- The demographic structure of Texas is changing rapidly, which may mean a huge change in the US presidential election map.
- According to the New York Times, the early voters in Texas just exceeded the total number of voters in the 2016 general election.
- Because of the low cost of living and other attractive features, more and more Americans are moving to Lone Star State.
- Moving to Texas may affect who will win the state’s 38-vote elections and elections.
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Although President Donald Trump won 38 votes in Texas in the 201
Demographic changes, including the influx of immigrants from other states, may contribute to changes in the political landscape of Texas, which may have a major impact on elections in the coming years.
According to the New York Times, the number of early voters in Texas just exceeded the total number of votes in 2016, making Texas and Hawaii the second state to pass the 2016 vote. During the pandemic, approximately 9 million people in Texas voted, surpassing the nearly 8.97 million Texans who voted in the last election.
This is partly due to the large number of young residents voting: The Los Angeles Times reported that the number of voters under the age of 30 in the state was about three times as many as in 2016.
Texas is one of the important battlefield states, and its electoral votes are second only to California. For decades, Texas has been a reliable red in the presidential race-the last time the state voted for a Democratic presidential candidate was Jimmy Carter in 1976. But this year, the state appears to be within the control of former Vice President Joe Biden, who lags behind Trump by only 2.3 percentage points according to RealClearPolitics.
A large number of immigrants from other parts of the United States may help the state become more democratic. For example, some cities in Texas, such as Houston, are experiencing net migration from millennials. As pointed out by the Pew Research Center, this generation of voters has more Democrats or voters who tend to favor Democrats than voters who are Republicans or favor Republicans.
In the past ten years, the population of the state has increased substantially. According to an analysis by the Census Bureau, 6 of the 10 counties with the largest population growth in the United States from 2010 to 2019 are located in Texas, including Dallas County, which has voted for the Democratic Party in the last three presidential elections .
Some of these promoters come from democratically inclined countries. According to some encouraging data from the Texas Association of Realtors reported by Dallas News, the number of people relocating from reliable blue California to Texas in 2018 increased by 36% compared to 2017. According to the report, 86,164 Californians moved to Texas in 2018, the most among all states analyzed by Texas Realtors. The article also pointed out that many new residents come from the metropolitan areas of Los Angeles, New York and Chicago, which have traditionally been the bastions of the Democratic Party. Of course, it is worth pointing out that although these are areas with a serious blue cast, it is impossible to determine how to vote for the recent transplant plan.
In the pandemic, the long-term trend of Americans moving to Texas seems to continue. According to the US Postal Service’s address change data between February and July, six of the ten largest increase cities are located in Texas, such as Richmond. However, it is important to note that some of these actions may be temporary and people plan to return to their original residences after the pandemic.
According to an analysis by the Pew Trusts, the changing demographics of Texas, especially in the suburbs, can profit from the Democratic Party in the 2018 election. Despite maintaining the Republican majority, “Democrats won two seats in the main suburbs and 12 seats in the House of Representatives.”
However, it will be too early to say that the result of Texas will be. According to FiveThirtyEight’s data, in the latest update, Trump’s chance of winning is 66 out of 100 points, while Biden’s latest chance is 34 out of 100 points. According to RealClearPolitics’ current average, Trump leads by 2.3 percentage points.