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The best-ranked draft deal and why the giant Vikings gain value



Compromise trades in the NFL Draft are still free money. Although there is a lot of evidence-including Wharton School Professor Cade Massey (Cade Massey) and Nobel Prize winner Richard Thaler (Richard Thaler) research shows that teams often overpay when trading, but the market Still inefficient, the fleet continues to pay premiums, rising year after year.

Essentially, this boils down to overconfidence in player evaluation: for example, the difference in the chances of WR2 over WR3 does not justify the price paid by the team (see: The price paid by the 49ers for Trey Lance vs. (The price Bear Stearns paid for Justin Fields and the price the Patriots paid for Mike Jones).

In order to determine the reasonable value of the draft picks, we have our own draft chart, which is based on the use of Pro Football Reference̵

7;s approximate value index to regress the historical performance of the picks’ players (similar to the work done by many others, including Chase Stuart in 2013). In contrast, the stale Jimmy Johnson chart exceeds the rate at which players’ talents decline as the draft picks pass. Our analysis is not like Messi and Taylor’s research, including the salary difference of the selected personnel, which will lead to a more serious deviation from the Johnson chart.

If there is a year to trade, it is this year. Due to the circumstances of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is less information about the outlook this season, so more uncertainty may result in a flatter talent curve than usual. This means that the value of first-round picks may be lower than usual, while the value of mid-round and/or rear-round picks is higher than usual (because the probability of falling gems is higher than usual).

In this bizarre year of the evaluation draft, an even stranger thing happened: the giants general manager Dave Gettleman (Dave Gettleman) traded for stock for the first time in history. Not only did he do this, but he did it in the most valuable way in the entire draft.

According to the AV-based chart, we will break down the five most valuable transactions from this year’s draft transactions (only in draft transactions, so 49ers-Dolphins-Eagles transactions are not included), starting with “Trader Dave”.

trading: The Bears get the 11th pick; the Giants get the 20th and 164th picks, the first and fourth rounds of 2022
Value winner: giant
remaining value: First round pick

First of all, I would say that trading is not a zero-sum game. This trade is a good example: it is a win-win situation. For a team that switched to a quarterback, the value calculation has changed-the “shooting rate” for picks is much higher than that for non-quarterbacks-so in my opinion, the short is Phil This premium is not only acceptable, but also worth it.

But for the Giants, it doesn’t matter who the Bears pick: New York has gone out with a lot of extra value. In the average draft, the expected output of the player selected by the No. 11 pick is about 20% higher than that of the No. 20 player. In exchange for that 20%, the Giants added a few more picks in the first round and then picked some more.

If we assume that the shorts’ draft picks are in the middle of the first round of next year, and we don’t discount any value for the first game of the next year (to be fair, there should be some discount), then Gettleman This transaction roughly doubled the value of its No. 11 pick. That’s just good business.


trading: The Jets won No. 14 and 143; the Vikings won No. 23, 66 and 86
Value winner: Vikings
remaining value: The third round of primaries

After leading these rankings a year ago, the Vikings once again took advantage of their gains in the trade market. In this case, it’s an incredible deal for them, especially considering the final player: Christian Darrisaw, who has the 14th overall pick in Minnesota. Logically, and eventually fell to 23rd place.

For the jet, this looks like a mistake. The overpayment is almost entirely the No. 66 pick itself-if that pick is deleted, then the transaction will be “fair.” I’m not saying that the Jets shouldn’t select an offensive winger to protect Zach Wilson. Instead, I think they should draft more documents.

If we want to put this trade in the context of players, please consider this: If you are a jet, you are willing to choose USC guard Alijah Vera-Tucker or Oklahoma State University Tackle Teven at the same price Jenkins and BYU tackles/guard Brady Christensen? Jet general manager Joe Douglas chose the former, but history shows that the latter is more likely to be rewarded. Moreover, this has not even calculated the possibility of Darrisaw or Vera-Tucker falling to 23rd place.

According to ESPN’s draft day forecast, when choosing the Jets, these players have a 21% and 34% chance of entering 23rd place, respectively.


trading: The Patriots won the 38th lottery.Bangladesh gets the No. 46, 122 and 139 picks
Value winner: Bengali
remaining value: Third round pick

Prior to this deal, the Broncos had only won three rounds of draft picks. The Broncos paid the fourth round picks and received the sixth round picks, which improved five positions. Here, the Patriots surrendered two quarterbacks without getting anything in return, rose to eight, and drafted Alabama’s defensive tackle Christian Bamol.

Bottom line: The Bangladeshi asked Bill Belichick to pay here, increasing the value of their original No. 38 pick by approximately 60%. With the acquisition of the draft pick, Cincinnati chose an offensive tackle Jackson Kaman in the second round, followed by a defensive tackle Taylor Shelvin and an offensive tackle D’Ante Smith.


trading: The Texans won the No. 89 pick; the Panthers won the No. 109 and No. 158 picks and the 2022 fourth-round pick
Value winner: Panther
remaining value: Third round final draft

This ranks fourth in value gained, but some argue that this is the best negotiated deal in the entire draft because Panthers general manager Scott Fitterer cheated Texas here. General Manager Nick Caserio (Nick Caserio). The Panthers doubled the value of their No. 89 pick, which is an incredible deal in a vacuum and compared to other deals around.

The difference between the expectations for the 89th and 109th picks was not big, but Caserio sent two fourth-place players to bridge the gap and chose Nico Collins, a Michigan-wide receiver. This is not a price worth paying, especially for a team with a roster as troublesome as Houston.

Houston’s value in this transaction is more than the seven losses in each transaction before and after this transaction.


trading: The Dolphins won the 42nd draft; the Giants won the 50th draft and the third round of the 2022 draft
Value winner: giant
remaining value: Third round final draft

Trader Dave strikes again!

Gettleman, who had just started to achieve its first day of success in the trading market, decided to make persistent efforts and achieve great success. I don’t think you need an approximation or a trading chart to understand why this is a winner: what’s bigger is the difference in value between the No. 42 and No. 50 picks or the entire third-round pick next year?

For the Giants, this is obviously a gain, especially considering that they can find a declining player in the position of the 50th-ranked pioneer Azeez Ojulari.


Bonus: a worthwhile deal

trading: Brown won the 52nd and 113th picks; the Panthers won the 59th and 89th picks
Value winner: Panther (rarely)
remaining value: Seventh round primaries

I include it here to prove that it is worthwhile to trade at the cost of a non-quarterback. In this case, Brown paid a 5% premium-a small price in a vacuum, much lower than the typical market cost of the transaction-to choose defender Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, and most people thought he would be in the first round. Win.

Even if the league’s emphasis on Owusu-Koramoah is lower than the outsiders initially thought (and probably at this point), considering how big his decline is, this seems like a good choice that could make him worthy of Cleveland in 52nd Pay a 5% tax on the draft pick.


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