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The strict abortion laws of Alabama and several other states face legal disputes in court. This is against Roe v. Wade̵

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USA Today

This story was published in collaboration with The 19th, a non-profit, nonpartisan newsroom that covered gender, politics, and policy.

Four years ago, Jennifer Abel (Jennifer Abel) voted for Hillary Clinton (Hillary Clinton), breaking a lifetime record, this was the first time she voted for a Democrat.

“Donald Trump just didn’t reflect any of my value system, I just couldn’t let myself vote for him.” said Abel, a six-year-old mother who lives in southern Virginia.

For many years, Abel’s abortion stance has guided her voting record. She said that she considers herself “helping others”. But especially now, this identity has a new meaning. She said that between the president’s position on immigration, his rhetoric about race, and his recent attitude to the coronavirus, she believes that the Republican Party has not met her definition of the importance of life after birth.

Therefore, even though Abel is with her husband and 18-year-old son, he is still voting for Democratic candidate Joe Biden, despite his efforts to maintain abortion opportunities. She encouraged other women she knew to do the same.

“If you refuse to generalize on the ways in which most people’s lives can be protected, how can you call yourself a pro-life president?” she said. “This epidemic does cause many people to fall into that kind of false camp hypocrisy.”

Abel is the kind of voter Trump won the count, and he has made a clear appeal during his recent surge: a woman in a white suburb, a conservative, a Christian who opposes abortion.

White women and white Christian voters played a key role in Trump’s 2016 victory. But opinion polls and focus groups clearly show that the alliance is forming a rift. White women are increasingly abandoning Trump. Compared to four years ago, white Catholics and white mainline Protestants (both groups that supported Trump in 2016) are less likely to support the president.

Pandemic: Trump’s handling of the coronavirus has cost him Christian support

Abortion has taken a back seat in other health care issues. According to a recent poll conducted by the Public Religious Research Institute (PRRI), this issue is not a priority for most voters, including white Catholics and white Protestants, who are more concerned about COVID-19 and healthcare. A separate opinion poll shows that voters generally agree with Biden on both issues.

Still, white women who are anti-abortion may still strike for Trump this year-according to PRRI, only 16% plan to vote for Biden. PRRI research director Natalie Jackson said that this sounds small, but it is enough to work, especially when the president’s support has weakened.

Jackson said: “He lost so many different groups, which is very important.” “There is no big group against Trump. This is a different group. It’s white women, it’s older Americans.”

Republican strategist Sarah Longwell (Sarah Longwell), who often holds focus groups with pending women in swing states, said that anti-abortion voters cited many reasons why they did not support the president this year.

Some women cited Trump’s criticism of protesters who protested against police violence and racial injustice this summer. Others pointed to the president’s immigration policies, including the notorious position of separating families on the southern border, which caused national headlines in 2018 and became news again.

The most important is the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 220,000 Americans and affected women in economic and mental health.

Longwell said: “In the focus group, I heard many people say…’I will never vote for the Democratic Party because I am a supporter of life.’ “But I also heard from thinking that I was pro-life. Women have equal time. They have voted for the Republican Party because they are in favor of life. Do they vote for Joe Biden or Joe Biden this time? Their race is the same as Donald Trump’s. Behavior and disagreement have led them to rethink the framework that was established around the meaning of “birth”. “

For Jody Delikat, a 49-year-old evangelical Christian voter in Madison, Wisconsin, the past four years have forced her to accept this calculation. In 2016, she voted for the former Ohio Governor John Kasich (John Kasich), who failed to run for president. This year, even if she opposes abortion, she plans to vote for Biden.

She said: “Having a lot of close contact with the people I love, this has taught me the difference between my own and my own.” “It is not life to separate children and keep them in a cage. Refusing to wear a mask is not life. I I really think that this position is hypocritical-you cannot say that you only respect the life of your unborn child and ignore other lives.”

Trump has been vigorously emphasizing abortion in the months before the election. The Republican National Convention in August was flooded with anti-abortion speakers. Recently, Trump nominated Amy Connie Barrett. Coney Barrett) went to the Supreme Court, and this move made abortion admitters worried that it would overturn or weaken the Roe v. Wade case. However, in the last presidential debate on Thursday, the topic of Barrett and abortion was generally missing.

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Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett (Amy Coney Barrett) declined to say whether he believes Roe v. Wade should be dropped. Barrett avoided the challenge of this landmark case by Senator Dianne Feinstein, the top Democrat on the Senate Judiciary Committee. (October 13)

AP domestic

It is believed that the president’s emphasis on abortion during the 2016 campaign, including a promise to appoint a Supreme Court justice who could overthrow Rowe v. Wade, played a role in his victory. But the actual situation is more complicated, which can help explain why recreating the formula will bring challenges.

Longwell pointed out that, on the one hand, not all Trump female supporters are actually opposed to abortion rights. Therefore, emphasizing this issue now cannot win their support. Women interviewed in the 19th century all expressed their opposition to abortion and had included abortion in their voting methods in the past. Their attitudes ranged from suspicion to total disapproval of Roe v. Wade’s claim was overturned.

According to PRRI, the majority of white women (approximately 59%) said that in most or all cases, abortion should remain legal. Opinion polls conducted before and after Barrett’s nomination showed that voters did not differ in their ratings of abortion when shaping their votes.

At most, only one-third of ordinary voters include single abortion voters, and they say they will only support candidates who hold the same position on this issue. Jackson pointed out that when you control for other demographic factors, the number will drop dramatically-all patterns suggest that abortion is not driving a large enough voting group.

Political scientist Ryan Burger, a political scientist and religious scientist at Eastern Illinois University, said that the view on abortion does not seem to be that important in determining support for the president. This is also true in 2016.

According to his analysis, white evangelical voters who support abortion rights but oppose immigration are more likely to support the president than those who oppose abortion but support immigration.

He said that Republican women are more likely to disapprove of Trump’s immigration record, and Bourg believes that Bush believes that this year may prompt more people to vote for Biden. According to his research, 53% of Republican women who strongly support Trump support family separation, while only 62% of comparable men. Among those who approve of Trump, 23.4% of Republican women support the policy, compared with 35.5% of Republican men.

He said: “Women are more reluctant to live apart.” “That hurts them far more than abortion.”

At the same time, Trump has spent very little campaign time talking about the issue that seems to affect women anti-abortion most: COVID-19.

Longwell said: “This is part of the overall conversation about why he is generally so bad for women.” “He is not talking about things that are important to these women. If there is one thing that is important to them, it is that their lives are being Destroyed by the coronavirus.”

For Lacine Aday of Texas, the coronavirus was a key factor in why she chose Biden.

“I think Donald Trump could have done a lot of things to save lives. I do think his handling is very bloody,” said Adi, a 43-year-old independent voter from Huaqiu.

Aday is active in her church and opposes abortion, although she does not think criminalizing it is an effective method. Her main problems include solving epidemics and better gun control, especially since she has three school-age children. She said that before Trump, she will be identified as an evangelical Christian. But now, she finds that the connection between this term and the president is difficult to swallow. She was not sure what to call herself.

After Trump’s 2016 election, Aday, one of the few Christian women she knew who voted for Clinton, created a private Facebook group for people like her. It started with about 10 women in the surrounding communities, white Christians, who did not support the president.

But since then, its membership has surged. Among the 225 women in the group, Aday estimates that half of them are Republicans for life and cannot allow themselves to vote for Trump this year. She said that because the organization is a private organization, they are happy to talk about changes in their views-although no one will publicly express their political changes.

One day, Texas will not go to Biden this year. But in the long run, she foresaw a trend that is hard to ignore.

“There will be more [Democratic] she says. “It’s crawling in that direction.”

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