If you were to find yourself among ten people in Washington, the capital of the United States, today, the risk of one person developing Covid-19 would be 18%. The equivalent figure in Paris is 32%.
Based on a dashboard developed by a team of American scientists, the dashboard allows people to use real-time infection data to assess the risk of attending a gathering in their residence.
This tool was developed by the Georgia Institute of Technology team and can provide regional-level Covid-19 transmission rates for the United States and some European countries. It can be viewed at: https://covid19risk.biosci.gatech.edu/
The team behind it published a paper about its work in the journal Natural Human Behavior this week, in which they wrote: “Provide data-driven information to help individuals and decision makers make prudent decisions (For example, increase compliance with masks, gatherings).”
It estimates the likelihood that at least one positive person from Covid-19 will appear in a given event in a given region or county after the user uses the sliding tool to enter the size of the assembly.
Of course, the actual risk of transmission depends on the type of gathering (outdoor or indoor and whether masks are used), but Joshua Weitz, who co-developed the dashboard, said they have avoided this problem.
“Because of these factors, we deliberately focused on one question: What is the risk of one (or more) individuals owning Covid-19 in incidents of different scales?”
Epidemiologists believe that in the United States, about 10 times of every confirmed case goes undetected.
Therefore, the tool takes this into account, but because the test rate in certain areas continues to increase, users can also reduce the dial to a ratio of 5:1, which may give more accurate answers in these places.
Weitz said that the model assumes that a person remains active for 10 days, and he and his colleagues plan to add more countries in the future.
As cases in the United States reached a new peak, 144,000 new cases were recorded on Wednesday, and hospitals were also under pressure.
New York State announced that any business premises with a liquor license, including bars and restaurants, must be closed at 10:00 p.m. starting Friday. The rules will also apply to stadiums.
There are so many cases in El Paso, Texas, that the state has requested that the military medical center be converted into a hospital for non-Covid patients to free up space in the hospital.
ia-ico / mjs