According to a report, during the global Covid-19 pandemic, China performed better than the United States. In ten years, China will replace the United States as the world’s largest economy.
The Center for Economic and Business Research said it now expects that China’s economic value in US dollars will surpass that of the United States by 2028, five years earlier than expected a year ago.
The UK-based consulting company stated in its annual growth prospects annual rankings for 1
CEBR stated that, given that the United States is expected to shrink by 5% this year, China will narrow the gap with its biggest competitor. Overall, the global GDP is expected to fall by 4.4% this year, the largest one-year decline since World War II.
Douglas McWilliams, vice chairman of CEBR, said: “The big news of this forecast is the growth rate of the Chinese economy. We expect it to become a high-income economy during the current five-year plan period (2020-25). And we expect it will surpass the United States five full years from a year ago.
“Other Asian economies are also competing for seats in the alliance. The lesson for Western policymakers who have performed relatively poorly during the pandemic is that they need to pay more attention to what is happening in Asia rather than simply looking at each other. “
CEBR stated that China’s share of global GDP has increased from 3.6% in 2000 to 17.8% in 2019 and will continue to grow. Countries with high per capita incomes by 2023 will exceed US$12,536 (£9,215).
Even so, the standard of living in China will still be much lower than that of the United States and Western European countries. In the United States, per capita income is slightly higher than $63,000, while in the UK, per capita income is slightly higher than $39,000.
CEBR stated that leaving the EU will not prevent the UK-possibly becoming the world’s fifth largest economy in 2020-from becoming one of the best performing economies in the next 15 years.
The consulting firm said: “We expect that the trend growth rate in the UK will increase by 4.0% annually from 2021-25, 1.8% annually from 2026-30, and 1.8% annually from 2031-35.”
“It is expected that by 2024, the UK will be overtaken by India, but by 2025, the UK will be at the top of the list. By 2035, the UK GDP in dollar terms is expected to be 40% higher than France, its long-term rival and neighboring France .. “
After overtaking France and the United Kingdom last year, India fell behind the United Kingdom due to the sharp drop in the price of the rupee. But this decline will be short-lived. By 2035, the world’s second most populous country is expected to become its third largest economy.
CEBR said that after a period when the impact of global heating has become faster than previously feared, environmental issues will begin to have a serious impact on the shape of the world economy in the next 15 years.
“It is estimated that by 2035, the sea level will increase by 45 centimeters from the base in 2000. The forecast two years ago was that by 2030, the sea level will rise by 20 centimeters.”
CEBR said that as more and more countries make plans to transition to a zero-carbon net economy in the next few decades, demand for fossil fuels will weaken and oil prices will also fall. According to the report, by 2035, the cost of a barrel of crude oil will fall below $30.