Tesla (TSLA) will soon report the first quarter deliveries, and Wall Street is weighing the impact of global chip shortages on electric car manufacturers. Tesla shares fell.
When the report was released, Tesla’s electric car rivals also released data for the first quarter. On Thursday afternoon, Ford (F) Report first-quarter sales, including 6,614 Mustang Mach-E electric crossovers, which are Tesla’s emerging competitors.
Thursday morning, o (NIO) reported sales of 20,060 vehicles, which was higher than its lowered expectations, and Xpeng (XPEV) reported 13,340.
RBC Capital Markets Research analysts expect Tesla to deliver 170,000 vehicles, including 164,800 Model 3/Y models and 5,300 Model S/X models. The total will increase by 92% over the same period last year, but will fall by 6% from the previous quarter. Due to global chip and battery shortages squeezing electric car manufacturers, Royal Bank of Canada’s estimate has fallen from its previous forecast of 182,000 vehicles.
Gene Munster of Loup Venture said that he expects Tesla to even miss those lowered estimates, with estimated deliveries of approximately 160,000 vehicles. But he added that investors should not worry because the reason for the shortage is temporary.
At the same time, Wedbush analyst Daniel Ives said that despite the chip shortage, Tesla may exceed the 170,000 expected deliveries in the first quarter. Ives wrote in a recent report to customers that this success will “help restore the positive momentum in Tesla and the electric vehicle sector.”
Ives said consumer demand in the United States and China remains strong. He said that China’s demand in February and March was particularly strong.
Ives said: “After a difficult start in January, in China, we believe that Tesla is the benefit of share conversion compared to domestic competitors, so the company’s current annual sales are expected to be easy. Break through 800,000 vehicles.”
For the first quarter of 2021, Wedbush increased its Model 3/Y estimate from 132,000 units to 160,000 units. The estimated number of its S/X models increased slightly from 12,500 to 14,000, bringing the total to 174,000.
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Tesla stock action
In today’s stock market, the stock fell 0.9% to close at 661.75 points. The relative strength and weakness line of Tesla stock has also risen again. Nio shares rose 1.7%, Xpeng rose 1.2%, Lee Motors (LI) Added 1%.
Even if Tesla sees a decline in the first quarter, Wall Street is expected to rebound quickly.
Ives raised Tesla’s delivery estimates for the second quarter, setting Model 3/Y deliveries at 166,000, compared with the previous forecast of 144,000. He expects Model S/X deliveries to reach 14,000, compared to about 13,000 before, thus bringing the total unit estimate for the second quarter to 180,000 and 157,000.
Ives wrote: “Now, we model the total annual delivery for fiscal year 21 to 830,000 units, compared to the previous figure of 774,000 units.”
Follow Adelia Cellini Linecker on Twitter @IBD_Adelia.
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