London-“An extraordinary victory” is the result of “excellent work” and a deal “delivered” for the British people.
Even before the publication of the text of the post-Brexit trade agreement, lawmakers loyal to Prime Minister Boris Johnson praised him for solving problems that have plagued British politics for nearly five years.
When Congress meets next week to approve the document, the problem will only be the size of the majority of Mr. Johnson, and the deal will cut close economic ties with the European continent on January 1, nearly 50 years later. Even the opposition Labor Party will officially support it, believing it is better than nothing.
Hardline Brexit supporters have not yet reviewed the agreement, and they may not like every word in the densely packed treaty text and annexes of about 2,000 pages. A small group of people didn’t want any trade agreement at all, never really trusted Mr. Johnson, and might still cause trouble for him.
The organization representing the British trawler fleet has expressed disappointment over the compromise in fishing rights. The Scottish government has criticized the deal, arguing that it strengthens the reasons for Scotland’s independence.
Charles Grant, director of the European Reform Center of the research institute, said: “In the short term, the Conservative Party is very united and revolves around Boris Johnson’s difficult Brexit, but many Britons have never I thought that the UK would vote for it.”.
Grant added that the agreement has only brought limited economic benefits to the UK, and friction with the EU is likely to continue. Grant said that the relationship with the EU after Brexit may not be more stable than before.
He said: “In the long run, the rift may reopen.” He added that once the transaction restrictions are reached, the pressure may increase.
Anand Menon, professor of European politics at King’s College in London, said that the pandemic has plunged the UK into its worst recession in three centuries, so post-Brexit politics remains highly turbulent. .
The Brexit debate has poisoned the work of the Conservative Party, which has long been known for its pragmatic and successful pursuit of power rather than adherence to political doctrine.
Now, despite achieving the goal of “Brexit”, Mr. Johnson still cannot believe that the split is over.
Menon said: “Europe has turned the Conservative Party into an ideological party, and has basically hindered the Conservative Party from taking power.”
Others tried and failed to end this collusion dispute, including Mr. Johnson’s predecessor, David Cameron (David Cameron) and his rivals from Britain’s most prestigious schools Eaton College and Oxford University.
Mr. Cameron once famously called for his party to stop “attacking” Europe. However, after being harassed by internal Eurosceptics, he took a fatal gambling action, which was an effort doomed to fail in the European Union referendum held in 2016.
Mr. Johnson is the beneficiary of this miscalculation, and the lesson he seems to have learned from recent history is that any Conservative party leader is at risk to the rights of Eurosceptics.
He ran for Brexit and became prime minister because of this. Last year, his party legislators were expelled from the United Kingdom, opposed to the clear break with the EU, and united the Conservative Party on his tough stand.
However, when reaching a trade agreement, Johnson took the risk of his plan to disappoint a group of pure Brexit supporters who helped him win power and did not want to reach an agreement at all.
The conservative Brexit congressmen are quite influential and are known as the European Research Group, but Mr Johnson has been working hard to get them to support him. Menon said it will be very important how many of these MPs oppose him and who they are.
He said: “If 20 to 40 people scream’betrayal’, that will change the situation.”
The populist anti-European Union politician Nigel Farage (Nigel Farage) is waiting. He has now renamed his Brexit party to Reform UK and has shown his skills in stripping away Conservative supporters in the past. .
On Thursday, Mr. Farage cautiously welcomed Mr. Johnson’s deal, but the important warning is that he has not read the fine text.
Some supporters of Brexit have always believed that betrayal will exist in any treaty negotiated with the European Union, and even before the agreement was reached, it was condemned as betrayal in a series of British surrenders to Brussels. A commentary in the pro-Brexit Daily Telegraph argued that the government “is calculated carefully at all times.”
Others agree with this analysis, but from a more pro-European perspective, and point out that even official forecasts indicate that in the Johnson deal, Britain will suffer losses due to the substantial economic growth.
After the UK will leave the EU’s huge single market and customs union on January 1, many companies will notice the limitations of the Johnson Agreement. The agreement failed to ensure many things for the service industry, for example, accounting for about 1% of the total value of the service industry. Four fifths of the British economy.
The agreement increased barriers, rather than eliminating barriers to manufacturing and agriculture. Therefore, although the import and export of goods will not be taxed, they will be subject to additional inspections-so-called non-tariff barriers.
Port delays (France only briefly foretells all passengers and fears from the UK, while the UK is just an ugly omen) will bring huge costs to companies, which will have to add an estimated 20 million new customs declarations every year and face Other compliance costs.
Grant of the European Reform Center said: “In the long run, this is a bad deal. The moderates of the Conservative Party may try to reach a better deal.” He pointed to the Conservative Party’s traditional connection with business.
However, the biggest danger for the UK may be that it is now caught in the awkward position of the European economic system, into trouble, into trouble, and its relationship with the EU is as always politically flammable.
Experts say that the United Kingdom is a major land economic power adjacent to the European Commonwealth of Ireland, and it will not be able to escape the gravitational pull of a huge trading bloc, which far exceeds other uncontested neighbors.
For example, Switzerland is in continuous and painstaking negotiations with the European Union on its relationship.
Brexit lawmakers may urge the British government to depart from European standards and laws and test the limits of regaining national sovereignty. Under the agreement, this is possible, but if the European Union considers any measures aimed at reducing such measures, the issue can be resolved by independent arbitration and tariffs can be imposed.
Mr. Johnson may continue to implement controversial rules out of his own judgment, either to promote his industrial strategy, or to re-ignite the debate on the political division of Europe, thereby bringing him to power.
Either way, the mechanism established by his transactions to resolve trade disputes caused by divergent economic rules may provide future highlights. These and other cross-channel conflicts will certainly be incited by more fanatics in the British tabloid media.
Grant said: “This means that there is an almost permanent negotiation process between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Every time it happens, it will arouse people’s emotions and speech.”