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Home / US / “We have no slippery slopes in Florida”: The fate of a key swing state may be in the hands of voters in this county

“We have no slippery slopes in Florida”: The fate of a key swing state may be in the hands of voters in this county



Danielle Wade said: “Frankly, I was just dissatisfied with Trump’s antics.” She loaded her 2-year-old son Billy into the stroller. “I am shocked by ignorance and arrogance.”

She looked at her husband and added: “I tell him every day… If I have to listen to (Trump) on TV for another minute, I will jump out of the window.”

Wade represents a key dynamic in communities across the country, including Duval: suburban women who voted for the president four years ago are shrinking, mainly because of his rhetoric. But in Duval, where the vast majority of registered Democrats are black, another political trend is at play: four years after African-American turnout has been severely suppressed, Democrats are investing a lot of resources. Correct these errors.

Danielle Wade and her husband Adam voted separately, Danielle voted for Joe Biden, and Adam voted for Donald Trump (Donald Trump) The president voted.

The fusion of these two factors turned Duval County, which is almost entirely composed of Jacksonville, into the largest swing county among the largest swing states.

Although Democrats and Republicans have hardly reached a consensus here, the county’s Republican Chairman Dean Black and Democratic Chairman Daniel Henry agree that what happens in Duval County may tilt the rest of the state. A series of polls found that the race competition between Trump and Democratic candidate Joe Biden in Florida is very close, and most of the surveys are within range or error.
Check out Trump and Biden’s head-on confrontation

Black said: “There are reasons to think that it may be the single most important county in the single most important state in the most important election in a century.”

The last time Duval voted was in 1976, when the southerner Jimmy Carter overwhelmingly overwhelmed the county. But since then, Duval has become a perennial Republican stronghold in swing states, largely because of voters like Marvis Barnes.

“He controls my future,” Barnes, an administrative assistant at a local school, said after voting for Trump. “The future of the United States of America depends on it.”

Mavis Barnes supported Trump in 2016 and 2020.

But Democrats in the county are hopeful, especially because of the growing distress for the president. The black voter turnout rate in the county declined in 2016, and every operator in the area knows the issues that must be resolved. But the party has increased its voter registration advantage over the past four years, and when it enters election day, it has registered 6% more Democrats than Duval’s Republicans.

Duval’s profits are crucial. If the Democrats can win the county, they will deny that they have ever been in the home country that the president has passed and Republican voters whom he can’t lose in November.

In this case, the feelings of once reliable Republican voters like Wade may be decisive.

She voted for Biden and said: “I don’t believe he will be a panacea.” She was the first Democrat to support in her 35 years of life. “But this country needs some relief.”

“I saw what I must lose”

Trump won the Duval County vote by 1.5 percentage points in 2016, which is much narrower than the votes of former Republican candidates Mitt Romney and John McCain .

Although Democrats see a weak glimmer of hope, there are also concerns that black voters in the county (according to the party, 65% of registered Democrats there are African-Americans) are not supported by Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton that year.

Duval County Democratic Chairman Daniel Henry

The county’s Democratic chairman Henry said: “In the 2016 election, African-Americans did not vote as well as Barack Obama’s re-election campaign.” “And I think this is the key factor why we didn’t pass the end.”

The frustrating turnout and Trump’s weakness in the county led many groups outside the Democratic Party to devote countless hours of work to organizing black voters in the county before the 2018 election.

These efforts paid off: for more than 30 years, Democrats put Duval County and the Democratic governor candidate Andrew Gillum on the front of the ticket. Although Gillum almost lost to Ron DeSantis, Florida Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried will be the only state Democrat to win in 2018. But this election provided proof for Democrats in Duval County that it is possible to turn the county blue and focus on black voters.

Clarence Corbin is one of the voters.

Corbin, who moved to Jacksonville after working as a truck driver in New Jersey two years ago, did not vote in 2016, but eagerly waited in line to vote for Biden a few days before the 2020 election.

Clarence Corbin, a retired truck driver, participated in the 2016 election but was eager to vote against Trump.

Corbyn said that he thinks Biden is “more reasonable” than Trump, but his biggest selling point is that he is facing Trump, and Corbyn calls Trump a “racist.”

He said: “I will not vote for Donald Trump. Anyone can oppose him and they will get my vote.” “I will vote for Donald Duck. I will vote for someone other than Donald Trump.” Anyone. I just want Trump to withdraw.”

This anti-Trump sentiment has led organizations such as the Equal Ground Education Fund led by Jasmine Burney-Clark to commit to working as hard as possible in places such as Duval. Attract as many black voters as possible to vote. Bernie Clark said that a key reason for this interest was Biden’s running mate Kamala Harris, the first black woman to participate in the presidential election of a major party.

She said: “Biden needs a black woman on this ticket to be considered a strong candidate for blacks.” “We only saw an earlier white man. We were connected with politics last year. We saw a black woman who agreed with our problem.”

Even so, dislike of Trump seems to be the motivation for the vast majority of black voters, CNN, and the early voting locations in Duval County.

Franlynn Robinson supported Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Joe Biden gained support in the election.

Franlynn Robinson said that when she heard Trump said on the “Visit Hollywood” tape in 2016 that he could sexually assault women, she felt unwell with Trump. She supported Clinton and was disappointed when the Democratic Party did not win. However, she believes Trump has pushed more Democrats to get out and vote in the past four years.

Robinson said: “You can let your voice speak for you. More and more people are inspired. Maybe I can do something to get me out of trouble, and then go out and try.” “Even if it works or doesn’t work, You also did your part.”

Trump’s campaign focused on polls showing Robinson and other black women’s historical opposition to Trump, hoping that the president would win 20% to 25% of blacks in the November election.

However, in the eyes of black voters in Duval, there are few signs of these hopes being realized.

Air Force veteran Nathaniel Evans poses for a portrait outside the polling place in Jacksonville.

“Candidate Trump said to African-Americans,’What are you going to lose? Nathaniel Evans, a veteran in the Air Force, recalled a sentence from the president’s 2016 campaign. “The past four years , You showed me your intentions. I saw what I must lose. “

“We have no landslides in Florida”

Although people are getting more and more excited about turning Duval County blue, support for Trump is still getting deep support among people like Daryl Shook, who are engaged in a A full-time job and a part-time job, and still have time to volunteer for the Trump campaign.

Shuke said: “God left the president there.” Shuke stood outside an early polling place, holding Trump’s sign in his hand, and waving to the passing cars. Shuke voted for Trump in 2016, but was not overthrown until the early days of his tenure. “Within one month of his presidency, I can’t wait to vote for him again.”

But Shook, the equipment operator in Jacksonville, is on the front line of the division that splits the county, and both parties are excited. After a young man voted, he stood up next to Shook and shouted “F*** Trump”.

Shuke said: “Right there, this is an example of our country moving forward.”

Shuk represents one of the hundreds of volunteers whom Duval County Republican Chairman Black relied on before the November election.

Black does worry about the voter registration deficit faced by his party: “At any time, as long as there is an election close to it, I will not fall asleep.” But he believes that this will be the party’s ground game. Keep the county red in November.

Dean Black, chairman of the Duval County Republican Party, believes that the party’s fieldwork will keep the county red.

Black said that Democrats in the county did not knock on the door because of the coronavirus pandemic. Instead, they put down literature at the door, while Republicans knocked on the door every week.

Black said: “If Duval County turns red again, it will be ground games.” He pointed out that most campaigns believe that a good ground game can make one party get a 3% increase in the final vote. “If you build a ground game and your opponent doesn’t show up, there is no rule of thumb for what it does to you.”

Black concluded: “This is Florida. We did not have a landslide in Florida. If it is not submitted to the Supreme Court, it will be a landslide…. This is a voting.”

Even so, President Duval County still shows signs of decline.

Jeannie Lang, who supported Trump four years ago, said she decided not to vote for any major party candidate four years later.

She said: “My vote in 2016 was the lesser of the two evils. He did not work hard.” “He is a circus. President Trump is a circus. I will not vote for him again.”

Her husband, Kenneth Tarrant (Kenneth Tarrant) did not write any articles, and put forward a better point of view: “The entire presidency is just a tabloid. Every night, “Electronic News”.

But the biggest problem facing Duval Republicans is people like Michael Larson, who is a typical business-minded voter who left the party because of Trump after supporting the Republicans for many years.

Michael Larsen felt he had no residence in Trump's Republican Party.

Larsen, a commercial insurance broker who lives east of Jacksonville, said: “I am a Republican without a homeland, a bit like a political nomad.” Larsen was defeated by Trump during the 2016 election. The candidate attacked the parents Khizr and Ghazala Khan whose son was killed while serving in Iraq. But over time, he has seen that being a Trump supporter in Duval County means being “bold” with those who support it.

He said: “This kind of boasting is the same thing as you.”

Larson said that he plans to vote for Biden in this election because he thinks the former vice president is “stiff-headed” and because he hopes that losing in places like Duval will purge the Republicans.

Larson said: “I think the best thing for the Republicans is that Biden wins, and the party should think about it.”


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