Washington—The results of the presidential election are becoming more and more obvious—unless you think we will face greater voting errors than in 2016.
But with four days to go before election day, the outcome of controlling the US Senate seems uncertain.
Yes, as Jessica Taylor of the Cook Political Report wrote, Democrats are the favorites to regain the three to four seats needed in the House of Representatives.
But the realistic possibilities range from Dems only getting two seats (Colorado/Arizona), to they flipping seven or eight seats (Colorado/Arizona/Maine/North Carolina/Iowa) /Montana/Georgia) and have a considerable number of seats any time between next year and mid-term (which will make Dems the majority)
Three other points about the Senate map:
First, North Carolina looks like a turning point for Democrats, while Iowa may be the real 50-50 race that night.
Second, from Arizona and North Carolina to Iowa and Georgia, the way the presidential election is conducted may be decisive.
Third, we may not know who won in Arizona (it took nearly a week in 2018), Maine (voted due to ranking options) and Montana for several days in a row. Remember, in Georgia, if no one clears 50%, both games will reach the January finals.
The good news is that both North Carolina and Iowa should be able to count quickly, so we should have a good idea for the important game on Tuesday night.
Our final list of the final Senate
As for the actual Senate map, this is our final list of the highest seats in the Senate that may eventually change parties-the first is the race most likely to flip. The numbers in parentheses are the rankings since the beginning of this month, and the listed political parties are those currently holding the position.
- Alabama D: After Democratic Senator Doug Jones (Doug Jones) narrowly defeated Roy Moore in 2017, both sides hope to play with former Auburn football coach Republican Tommy Tuberville (Tommy Tuberville) After the overthrow of Jones’ position, the seat returned to the normal Republican position. (1)
- Colorado River: Former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper (John Hickenlooper) has always been ahead of Senator Cory Gardner (Cory Gardner), the latter in this popular state can not be shaken with Trump and Mickey McCon Nair’s connection. (2)
- Arizona R: If the appointed Republican Senator Martha McSally (Martha McSally) wins, it is because she and Trump have violated the Democrats’ expectations that they are a good place for their team. (3)
- Maine R: Senator Susan Collins (Susan Collins) will have to greatly surpass Trump to continue the campaign, and Maine’s preferential voting system may eventually become the Democratic Party pushing the Speaker of the House Sara Gideon to cross the finish line Power. (4)
- North Carolina R: Republicans believe that when Cal Cunningham, the Dem challenger accused of racial discrimination, exchanged romantic text messages with a woman who was not his wife, they had made a major breakthrough. But both public and private opinion polls show that the scandal did not weaken the Democratic leadership as the Republicans hoped. (5)
- Iowa R: This match between current Senator Joni Ernst and challenger Theresa Greenfield may ultimately be the closest match on this list. (6)
- Montana R: The state’s governor, Dem Steve Bullock, was the state’s Democrat recruiting for a coup, and the state assigned 20 points to Trump. Nevertheless, he must surpass Biden by a large margin to remove the incumbent Danes. (8)
- Georgia/Perdue Seat R: Both sides believe that this competition is likely to enter the final on January 5, and neither candidate is expected to exceed 50%. But Biden’s victory in Georgia may give Dem Jon Ossoff a chance to break through this threshold. (7)
- Georgia/Lofleur Seat R: No one is expected to exceed 50%, and the main problem is that Republicans-current Senator Kelly Loeffler or Rep. Doug Collins-make it the top 2 against Dem Raphael Warnock. (10)
- South Carolina R: Dem Jaime Harrison’s amazing fundraiser (he raised more than $100 million this round) kept the competition competitive. But can he win enough Trump voters-or prevent them from voting for Senator Lindsey Graham? (9)
- Michigan (11 ties)
- Kansas River (11 ties)
- Texas R (14)
- Alaska River (13)
- Mississippi River (15)
- Minnesota D (17)
- New Mexico D (16)
- Kentucky (18)
The campaign continues in 2020 Coronavirus
On Monday, we wrote an article about how the coronavirus dominated the final days of this presidential election.
And this Friday-with four days to go-still does.
- The United States recorded more than 90,000 coronavirus cases on Thursday, a record high.
- Clemson star Trevor Lawrence is one of them, he will miss Saturday’s game;
- Approximately 1,000 people died of the coronavirus yesterday, while approximately 45,000 people died in hospitals.
The messages of the two presidential candidates are no different from those conveyed during the Florida campaign yesterday.
Biden is here: “I know this is very hard. In the past few months, so much pain, so much pain, so much loss… Millions of people are unemployed and on the verge of Without seeing the end of the tunnel, Donald Trump gave up.”
Trump is here: “Do you know the bottom line?” You will get better. You will be better,” he said. “If I can be better, then anyone will be better. And I will get better soon. “
To get Trump out of trouble on Tuesday, he will need more voters to support Biden’s message.
Data download: the numbers you need to know today
9,031,493: According to the latest data from NBC News and health officials, the number of confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States. (98,317 more than yesterday morning.)
229,934: So far, the number of deaths caused by the virus in the United States. (1,074 more than yesterday morning.)
142.67 million: According to the researchers of the COVID Tracking Project, so far, coronavirus testing has been carried out in the United States.
46,095: According to the Covid Tracking Project, the number of people currently hospitalized with Covid-19 in the United States.
79,569,964: According to data from NBC and TargetSmart, the number of people who voted early via email or in person.
42%: Philadelphia’s first-class mail takes more than 5 days
Today in the campaign
The action moved to the Midwest: Joe Biden’s stumps in Iowa, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. President Trump attacked Michigan, Wisconsin and Minnesota. Mike Pence is in Arizona. Kamala Harris travels through Texas.
Today’s Tweet: Four days left
Ben Kamisar’s ad viewing
There was a lot of discussion about the Sunshine State this week. Both Trump and Biden visited the crucial battlefield yesterday. A new poll conducted by NBC/Marist found that Biden’s lead is small (the error in the poll) Within range).
Advertising spending in this cycle has reached unprecedented levels, Florida is a good example. According to our friends on Advertising Analytics, during the general election alone, Florida’s television/radio presidential advertising expenditures are expected to exceed $300 million. In contrast, the radio wave spent there in 2016 was only (only?!) US$111 million.
As of Thursday, Biden’s camp had spent only about 100 million U.S. dollars, while Trump’s spending was 58 million U.S. dollars.
Lid: Commercial break
Yesterday, we took a look at the different ways in which the campaign targeted the black voters in the advertisement, please don’t miss it.
ICYMI: What is still happening in the world
The court of appeal ruled that mail ballots received in Minneapolis must be stored separately from other ballots to prevent future invalidity.
Mike Bloomberg continues to spend for Biden, Florida.
In the final days of the election, both movements turned their attention to Hispanic voters.
It sounds like Trump no longer plans to hold election night events at the Trump Hotel in Washington, DC.
This is what Stephen Miller will do in the second Trump administration.
If the president is re-elected, National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien will also fight for the position.
Trump’s allies distributed a 64-page document about Hunter Biden, which proved to be the product of a fake “intelligence company.”