Recent polls conducted by the New York Times/Siena College in Texas, Iowa, and Georgia did not find any serious evidence that the vacancy of the Supreme Court has affected the White House campaign. The polls also did not find much reason to believe that this will change the race in the coming weeks.
On Friday, before the death of Justice Ruth Bud Ginsburg, the investigation was already underway, and neither Joe Biden nor President Trump achieved significant improvement in post-death interviews. Views about the battle of the Supreme Court seem to be split along a familiar partisan line, which is not good for both parties.
The investigation began on Wednesday, two days before Ms. Ginsberg’s death. After controlling the interviewee’s country and party characteristics, neither Mr. Biden nor Mr. Trump performed better in the interviews conducted after their deaths. If anything, Mr. Biden’s situation is better, but this distinction is meaningless.
Beginning on Sunday, voters were asked three questions about the Supreme Court. Although there was not a single question in Iowa, the investigation was mostly completed on Sunday.
The people who received these questions did not represent the overall survey (the survey was ultimately a Republican-oriented group), because many interviews had been conducted. Among the respondents who were asked this question, Mr. Trump led by 6 points, and the total scores of the three surveys were even. Most of the interviewees were in Texas.
These voters stated that they trusted Mr. Trump over Mr. Biden to elect the next Supreme Court judge with a six-point difference, which is the same as his overall lead among all interviewees.
This Republican-leaning group also hopes that the winner of the presidential election will choose the next Supreme Court justice instead of letting Mr. Trump appoint the next justice by 12 points before the election. At the same time, however, the results show that Mr. Trump is unlikely to face serious political costs: with a gap of 14 points, the same voters believe that the Senate should take action against any Trump nominee before the election.
All these results will eventually be subverted by the news in the coming days. But polls have little reason to believe that this game has been overturned.