Pro can still provide up to 20 hours of battery life.
What PC makers (and other chip makers) really worry about is that the M1 chip is the first-generation product, and these new Macs are entry-level models. This year, Apple is expected to release more new Macs equipped with more powerful M-series processors.
Mac ranks fourth in the revenue of Apple’s five divisions, bringing in revenue of $8.7 billion in the last quarter, while revenue from the iPhone is approximately $65.6 billion. But this is still a meaningful number for APL.
The fast M1 processor may win the Windows-to-Mac camp. If nothing else, a powerful new Mac will surely lead to a lot of upgrades by existing Mac owners.
#4: Regulatory challenges
The biggest challenge Apple faces in 2021 is not its competitors. It is a government agency investigating Apple’s anti-competitive behavior.
Apple is facing increasing investigations in the US and Europe, including:
Complain that the latest version of iOS (including advanced ad blocking and privacy controls) is anti-competitive.
The company refused to allow services other than Apple Pay to use the “click to pay” feature on the iPhone.
Apps like Spotify are forced to pay a certain subscription fee.
Moreover, the company is still filing costly lawsuits for the throttling of older iPhones.
Among the legal proceedings facing APL in 2021, the legal proceedings centered on the App Store are the most worrying for Apple stock holders. The company faces an antitrust investigation in Europe and has filed a lawsuit in the United States. Recently, “Information” quoted two people who regularly met with the US Department of Justice to report that the company is facing a review of its “signing with Apple” rules by the US Department of Justice. “Button.
In addition to legal fees and any fines, Apple’s 30% stake in App Store sales is at risk-CNBC estimates that by 2020, the App Store will generate approximately $64 billion in revenue. (Apple did not explicitly list App Store revenue.)
#5: Push service
Services have become an important part of Apple’s strategy to replace iPhone revenue decline. This works well with Apple Music, which quickly became second only to Spotify.
However, the latest round of services faces even more difficult challenges in persuading people to pay for subscription fees. Apple TV+ did not perform well, and the company started giving away a one-year subscription for the purchased device for free. Since its release, Apple News+ has been struggling.Famous people include New York Times After Apple extended the one-month free trial period to three months, the company withdrew and withdrew at the end of November.
Apple Services’ revenue in the last quarter was $15.8 billion. This is an increase of 24% over the same period last year, making it Apple’s second-largest revenue division. However, due to its large installed user base of 1.65 billion devices already installed, the company may do better. This year, the newly announced Apple Fitness+ and Apple One subscription bundles will try to do just that.
Needham analyst Laura Martin (Laura Martin) has a buy rating on Apple stock. He pointed out the advantages and importance of the service sector:
She said: “Services make iOS more sticky, thereby reducing customer churn.” “Services increase the speed of each user, thereby increasing the lifetime value (LTV) of each customer; services provide APL’s profit growth Power.”
Tigress Financial Partners analyst Ivan Feinseth (Ivan Feinseth) said that by 2021, service revenue may exceed 60 billion U.S. dollars and is gradually achieving this goal. He also believes that if Apple can successfully take advantage of the huge installed user base, then in the next few years, 60 billion US dollars will easily double.
#6: iPhone 13
Of course, Apple will launch another huge product in the form of iPhone 13 in 2021, which is expected to be available this fall.
After the iPhone 12 provides 5G, a full OLED display and a new form factor, the work of the iPhone 13 will be cut to produce the same level of upgrade as the iPhone 12.
Maybe it’s a foldable iPhone?
For now, the details of the iPhone 13 are almost entirely speculation. With the release of this phone for a few months, investors in Apple stocks are not paying more attention here unless there is more specific news.
#7: Dark Horse Products
We know that Apple is working on various projects, such as certain types of self-driving cars or electric car technology, Bluetooth trackers (AirTag) and artificial satellites, which can bypass wireless carriers and send data directly to the iPhone.
The potential changer of Apple’s stock that may be ready for prime time in 2021 is augmented reality (AR) glasses. Alphabet (GOOGL)’s Google tried to enter the consumer augmented reality market through its Google Glass, but failed. Apple has been observing this collapse and has been working hard, including acquiring AR-related companies and improving its ARKit development tools. The latest move is the inclusion of a LiDAR scanner on the iPhone 12 Pro, which can scan rooms or objects to obtain detailed depth information.
Although many analysts are betting on 2022 or 2023, the so-called Apple Glass may land early this year. If Apple Glass does make an unexpected debut next year, it may be the next big selling point, an essential Apple Device.
According to “Fortune” business insights, by 2027, the global AR market is expected to exceed 65 billion U.S. dollars.That is No This technology occupies an important position among consumers. Apple glass may cause the market to explode.
No matter what happens, 2021 is destined to be an important year for Apple.