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Home / Business / UBS (UBS) predicts that 80,000 stores will close by 2026

UBS (UBS) predicts that 80,000 stores will close by 2026



A Jos in San Francisco. A. Bank store announced that it will be permanently closed on August 6.

David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

A new report from UBS (UBS) shows that although the pace of store closures has slowed from the peak in 2019, don’t expect probation to last for a long time. This shows that there is still too much retail space per American.

UBS (UBS) utilizes from the International Council of Shopping Centers.

UBS said that this is equivalent to about 59 square feet of shopping mall area for each American family, slightly lower than the 62 square feet in 201

0. Analysts Michael Lasser and Jay Sole explained that it is still much higher than the 55 square feet per household in 2000 and the 49 square feet in 1990.

UBS estimates that by 2026, approximately 80,000 retail stores will be closed across the country, accounting for 9% of the total number of retail stores. Suppose that e-commerce sales at that time grew from 18% today to 27% of total retail sales.

Lasser said in a report to customers: “The lasting legacy of this epidemic is the sharp rise in online penetration.” “We expect it will continue to increase, which will promote the further rationalization of retail stores, especially with some unique support from the government. When the measures subsided.”

Although more and more Americans are ordering more and more goods, from milk and bread to desks and chairs to sneakers on the Internet, for the first time in many years, the number of stores in stores has surpassed those who ceased operations. Many companies are seizing the opportunity to use cheap rent and sufficient vacant space to choose. The growth mainly comes from retailers that retail cosmetics, groceries and discount merchandise, which include Ulta, Dollar General, TJX and Lidl, and they expect the recovery of stores to be strong after the pandemic.

According to data collected by Coresight Research, so far this year, US retailers have announced the closure of 3,169 stores and the opening of 3,535 stores. The company tracked 9,832 closures in 2019-the highest record since it started tracking this data. By 2020, this number will drop to 8,741.

UBS Group (UBS) said that the retail industry has recently been supported by government stimulus measures, and consumers have shifted U.S. dollars from services to goods. Travel and other entertainment activities have also been suspended due to the pandemic. But it said that these trends will be short-lived, leading to an expected decline in retail sales, which will lead to an increase in retail store closures.

UBS (UBS) predicts that in the next few years, most retailers that close clothing will sell clothing and accessories. The company predicts that by 2026, the industry will close approximately 21,000 stores, many of which are located in closed shopping centers.

UBS (UBS) said that in home improvement, grocery and auto parts retail, downtime is expected to be the most limited, because these categories are not vulnerable to the rise of e-commerce.

— CNBC cha teaEl Bloom Contributed to this report.


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