The internal elections have also raised their forecasts of how many seats the Democratic Party may get in each seat. In the Senate, there is now a net increase of four to six seats, which puts the Democratic Party in an advantageous position on the road to a majority. They need to get four seats in the net seats. If the vice president breaks the Senate relationship, three seats are needed to win a seat in the White House.
The most notable of the two racial rating changes in the Senate is Kansas, which changed from a Lean Republican to a Lean Republican. Senator Pat Roberts (Pat Roberts) is about to retire, leaving a vacancy in Trump with close to 21 points. Since 1932, Democrats have not won a seat in the Senate here, so in theory, this should be an easy choice for Republicans.
But Republican Rep. Roger Marshall (Roger Marshall) did not provide much relief in the final stages of the campaign. His main victory defeated Kris Kobach and relaxed Republicans. Instead, the National Republican Group had to spend money for him, and former Republican Democrat Barbara Bolier raised nearly $13 million in the third quarter. Her income at the beginning of October was about 7.6 million U.S. dollars, while Marshall’s income was 1.7 million U.S. dollars.
Colorado’s transition from “tilted democracy” to “lean democracy” is more predictable. Republican Senator Cory Gardner (Cory Gardner) is running for the second president. Trump lost 5 points in 2016 and may lose further in November. The battle for vacancies in the Supreme Court has further intensified the nationalization of races, reminding voters that although Gardner said he loves the environment and bipartisan cooperation, he is still a Republican senator.
In the House of Representatives, “internal elections” now expect the Democrats to get 10 to 20 seats. Considering that Democrats are defending their historic midterm gains in 2018, this is an extraordinary position for Democrats, many of whom were in the region Trump was responsible for four years ago. But it turns out that even in areas where the president wins, the president poses a drag on voters and Republicans, and he is helping Democrats to attack the red areas that were not on the battlefield at the beginning of the cycle. Republicans need 17 seats to get a majority, which seems very, very unlikely.
Suburban seats move towards the Democratic Party
In a world where race in the House of Representatives has become more nationalized, Trump’s indifference is bad news for Republicans in Congress — even long-time incumbents in the traditional red zone.
For example, according to data from Inside Elections, Arizona’s sixth district voted for Trump in 2016, but it has one of the highest rates of college education among the college education represented by the Republican Party. Although Rep. David Schweikert (David Schweikert) did not give any help to his moral issues, this is one of the reasons why it transitioned from the “Tilt Republican” to the “toss”. At the same time, Biden and Democratic Senate candidate Mark Kelly (Mark Kelly) are likely to promote emergency room doctor Democratic Hiral Tipirneni (Democratic Hiral Tipirneni), the doctor has exceeded five terms in office.
The second district of Arkansas, represented by Republican Rep. Frank Hill, and the second district of Missouri, represented by Republican Rep. Ann Wagner, have similar suburban vibrancy, which makes them possess in the Democratic Party in an unprecedented way. Competitiveness. The internal elections moved Hill’s region from the Lean Republican Party to the Tilt Republican Party, and moved the Wagner region from the Tilt Republican Party to Toss-up. Wagner’s defeat will bring losses to Republican women. There were only 13 Republican women in this Republican meeting, two of whom did not run for re-election.
The vote in the suburbs of Long Island threatened Trump’s ally, New York Lee Zeldin, who was facing Nancy Goroff, a Democrat, the former chairman of the Stony Brook Chemical Department. Since the start of the competition, she has been relying on her scientific background, but this pandemic-and Trump’s contempt for scientific norms-gave her another opportunity to think that Trump and Zardin should be gone. Internal elections moved the race from possible Republicans to Lean Republicans.
Biden’s prowess may also threaten freshman Texas Rep. Chip Roy, who is confronting former governor candidate Wendy Davis. Race moved from Tilt Republicans to Toss-up.
The highest number of votes may also increase the chances of the Democratic Party in the 18th District of Florida. Republican Representative Brian Mast is running for the third term in the state. Race moved from the category of “Reliable Republican Party” to “Possible Republican Party”.
The Democratic odds also look better in certain suburbs they defend, including the six counties that were flipped in 2018. The internal election changed the contest between Democratic Rep. Lucy McBass and former Republican Rep. Karen Handel in the Sixth District of Georgia from Tielt democracy to lean democracy. The third district of Kansas was another pick-up in 2018, changing from “possible democracy” to “substantial democracy,” thus losing a competitive seat. Similarly, the third district of Iowa also shifted from “democratic tilt” to “lean democracy.” District 3 in New Jersey changed from a lean democracy to a possible democracy, while the 32nd District in Texas changed from a possible democracy to a solid democracy.
The 26th District of Florida was the highlight for Republicans this summer. When Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Jimenez and Trump recruited new recruits, Cuban-American voters performed better. It seems that they have the opportunity to give Democratic freshman Rep. Debbie Mucasel. Powell was shortlisted. But it is difficult to see Jimenez overcome the national environment in this region, Clinton won this victory, Biden is likely to succeed. It has risen from tossing to tilting democracy.
Other seats turn to Democrats
It’s not just suburbs where Democrats are expected to do better. Some very rural seats or seats that Trump did well in 2016 are also moving towards the Democratic Party.
For example, the second district of Maine is completely out of the list of competing seats and has transformed from lean democracy to substantive democracy. Trump easily passed through the vast northern region of the state in 2016-he can still win this year, but given Biden’s involvement in white working-class voters, his chances of winning may be much smaller . This is a problem for the president, because he is counting on voting in elections here. In addition to Biden making this seat competitive, Democratic Rep. Jared Gordon (Jared Golden) used the ranking voting method in the House of Representatives election for the first time in the country in 2018 to flip the region, and he was in the region. Has a strong reputation and has a financial advantage over his Republican challenger.
After Democrat Joe Cunningham flipped the Charleston area in 2018, another area where Trump performed well in 2016-South Carolina’s First District-should be Republicans’ biggest acquisition opportunity. But the coastal areas don’t look like Trump’s benefit this year, and Senate competition may also increase the Democratic vote. It shifted from “tilting democracy” to “lean democracy.”
Republicans hope to target Rep. Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania in the eighth district set out by Trump. But Biden’s advantage in the state will not help Republicans replace the four-term Democrats, which is now a solid democratic race.
Democrats are increasingly excited about taking over multiple Trump districts. The first district of Minnesota is a rural area that Trump hyped up. It was one of the three areas that Republicans flipped over in 2018. Republican Rep. Jim Hagdorn narrowly won the public seat at the time. But freshman Republicans faced ethical issues in a game with Democrat Dan Feehan and struggled to raise funds. It moved from Tilt Republicans to Toss-up.
In the Fifth District of Virginia, the underfunded Republican Party defeated the Republican Party in a convention. For Democrats, candidates who have sufficient funds and can take advantage of the national environment appear brighter. It changed from Lean Republican to Lean Republican.
Penn State auditor Eugene DePasquale has been a Democrat in the Tenth District of Pennsylvania and has long been keen on recruiting recruits. They moved from the Republican Party (Tilt Republican) to Toss-up. He is trying to seat the Republican Representative Scott Perry, a member of the House Freedom Group. In Illinois, Republican Representative Rodney Davis (Rodney Davis) seems to be in greater danger in a game with Democrat Betsy Dirksen Londrigan in the 13th District. They moved from the Tielt Republican Party (Tolts-up).
At the beginning of the cycle, it is difficult to imagine that the 11th District of North Carolina might be competitive. But when the court forced the re-division of the area, its red color was reduced, and now, Meadows is in the White House, it is an open seat. It changed from a reliable Republican to a possible Republican.
The seat moves towards GOP
Compared with the beginning of the cycle, Republicans have far fewer pick-up opportunities. However, the two seats controlled by the Democratic Party are moving forward. Both of these are seats that Trump won. Even if he failed in 2016, he is expected to achieve good results again in 2020.
The seventh district of Minnesota is the seat of the Democrats Trump held with the greatest advantage in 2016. The Chairman of the Agriculture Committee, Rep. Collin Peterson (Collin Peterson) is world-renowned in a large area and is widely regarded as the last person to sit down. But in the past two cycles, he has faced an underfunded Republican challenger. This time, his opponent-former governor Michelle Fischbach (Michelle Fischbach) actually has money and national party support. Internal elections moved the seventh district from “democratic tilt” to “upward push.”
Democrats are also defending in the second district of New Mexico, and Rep. Xochitl Torres Small’s public seat was flipped in 2018. She locked the rematch against Republican Yvette Errell. The race moved from Tilt Democracy to Throw.
The 23rd District of Texas is one of the four Clinton districts still controlled by the Republican Party. It is believed that the Democrats have performed particularly well in electoral districts this year, and Republican Representative Will Hurd did not run for re-election. Gina Ortiz Jones, a Democrat who lost by a narrow margin two years ago, is ahead of Tony Gonzales, a Republican who is stuck in a protracted election. But the encouraging national environment did not spread this border region to almost half of the other states. It shifted from lean democracy to tilted democracy.