Dr. Vin Gupta is nervous.
The lungs and intensive care doctors are not worried about buying the COVID-19 vaccine, nor do they have to worry about being shot alive the next morning. Today show. But, as he told The Daily Beast over the phone on Tuesday afternoon, the faculty at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington was troubled by messages and emails and Twitter mentions from vaccine skeptics, including Threat to viruses. His life, and “the invitation to come makes me wear a mask”.
This is enough to arouse people’s anticipation and anxiety about the backlash he might face after he was actually shot and the challenges facing the countries around him.
In the days after he received his first dose of Pfizer vaccine, Gupta caught the attention of Fox News’ Tucker Carlson and Senator Ted Cruz. The latter referred to Gupta as part of a “quirky, crazy, totalitarian cult”
In other words, reminding people that this coronavirus nightmare is not over yet.
Gupta told The Daily Beast this week: “They blatantly tried to distort what I said to confuse people.” He added that this dishonest attack made him “exhausted”, which he called the “public part” of the job, “because some people try to make doctors and nurses look like they are panicking.”
In the end, the Air Force veteran said that he “is responsible for using his platform in a responsible way and helping them rest assured.”
“If nothing else, the early response to vaccines in the darkest corners of the Internet is an ominous sign.“
Nevertheless, false information and extremist statements may have a major impact on vaccine distribution and pandemic surveillance next year, and life may soon return to normal levels.
As of this week, the United States has approved two emergency COVID-19 vaccines. One was developed by Pfizer and BioNTech in Germany, and the other was developed by Moderna, Massachusetts. More products are in the pipeline, such as vaccines produced by Oxford University and AstraZeneca, which are expected to seek authorization from the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) in the next few months.
But after a year of economic, physical and emotional destruction, more than 18 million Americans have contracted the virus. Although they are clearly seeking help, there are still obvious problems.
Among them: Is there a lower community transmission earlier this year, or is it much safer to just those who have been vaccinated? Will Americans refuse to receive large numbers of vaccinations? Will the virus itself mutate faster than scientists predicted? Will the medical staff eventually rest?
If nothing else, the early response to vaccines in the darkest corners of the Internet is an ominous sign.
In the best case, from now on, vaccine batches will continue to be distributed with relatively small barriers. Then they will quickly join with more vaccines (from the same company or other companies from AstraZeneca), and they can work hard to inject the vaccine to as many Americans as possible. In this case, researchers can also develop a vaccine that can be taken by children under the age of 16, which is not currently approved for Moderna or Pfizer drugs.
In that case, the entire country may get some pandemic relief before spring. Medical staff will take a breather from the shocking physical and emotional losses at work, which will take care of thousands of Americans who are seriously ill and die. The number of severe cases and deaths from COVID will be greatly reduced, which is comparable to hospitals.
“I think we will see some real differences between April and May,” said Dr. Arnold Monto, an infectious disease expert, acting chairman of the Advisory Committee on Vaccines and Related Biological Products, and who supports both vaccines.
He responded to Dr. Anthony Fauci’s comments on Monday, when the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases told The Daily Beast that active vaccination in May, June and July could mean “the vast majority” of The crowd accepted August.
In this case, the big question about vaccines will be answered, and the answer will be good. Can vaccines prevent people with healthy or moderate illness from spreading to others? Yes. Doctors who contract mild or asymptomatic cases after vaccination will not spread it to family members. Does the immunization last at least one year? Maybe longer? Yes. In other words, unless researchers and frontline personnel have a little room to breathe, we do not need to deal with booster injections or terrible viral mutations other than the second initial dose.
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Monto said: “I’m pretty optimistic,” Monto told The Daily Beast, because symptomatic viruses spread more easily than asymptomatic viruses, so the worst answer to this question is possible, even possible.
In this case, although there may be some relatively small transmission areas (super-spreader incidents or outbreaks) throughout the summer, some people can wander outside the house without wearing a mask without feeling guilty. Nevertheless, public health leaders like Fauci point out that, in general, the use of masks will last a long time.
At least in the future, everyone or almost everyone who should or should be vaccinated indeed In spite of the anti-vaccine information or hesitation of previous vaccines, vaccination is still required.
At the same time, researchers will be able to discover, test and disseminate more treatments, such as monoclonal antibodies against severe virus cases, or play a preventive role and protect people who have not been vaccinated.
In other words, even under the most ideal circumstances, by January and February, mass deaths cannot be avoided. As Gupta said: “The vast majority of people who will die from this virus will die, regardless of vaccine distribution strategy.”
It should be noted that public health experts also suspect that a potentially more spreadable variant of the coronavirus is already in the United States, and millions of Americans are still planning to travel on vacation. How many people actually travel, what precautions will be taken when doing so, and what pressures are involved, which creates a lot of uncertainty.
Dr. Jennifer Honey, founding director and professor of the University of Delaware Epidemiology Program, said that in all cases, US hospitals will still handle cases signed on Christmas Day for the next six to eight weeks.
Honey said: “In the next few months, we must endure the current case.”
The worst of 2021 starts when people still gather and flout public health guidelines even when they have not been vaccinated in January. At this point, Horney is not optimistic.
She said: “I think this will be a good time in 2021 until we have any cumulative impact on public health because we still won’t change our behavior.” “We still have to endure the coming hospitalization and death.”
She continued: “By March, our death toll will be close to 500,000.” This echoes the predictions made by colleagues at Washington University Gupta last week. The leading research team’s model used by the White House estimates that 562,000 Americans will die from the virus by April 1, 2021.
“Given the proportion of people who are fully available, will we gain absolute herd immunity? I think it will be a long time.“
– Jennifer Horney
In the worst case, major questions about vaccines will be answered, and the answers are terrible. In addition to serious infections, can vaccines prevent transmission? Do not. It turns out that this vaccine can prevent you from getting sick, but it cannot prevent you from spreading it to people who have not been vaccinated. Does the immunization last at least one year? Maybe longer? will not. We may even be forced to re-evaluate our priority list in order to provide more vaccines to those already vaccinated by the end of the year.
Then came the hesitation of the vaccine. There have been several studies on Americans and vaccines, and as of this week, millions of people still say they will not take the COVID-19 vaccine.Fauci At the beginning of this month, he told The Daily Beast that his “main biggest worry is that a large number of people will not be vaccinated.”
In this case, vaccine skepticism, actual dosage issues, unforeseen side effects, human error in vaccine transportation logistics, or distribution issues (for example, dosage waste due to ultra-cold storage required by Pfizer) hinder efforts Realize any work that has nothing to do with herd immunity. Many people will not be vaccinated until after next year.
Monto said one possibility is that in this case, “we have too many mutations and the vaccine will not work.” What needs to be clear is that the consensus among experts, including Monto, is that this situation is extremely unlikely to happen.
Then, according to Honey, low-income countries that originally planned to see this vaccine by 2024 will take longer to get their share of global supply. In this case, community transmission will not be controlled in the summer as expected, and when the cold weather returns in autumn, things still seem to have not reached the “normal” levels before the pandemic.
In fact, deaths and cases may explode again.
At the same time, the annual health problems have been skipped once again. These problems make people feel unsafe when they work as doctors of the year, including mammograms, colonoscopy, skin cancer examinations, etc. The medical industry has also seen a nightmare An ordinary year. .
Messy, deadly middle
The study found that by April 1, 2021, with the launch of the vaccine, the model of the Institute of Health Measurement and Evaluation will save approximately 34,500 lives. Compared with the situation without a vaccine, the faster launch will save more than 55,400 lives. The model predicts that by April 1, 100.1 million people will be vaccinated in the United States. Despite the faster rollout, the number of people vaccinated may reach 194 million.
Dr. Maimuna Majumder, a computational epidemiologist and faculty member of the “Computational Health Informatics Program” of Harvard Medical School and Boston Children’s Hospital, pointed out that the United States has not been smooth sailing for vaccination. In counties where most of the population is elderly, it is safer than other counties and less immune to community transmission.
She said it was the opposite.
Majumder told The Daily Beast: “We need to be very aware that certain communities that are ravaged by this pandemic will also be in a state of high dryness due to vaccines.” He pointed out that inequalities in health care indicate that The United States is still along the race course. “When we do not vaccinate certain pockets, it means that they will be vulnerable to the epidemic in the future.”
She said it is vital for public health authorities to pay close attention to logistics issues and the distribution of two doses of each vaccine to ensure that two doses are received for each dose received. Majumder added that these problems “will have a disproportionate impact on the underserved population,” he pointed out that these areas may suffer the longest from the virus.
Therefore, Majumder said, the reality is that certain communities will first achieve lower community transmission or herd immunity. But what about the whole country?
Honey said: “I think there are different stages.” “Given that a certain percentage of the fully available population is willing to use it, will we achieve absolute immunity? I think it will be a long time.
“But in the next six months, can we vaccinate everyone who wants to make people’s lives safer?” she asked. “Yes, yes, we can.”