Watch: Why are coronavirus cases on the rise, but the death rate is still relatively low? Found here
The UK may be in the midst of the second wave of coronavirus, and the number of daily confirmed cases has exceeded the so-called peak of the first outbreak.
On September 27, another 5,693 people tested positive for infection. Due to fewer human reports, the “weekend effect” may have underestimated the possibility of infection.
However, this is higher than the 5130 cases confirmed on April 8, when the government reported a record 1073 deaths from infection on the same day.
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However, although coronavirus cases are accelerating in most parts of the UK, the death toll is still relatively low. The figure released on September 27 recorded 17 deaths within 28 days of the positive test.
The local lockdown seems to be the “new normal”, and many people undoubtedly wonder why the rising number of coronavirus cases corresponds to the smaller number of deaths.
“If we find 1 out of 20 cases, we are lucky”
An analysis of official data suggests that the true peak of the coronavirus in the UK may be dimmer than the ministers said.
According to the Guardian, the actual death toll on April 8 was 1,445.
Until April 29, the death toll announced at the Downing Street press conference only took into account those who died in the hospital after testing positive for the coronavirus.
Thereafter, deaths in all cases-including deaths that showed symptoms but were not wiped-were included.
Analysis shows that during the peak of the epidemic, the United Kingdom died of the coronavirus for 22 consecutive days every day, with more than 1,000 deaths.
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As well as many unreported deaths, inadequate testing means that thousands of coronavirus cases may have been missed.
“The test is much higher now,” Professor Michael Tildesley of the University of Warwick told Yahoo UK.
“The 6,000 confirmed cases today are very different from the 6,000 confirmed cases in April.
“Compared with the more cases we are observing now, we have not really reached the peak.”
Professor James Naismith of the Rosalind Franklin Institute agreed to Yahoo! UK: “The number of cases is not comparable. In March, we may have 100,000 to 200,000 cases per day. We cannot Measure them.
“we [now at] Few cases [we were at during the start of the outbreak].
“We are lucky if we find one in ten cases before conducting extensive testing.”
Health Minister Matt Hancock said on September 24: “We estimate through surveys that there are more than 100,000 people every day. [in April] Infected with this disease, but we only found about 6,000 and tested positive. “
Encourage people with a typical fever, cough or loss of taste or smell to be tested with coronavirus.
If the test result is positive, the NHS testing and tracking system staff will keep in touch and ask the patient how long they have spent most recently.
Then, the patients and their contacts were asked to self-quarantine for up to 14 days, “Do not leave home for any reason.”
The NHS Test and Trace app was launched in England and Wales on September 24. It scans users’ local areas for possible positive cases they may encounter.
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The entire testing and tracking system faces severe criticism, and experts call it a “weak and unfair defense.” [a] False sense of security”.
Despite this, approximately 220,000 individual tests are still being processed every day, and the government hopes to increase the capacity to 500,000 by Halloween.
“we [now] Professor Tildesley said: “The people tested in the community are not just hospitals or nursing homes.”
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“Case always rises before death”
Although the current death toll seems to be reassuringly low, experts worry that unless the spread is controlled through local blockades and other restrictions, the death toll will increase.
“There is a lag,” Professor Tildesley said. “The cases always rise before hospitalization and death.”
On September 27, 266 people in the UK were hospitalized for the coronavirus, compared with 3,564 on April 1.
Although the hospitalization rate is still low, the number of cases in younger age groups has increased, and their likelihood of complications or symptoms is greatly reduced, but infections are easily transmitted.
“Young people may [go on to] Infect elderly relatives. “Professor Tildesley said.
The National Bureau of Statistics revealed on September 28 that “the positive rate [in England] With age, the social distance between people under 35 and six or more people between 18 and 69 years old.
“[An infection] It is always spread among young people because they are out and social. “Professor Naismith said. “Most young people don’t even know that they have mastered it.” “
Dr. Michael Head from the University of Southampton told Yahoo in the United Kingdom that “in recent weeks, France and Spain have demonstrated the transition from a young population to a vulnerable population”.
If vulnerable individuals do become infected, then advances in treatment may lead to better results than before.
At the beginning of the outbreak, people who needed hospitalization received supportive care (such as ventilation), and their immune systems could naturally fight the coronavirus.
In June, scientists at Oxford University discovered that the low-cost steroid dexamethasone can reduce the risk of death in ventilated patients by a third.
Later, a review of seven studies coordinated by the World Health Organization (WHO) found that dexamethasone and other steroids, hydrocortisone and methylprednisolone reduced the risk of death by about one-fifth (20%) .
Behind the results, the World Health Organization issued guidelines to include steroids in the treatment of critically ill patients.
The NHS said it will “act immediately” to ensure that those who can benefit from steroids get them, “adding a weapon to the arsenal in the battle against COVID-19 around the world”.
Professor Tildesley said: “We know we have better medicines to treat hospitalized patients.”
“Hospitalization may increase, but the number of deaths will not increase. Patients who are sick enough to be hospitalized may have better results.”
Professor Naismith believes that some people believe that those who are vulnerable enough to severely contract the coronavirus may die in the first wave.
He said: “There are always new old people.” People supplement the supply of old people.
“People are [now] Six months old, six months more vulnerable, more people [been diagnosed with] diabetes [than at the start of the outbreak]. “
Professor Naismith said that any proposal to reduce cattle mortality is “just a hypothesis.”
Professor Tildesley agreed, adding: “There is still a long way to go before the immunity of the herd.”