Eric Wall, chief investment officer of the crypto hedge fund Arcane Assets, offered a $1 million bet, believing that Bitcoin’s stock flow model will prove to be wrong by 2025.
In a tweet sent to his 32,700 followers on November 12, Wall put forward the terms of placing a bet, willing to pay $1 million to anyone who accepts his bet, that is, the stock-to-stock flow or S2F model will be in Less time “interrupted” for more than five years. The CIO stated that the definition of “breakage” is if the price of Bitcoin (BTC) has not “reached 50% of its target range”.
Although he flagged it in PlanB (@100trillionUSD), the creator of the S2F model, he later added: “This bet is not only for @1
Not sure? I bet $1,000,000, which will destroy the S2FX model in less than 5 years.
This is not a joke. I am willing to pay the third party’s money that we both trust, and you must do the same.
I define “break” = “will not even reach 50% of its target range”. https://t.co/vmDO5UkQoO
-Eric Wall (@ercwl) November 11, 2020
PlanB stated that as the supply continues to decrease, his S2F model will see a bright future for Bitcoin, and analysts estimate (in the iteration of the model) that the BTC price will reach between $100,000 and $288,000 by December 2021. The crypto community does not consider popular models to be a reliable indicator of Bitcoin’s long-term price movements.
Another crypto hedge fund figure decides to step in and provide greater returns to those willing. Ari Paul, CIO of BlockTower Capital, said on Twitter that he will use the same odds of 3:1 for the S2F model and may pay $3 million for a $1 million bet. Paul didn’t seem to be attracted by the spirit of betting.
Paul said: “I am willing to bet without considering the accuracy of S2FX at all, because it is a simple arbitrage.” “Buy Bitcoin and sell S2FX at a 2:1 price. It is impossible to lose. “
Although Paul hinted that he thought “no one would bet”, he used the bet as a joke as a joke. [Wall] On this fund, it even reaches 1 million or even 100,000 US dollars.” No matter what happens to the price of Bitcoin, it will not waste a lot of time.
If the bet is accepted and the S2F model fails, they will each receive $1 million. However, if the price model proves to be correct and even underestimates the future growth of Bitcoin, then they will have a lot of money to pay, because crypto assets will reach astronomical value.
Wall said: “I can lose in that situation.”