Therefore, there is no way to cast a net around Covid-19 and tighten it to zero. Its animal host will always provide it with an escape hatch. However, until the potential human victims of all diseases are protected by the vaccine, it is actually useless to start thinking about alternative hosts. So far, we are still far away. As long as people somewhere in the world are still waiting to take the first picture, Covid-19 will breed a human host. Moreover, it is possible to mutate to create the variants that now appear on a global scale.
This increases the possibility that as the virus changes, we need to constantly patch the vaccine to keep up with its development. Johnson & Johnson CEO Alex Gorsky said at a CNBC event earlier this month: “I think most people think that in the next few years, we are likely to get Covid-1
If Covid cannot become a disease, we will try to quickly contain it-for example, we launch a vaccine to fight the Ebola epidemic-it must become a disease of our plan, such as measles and influenza. With measles, we have been vaccinated since childhood. For influenza, we re-vaccinate every year and adjust the vaccine content to keep up with the evolution of the virus. We vaccinate those people because they have to pay such a high price. In the past 10 years, influenza has caused 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the United States each year. Globally, measles causes 140,000 deaths every year.
We cannot guarantee whether Covid-19 (if epidemic) will be as ferocious as measles or become mild. Before the pandemic began, six coronaviruses were known to infect humans: the initial SARS in 2003; and the SARS outbreak in 2009. MERS, produced in 2012; there are four more that cause seasonal diseases. The last four, which are now considered endemic, account for about 25% of our colds every winter. They show that certain coronaviruses can be something we don’t like, but don’t worry. (Although they are not always so mild. One of them was recently related to the global respiratory and neurological epidemics of 1889 and 1890; historically known as the “Russian flu”, the name is a guess. The reason is that the influenza virus was not discovered until 40 years later.)
Jennie Lavine, a postdoctoral fellow at Emory University, recently wrote a paper that simulates the potential of the novel coronavirus, trying to predict the future of Covid-19 based on data collected from four endemic coronaviruses, SARS and MERS Way of behavior. Studies have found that Covid-19 may reach the state that currently occupies these four endemic diseases and regularly causes most mild illnesses-but the outcome will depend on the child’s cyclic disease manifestations during the first infection, because this is the first case Infection causes the immune system to respond quickly.
Of course, this is the same function that a vaccine performs. Our body produces multiple immunity to pathogens. Lavine said it is too early to collect the long-term data we need to understand whether Covid-19 vaccination and childhood infections can provide protection in such a way that any subsequent infections only produce mild disease.
However, it is now assumed that the virus will not become a mild infection like a cold, but is still an unpredictable danger. This prospect makes it urgent to eliminate vaccine nationalism and distribute vaccines globally as soon as possible. This is not only to protect people from disease, but also to deprive the virus of the host in which the virus can mutate.