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Home / Health / UW model shows how COVID-19 spreads through communities such as Capitol Hill

UW model shows how COVID-19 spreads through communities such as Capitol Hill




A new study led by the research team University of California Irvine with Washington University Shows how demographics and density can help accelerate the spread of the epidemic in communities such as Capitol Hill.

The University of Washington announced that the “spatial heterogeneity” model released last month, “Internet exposure factors for human interaction, and demographic data can simulate the location and speed of the spread of coronavirus in Seattle and 18 other major cities in more detail” . week.

“The most basic takeaway of this research is risk,” co-author Zack AlmquistSaid assistant professor of sociology at the University of Washington. “People are facing longer risks than they thought. The duration of the virus is longer than expected, and the moment you think you don’t need to be vigilant means that this has not happened yet.”

The model predicts block by block based on demographics, simulation technology, and data on COVID-19 cases since spring 2020, and sometimes block by block the spread of the virus in Seattle. In this model, some areas will be in about three months, while others will be able to smolder for longer without a vaccine.

The graph is based on a research model and shows the time interval between the peak number of cases in the Seattle area-“The color is the time the infection spreads, red occurs first, and blue occurs last (the scale is shown in the lower right corner). Black means no infection (can be You can see it more clearly in the enlarged map around Capitol Hill). In the enlarged map of Capitol Hill in the lower right, the dots represent residents, and the colors again indicate the timing of infection; social relationships are shown as gray/black edges. Zillow provides neighbor boundaries. .” Picture: Zach Almquist/University of Washington)

In the above map based on the spring outbreak data, the hot spots near Seattle appear near the densely populated and younger areas near the University of Washington.

Extremely dense nearby areas such as Capitol Hill also showed relatively rapid outbreaks of positive cases. At the same time, the less dense and sometimes farther crushed areas show slower progress.

But if there are densely populated areas and few wealthy people near Capitol Hill, other communities will also show slow burns. The edge of Broadmoore and Madison Park along Lake Washington was almost blocked by the spread of the virus.

King County/Seattle Public Health’s latest total

The researchers hope that their work will help plan resources more effectively and prepare hospitals to respond to waves, because “dense areas tend to reach peaks faster” and “network connections” can lead to “bursts” On peak infection days, “some areas will have early peak infections, and others will see more based on the relative connections between neighbors.”

This research came when Seattle and King County became the third peak of COVID-19 cases in the fall. Officials encouraged people to use masks more to stop the latest outbreak.


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