Does the increase in COVID cases herald a third surge?
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Dr. Helen Butcher, director of the Department of Geographic Medicine and Infectious Diseases at Tufts Medical Center, said: “It is described as being on a cliff.” Boucher said that she found the relevant figures, but still hopes that the upward trend will not change. For substantial growth.
Nancy Krieger, professor of social epidemiology at Harvard̵
Krieger said: “All ingredients can work well.” “The question is whether we have leadership and information transmission capabilities” to ensure that people engaged in public work are adequately protected and everyone Wear a mask and keep your distance in public.
Dr. Megan Ranney, an emergency room doctor at Rhode Island Hospital, said she has seen a significant increase in the number of people entering the emergency room with COVID-19. She said: “By the end of autumn or winter, this has not reached an overwhelming level.” “What worries many of us is that we know that the disease is spreading exponentially. This is the tip of the iceberg we will see in two weeks. … To be honest, how big the iceberg is. It depends on our actions.”
What prompted the increase in cases?
“It’s not entirely clear yet,” Boucher said. “What we are seeing are infections among young people,” and many older people have been vaccinated.
Governor Charlie Baker has been criticized for allowing restaurants and public spaces to be opened. In fact, dozens of clusters in March were related to retail stores, restaurants and food courts, and sporting events. However, according to state data, the vast majority of clusters occurred within households, with nearly 7,000 outbreaks involving 18,000 people.
Boucher said: “My advice to people is to avoid indoor gatherings unless you are in your own small circle or among people who have been vaccinated.”
Krieger said: “This is the dynamic feature of the virus.” “It doesn’t matter whether people are tired of taking preventive measures.” Once people start to merge, the virus will seize the opportunity to infect them. And, as new variants spread more easily, these infections will spread more quickly.
“We are all tired of it,” Lanni said. “You feel the end. It is human nature to let go of our vigilance.” However, most people still have no immunity to COVID-19. She said: “There are still many people there who can still be infected.”
Ranney said that the prevalence of the B.1.1.7 variant from the United Kingdom is easier to spread than the original coronavirus, which may explain the increase in some cases. Other variants B.1.351 and P.1 found in South Africa and Brazil have also been found in Massachusetts, and P.1 has risen rapidly in the past few weeks.
Ranney said that these vaccines are indeed resistant to these variants, but not very good against the original version of the coronavirus, which suggests that people may need to boost injections.
Later this month, all adults will be eligible for vaccination. Will vaccination solve the problem quickly?
It depends on how many people are taking the vaccine and how fast the injection is. In Massachusetts, only one-third of the population (approximately 2.3 million people) has received a dose of the vaccine, and half of this number has been fully vaccinated.
Bucher of Tufts University said: “This is a race to get vaccinated as quickly and safely as possible.”
In order to get things back to normal, what percentage of vaccines do I need to get? She said: “We don’t know what the magic number is.” The estimated range is 65% to 90%.
“There is a reason for hope,” Boucher said. “We are getting vaccinations, and our state is doing a good job of getting vaccinations. … This trend tells us that we just need to stay longer on masks and mitigation measures.”
Harvard University epidemiologist Krieger (Krieger) added notes. She said: “Things are not going well, that’s when we opened up too quickly.”
Although the epidemic seems to have started to weaken about a month ago, the level of the case has remained stable at a much higher level than last summer. And now, they moved up again. Krieger said: “This means more infections and more deaths, which are completely preventable.”
Even if the vaccine distribution is accelerated, there is still a one-week delay for everyone from the first injection to complete immunity. Ranney of Rhode Island Hospital said: “No matter what you do today, the next two weeks will be very difficult.
At the same time, although better weather encourages people to spend more time outdoors, the rate of infection may begin to slow. “If people can continue to wear masks and avoid interacting with people outside the family, it will have a huge impact on future cases,” Lenny said.
When does it finally end?
Boucher said: “There are many reasons to hope that we can get there, and we will reach the point where the numbers will drop and stay down.”
Ranney pointed out that COVID-19 will always be with us, but in the end, like other vaccine-preventable diseases, it will be at a controllable level.
Ranney said: “I hope that by July, we will be able to get close to normal.” “How close we are to normal depends on how many people are vaccinated. …These vaccines are very effective. Until most of us are vaccinated. Later, the end came.”
Martin Finucane of Globe staff contributed to this report.
You can contact Felice J. Freyer at firstname.lastname@example.org. Follow her on Twitter @felicejfreyer.