Since I have complained repeatedly in 2020, I should emphasize that the Federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has involuntarily begun to publish realistic estimates of Covid-19 in the United States.
It’s hard to describe it as a deliberate mistake, but at least a timely addendum reminds us that any fourth wave will focus on those who have not yet infected about 100 million people and have gained a certain degree of immunity because there may already be 100 million people. Was vaccinated.
This means that the fourth wave will be mainly confined to unvaccinated young people who have worked diligently throughout the process and are now mixing and being exposed to risks in ways that were not available a few months ago.
Similarly, the results of California, Florida, Germany, Sweden and other regions also show that there is any simple link between mandatory lockdowns and successful social distancing practices. Most of the conclusions are this: Like Florida, the peak of the case occurred long after New York or Northern Italy. Some places benefited from having time to think and consider and follow more subtle methods to realize the arrival of Covid.
We may find that lock-in measures come too late, are not complied with, or are irrelevant to what people choose in the choice of when and how to put themselves at risk.