The latest research found that the climate crisis has swallowed the output of the world’s agricultural system, and its productivity is far lower than that of human beings that have not heated the earth quickly.
Since the 1960s, developments in technology, fertilizer use, and global trade have kept food production in step with the growing global population, although overall inequality has still made millions of people malnourished.
However, the latest research published in “Nature Climate Change”
By 2050, the global population will increase to 9 billion. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations estimates that food production will have to increase by about 70%, annual crop production will increase by nearly 1 billion tons, and meat production will soar. So far, more than 200 million tons per year.
At the same time, global temperature is rising at a rate that scientists warn of being extremely dangerous to human civilization.
Cornell University economist Ariel Ortiz-Bobea, who led the study, said: “The impact has exceeded my expectations.”
“This is a big surprise for me. My concern is that agricultural research and development will take decades to translate into higher productivity. The projected temperature rise is so fast, I don’t know if we will follow This step.”
The study uses models to determine how climate change affects this relationship, thereby measuring productivity through inputs (such as labor, fertilizer, and equipment) and the output of the food they produce.
Although agriculture has generally become more efficient in recent decades, more and more heat waves have threatened agriculture. These heat waves have exhausted farm workers and caused certain crops to wither. Extreme weather events and droughts can also affect farm yields, especially small-scale farms in poor countries.
In 2019, scientists who analyzed the top ten global crops that provide most of our food calories found that climate change is reducing the global production of staple foods such as rice and wheat. Similarly, less affluent countries are also hit hardest by this situation.
Intensive farming to increase production has caused serious environmental damage. This is due to the deforestation of pastures, the loss of valuable topsoil, the pollution of pesticides and the release of large amounts of greenhouse gases, which contribute to global heating. contribution.
Ortiz-Bobea said: “We ultimately want to increase productivity in a changing climate, but this is a bad way to increase inputs such as land and water.” “If we increase productivity, we can have a smaller environmental footprint. To produce more products.”
Columbia University food safety and climate researcher Weston Anderson (Weston Anderson) was not involved in the study. He said that this new study provides new insights into the extent of people’s impact on agriculture.
He said: “Central America and the Sahel are the areas where agricultural productivity has fallen the most, including some of the most food-insecure countries in the world. This is a worrying issue.”
“This means that people who are already food-insecure are bearing the heaviest burden of climate change and emphasize the importance of making every effort to immediately improve agricultural production in these vulnerable areas.”