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U.S. electric vehicle sales will increase by 70% year-on-year in 2021



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2015-2021 U.S. EV-BEV and PHEV share in new vehicle sales

Published on October 30, 2020|
Lauren McDonald

October 30, 2020 by Loren McDonald


Although sales of electric vehicles (all-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles) in Europe have increased significantly year-on-year, they are expected to reach 1

0% of new car sales by 2020 and 15% by 2021. In contrast, electric vehicles in the United States (EV) sales growth is quite low.

In my latest EVAdoption analysis, I predict that US EV sales in 2021 will increase by 70% compared to 2020, from 345,285 in 2020 to 585,375 in 2021. Of course, the sales of automobiles and electric vehicles in 2020 will be greatly affected by COVID-19, but sales rebounded strongly in the second half of the year. In addition to the impact of COVID-19, several potential physical sales models are either not on the market or have very small sales. These include Toyota RAV4 Prime and Ford Escape PHEV.

2015-2021 U.S. electric vehicle sales growth year-on-year

Even if potential sales increase by 70% year-on-year, the share of electric vehicles in new car sales will still only reach 3.55%. The growth in 2021 will be a 54% increase in sales share from the 2.3% I expected in 2020. My calculation of sales share is based on total light vehicle sales of 15 million units in 2020 and 16.5 million units in 2021. Auto industry analysts have reached a consensus on overall sales in 2020. Some people predict that sales a few months ago will be less than 13 million vehicles, but they have recently been updated to a high of 14 million vehicles. Therefore, I am optimistic and set the sales at around 15 million.

2015-2021 U.S. EV-BEV and PHEV share in new vehicle sales

According to my analysis in the past, most of the increase in electric vehicle sales in the United States in a given year is due to the new electric vehicles launched this year or late last year. In fact, most electric car models in the U.S. market usually reach their peak sales in the third year. The end result is that the growth of U.S. electric car sales is fundamentally dependent on the introduction of several new electric car models or some sales volume. The big seller is like the Tesla Model 3 we saw in 2018. Do not From the increase in sales of existing electric vehicle models.

In the chart below, you can see in my 2021 electric vehicle sales forecast that about 26% of electric vehicle sales will come from the entire 2021 or the fourth quarter of 2020 to provide new models to American consumers. Taking my 2020 forecast of $345,285, this means that by 2021, a 63% year-on-year increase will be attributed to these “new” electric vehicle models. Ninety-three percent of the year-on-year sales growth in 2021 will come from the sales of these 22 “new” electric vehicles and the increase in sales of Tesla Model Y compared to 2020.

New and existing charts for U.S. electric vehicle sales in 2021

Electric car sales in Europe and the United States

There are some differences between the electric vehicle market in the United States and Europe, but the current main difference is the European Union’s emissions regulations, which may result in some automakers that fail to meet fleet emission targets to be fined between 1 and 2 billion euros per year. This order forces automakers to mass-produce electric vehicles and prioritize their introduction to the European market, while sending fewer electric vehicles to the United States. The result of 2020 is that the number of European consumers buying electric vehicles is 3-4 times that of 2019.

Electric vehicle sales in Europe and the U.S.-BNEF

Chart source: BNEF

In contrast, in the United States, there is no federal order, and there is a lack of competition models in terms of variety and quantity. Fortunately, however, there will be a large number of new electric vehicles on the market in 2021, which will greatly increase sales in the United States.

Of course, Tesla will continue to dominate the sales of electric vehicles in the United States. It is estimated that by 2020, all new electric vehicles (including BEV and PHEV) will account for 65% of sales, and only BEV will account for 84% of sales.

U.S. Electric Vehicle Sales Forecast-Tesla vs Other Brands-2020-October 18, 2020

US BEV Sales Forecast-Tesla vs. All Other BEVs-2020-October 18-2020

2021: The beginning of sustained and steady growth in YOY electric vehicle sales in the United States?

The success of Tesla Model 3 has largely contributed to the roller coaster journey of electric car sales in the United States in recent years. In 2018 and 2019, for every 10 EVs, Model 3 sales accounted for more than 4% (BEV and PHEV) in the United States. But the introduction of Tesla Model Y and more than 20 new EV models will greatly reduce the US’s dependence on Model 3 sales. I predict that Tesla will still account for 54% of US EV sales, but this number has dropped from 65% in 2020

Tesla Model 3's share of U.S. EV sales-2017-2021

By 2021, there are three key factors that will drive the recovery of electric vehicle sales growth, as we saw in 2018. These factors are:

Y-type production scale expansion: The Tesla Model Y can easily become the largest-selling electric car in the United States in 2021. Everything else may be settled, even Tesla’s sister car Model3. The key is that Tesla will continue to expand the output of the Fremont factory, thus attracting buyers to spend more money to buy the third grade Y, and see such things as Volkswagen ID.4, Ford Mustang Mach-E, Volvo XC40 Recharge, RAV4 Prime, Escape PHEV, Kia “CV”, Hyundai IONIQ 5 and other alternative products have the least impact, Chevrolet Bolt EUV, Nissan Ariya and other new electric vehicles enter the market.

Many of these crossovers/SUVs will come out in the second half of 2021, or as we often see on electric vehicles, production may be postponed to 2022. In this case, some of these electric vehicles will also be produced at relatively low production volumes or may be affected by supply. The chain problem-but with nearly two dozen new electric vehicles on the market, each electric vehicle may attract thousands of buyers away from the “should be” Tesla Model 3 and Y buyers.

Economic improvement and relatively low interest rates: By 2021, the economy may stagnate, or with the opening of orders for temporary shelters for COVID-19, businesses start to resume business, and the economy is expected to improve. With the pandemic reopening, hope that millions of workers will return Job position. Auto loan interest rates are also at a recent low, which may stimulate more consumers, who may have more confidence in their employment status next year to try to buy new cars.

In addition, housing loan interest rates have recently been at historically low levels. However, for 30-year fixed mortgages, they have now risen slightly, just over 3%. It is expected that by the first quarter of 2021, interest rates will rise slightly to about 3.25%, but many homeowners are refinancing their houses or purchasing equity loans or credit lines. This trend and some extra cash in the bank can increase consumer confidence, leading more consumers to choose a new car or truck, perhaps even an electric car.

U.S. car interest rates from January 2014 to July 2020-data source Statista

Source: Politician

Two dozen new electric cars: According to my estimation, nearly twenty (22) new BEVs and PHEVs will be launched in the United States by the end of 2020 or 2021. It is hoped that Toyota RAV4 Prime will be postponed due to “supply chain” issues, and Ford Escape PHEV will be postponed due to battery fire problems in Europe’s Kuga PHEV, and will achieve strong sales by 2021. If all goes well, we should also see Ford Mustang Mach-E, Volvo XC40 Recharge, Polestar 2, Audi Sportback, Lucid Air Dream, and of course Volkswagen ID.4. I don’t want any of these models to be sold in large quantities, but when their sales across the industry merge, it will drive significant sales growth in 2021.

Although there may be many factors in the next 14 months that will have a negative impact on electric vehicle sales next year, I believe that 2021 will be the beginning of sustained and steady growth in US electric vehicle sales.


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label: Electric vehicle market share, electric vehicle sales, Tesla, Tesla sales, US electric vehicle market share, US electric vehicle sales


About the author

Loren McDonald (Loren McDonald) wrote about the factors of the popularity of electric vehicles, as well as the opportunities and challenges of the transition to electric vehicles, which has brought companies and entrepreneurs in the automotive, utilities, energy, retail and other industries opportunity. His research and content are published on CleanTechnica, his own blog/website www.EVAdoption.com, and his forthcoming book “Zero Gas Station”, which involves the transition to batteries, electric vehicles and self-driving cars. Great changes and changes in many industries. Shared vehicles.






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