turn off

Joe Biden got a little extra help in Saturday̵

7;s campaign, and it was nothing more than former US President Barack Obama. (October 31)

AP domestic

The number of votes conducted in Texas during the early voting period reached a record level, and candidates, strategists, and political analysts are carefully studying these numbers to find clues about what the state might do on election day.

Approximately 57% of registered voters in the state voted early. Voting one day early broke the previous voting record. Texans with 9.6 million votes voted early, 47% more than the early voters in the 2016 election. Compared with the entire 2016 presidential election (including election day), the number of people voting in Texas at the beginning of this year increased by 735,000.

For decades, Texas’s election turnout has been the lowest in the United States, because most statewide elections are a foregone conclusion. The last time the Democratic Party won a statewide post was in 1996, and the last Democratic presidential candidate to move to Texas was Jimmy Carter (Jimmy Carter) in 1976.

But this year is at least different. At least for Democrats, they are optimistic that the increase in early voting indicates that more Democrats have participated in the polls, which increases the probability of the Democrats winning the votes. In addition to the state’s 38 votes, control of the Texas House of Representatives is also at risk. The Democrats’ goal is to establish several Republican-controlled congressional seats in the suburbs of the state’s largest city, including four seats in the Austin area.

Republicans looked at these numbers and saw a different story: a close election, but this election will return Republican candidates across the state to the presidential palace and send Texas to the Republican column of the presidential campaign.

Recent polls show that President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden are tied in Texas, and the nonpartisan Cook Political Report (leading election forecasting website) moved the state from the “Lean Republican” to “toss”. “

In large cities and suburbs, Republicans failed in 2018, and early voting is more common than ever. In Travis County, more than 500,000 voters voted in early voting and mail voting, and so far, more than 64% of registered voters have voted more than the total number of votes in the 2016 general election.

Although Daron Shaw, a professor of political science at the University of Texas, said that although the number of voters who voted in advance was “unusually large”, it should be noted that there are several factors to consider. The numbers alone do not prove that Texas is in Play a role.

On the one hand, Governor Greg Abbott extended the state’s early voting period by six days to ease the congestion of polling stations during the corona virus pandemic, thereby providing Texans with more voting opportunity. Over the years, each general election has resulted in an ever-increasing proportion of early votes in total votes.

Xiao said: “Considering this, I don’t know how to measure what we are seeing based on historical precedents, because the situation has changed.” “Therefore, I have doubts about those who want to read the meaning of various parties. In In this regard, I am not sure what we are looking at.”

He added: “I think sometimes we are a little dissatisfied with the data.”

Texas is playing a role

So far, different modelling based on data compiled by voters who have voted indicate that Texas is closer to being abandoned than in recent history-the question is how slim the profit margin will be and who favors it.

FiveThirtyEight’s model shows that Trump wins Texas in 66 out of 100 scenarios for export analysts. TargetSmart, the National Democratic organization, said data shows that “Texas is playing a role” and that this year’s voters are at least 2% higher than the Democrats in the 2018 election. That year, Senator Ted Cruz defeated Democratic rival Beto O’Rourke by 2.6 percentage points.

When the Cook Political Report turned the Texas presidential election into a tossing state, it cited opinion polls that showed that the state had a competitive presidential election, but it warned that there is a certain degree of uncertainty around the state. , Partly because of the population growth of the state.

Amy Walter, a writer for Cook’s political report, said: “In this case, we don’t have sufficient experience with Texas.” “Neither does the national polling agency.”

Processing numbers

After the voting begins, the advisor will number the votes based on the number of votes cast by mail and in person during the early voting period and the voter data of past elections. Voters in Texas do not have to register with political parties, which complicates the task of predicting outcomes.

Derek Ryan, a Texas Republican consultant and data analyst, said that he simulated voter data by comparing everyone who has voted so far this year with the list of all registered voters he maintains. , Which includes age, gender, location and in previous elections, everyone voted.

Previous elections can reveal the political leanings of voters, especially if they continue to vote in the primary elections of a party. But voters can change a party’s primary election from one general election to the next general election, so the primary election does not always accurately predict how they will vote in the general election.

Ryan’s latest report released on Thursday showed that at the beginning of this year, nearly 30% of voters had a history of voting in the Republican primary. 23% had previously voted in the Democratic primary.

Ryan said in the latest news from his research firm that these data show that “the voters who recently voted in the Republican primary election have a 350,000 vote advantage over those who recently voted in the democratic primary election.”

Keir Murray, an adviser to the Democratic Party of Texas, said: “Over the years, the modeling and everything used by both parties have become very complex and outstanding-it continues to improve every year.” “However, it is in actual forecasts. There are still limitations.”

This year, one limitation is the high turnout rate of first-time voters or irregular voters, which makes it difficult to predict who they will support. In this case, analysts can turn to demographic data such as age, race, and location to evaluate candidates that the individual might support. Some modeling companies even use consumer data to predict how someone will vote.

Ryan’s latest data shows that so far, 16% of voters have no history of general elections or primary elections, while nearly 29% have no history of primary elections, which means that they voted in the past general elections, but at the beginning No votes were selected. Ryan found that voters who have never voted in the primary will become the largest group of voters.

This year, the advantage of early voting may change everything. Murray said that his feeling is that as the voter turnout increases, Republicans are creating disadvantages on the basis of “exhaustion.”

Ryan said that Democrats may have an advantage in campaign strategy because their base has been voted through and they can focus on independent voters. The Republican Party will “fight on two fronts: contact independents and ensure that the Republican base will finally vote.”

Push for 11 hours

Due to the tightening of opinion polls, the Democrats invested money in Texas in the final days of the election.

Although Biden’s campaign did not invest much in Texas, New York businessman Michael Bloomberg said on Tuesday that he spent about $1 million a day on advertising across the state during the last week of the campaign. Man was briefly his Democratic nomination candidate.

Biden’s running mate Senator Kamala Harris (Kamala Harris) campaigned in Fort Worth, McAllen and Houston on Friday, urging voters to remain enthusiastic before election day. This is her first trip to Texas as a candidate for vice president.

Biden did not visit Texas during the election, and Trump has never stayed in the state since the summer. His absence from the state may also be a sign of Republicans’ confidence.

According to RealClear Politics calculations, a recent Texas poll showed that Trump led by 2.3 points. This gap is within the error range of most surveys. The latest opinion poll released by the University of Massachusetts Lowell on Thursday showed that Trump leads by 1 point, 48% higher than Biden’s 47%.

Murray said: “My current state is very close.” The Democratic adviser added: “I think the current state is chaotic.”


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