President Trump’s favorite communication platform opened his door. important moment.
In a more unusual election model for 2020, researchers at the George Washington University Graduate School of Political Management used Twitter data to predict Joe Biden’s blowout victory (if it is now an election).
According to the school’s American Rhetorical Public Voice Project, Biden led the state with 334 electoral votes and Trump held 132 votes. About 72 are considered toss, including Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
Based on the average of 270 to Win on the website, state polls show that more traditional models currently show Biden a 272-107 win. For comparison, the site Fifty eight Let Hillary Rodham Clinton (Hillary Rodham Clinton) win 302 votes to 235 votes for Trump.
The model focuses on Twitter data for the 12 battlefield states that are expected to determine elections: Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Iowa, Georgia, Ohio and Texas.
The school stated that its “tweeter” is important because it “measures the pulse of public dialogue about campaign politics.”
The school plans to publish an update every two weeks.
“Trump has changed the way social media (especially Twitter) influences politics. Researcher Meagan O’Neill said: “We feel that his use of Twitter can be quantified and used to better explain polls and election results. Very concerned. She said: “Throughout the election cycle, we will use Twitter data to identify events that reflect changes in support. “
Associate Professor Michael Cornfield said: “Political tweeters are opinion leaders, and the objects and objects they are talking about provide clues in the minds of voters.”