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Home / Business / RethinkX predicts that huge and cheap solar, wind and batteries will change society

RethinkX predicts that huge and cheap solar, wind and batteries will change society


Published on October 28, 2020|
Zachary Shahan

October 28, 2020 by Zachary Shahan

In the past ten years, the main theme of the energy industry has been the sharp decline in solar, wind and battery prices. This has led to tremendous changes in the global energy industry. However, this is a bit like the arrival of low-cost cellular flip phones. Yes, their arrival has changed the communication, as many people think it is impossible, but this is only a small beginning of the change. Then came the smartphone, led by the first Apple iPhone, you can̵

7;t even say that the communication technology in 2020 is in the same field as the flip phones of the early 2000s.

So yes, as solar energy has become cheaper and cheaper, the energy sector-from power generation to energy to power cars-has changed a lot. But we haven’t seen it yet.

A kind New report The content written by RethinkX explores this topic further. This is a summary: “By 2030, a power system composed entirely of solar, wind and battery (SWB) can provide the cheapest electricity, and the total energy will be 2 to 3 times that of the current grid in the continental United States, and most of the global The densely populated areas led to the bankruptcy of coal, natural gas, and nuclear power companies and drastically cut consumer costs.”

However, such cheap clean energy does not only mean lower costs. In a way, it means destruction. Why is it destructive, not just cheap? Because when you basically fall into “too cheap for electricity meters”, the business model will change, new business potential will appear, and the market will change.

“A 100% SWB system will have a much larger power generation than the power generation currently used on most days, and it will generate a lot of electricity at a marginal cost close to zero. The report author shows,Clean energy superpower“It will enable new business models and industries, create trillions of dollars in new value, and help repatriate energy-intensive manufacturing.”

Power surplus (about $0) means that businesses or entire industries that rely on large amounts of electricity will be attracted to the area, just as Winnie the Pooh is attracted to honey. With the development of conditions in many regions, the cost of electricity has become a discussion point for setting up factories or other business locations, which may also change the map.

Of course, electric cars, electric buses, electric trucks, hydrogen storage facilities, and possibly even electric planes and manipulators may absorb too much electricity generated by solar and wind energy at a price of $0.01/kWh or $0.00001/kWh. Even negative prices.

Tony Seba, co-founder of RethinkX and author of the report, pointed out: “It will not only solve some of the toughest challenges in society, but it will also usher in hundreds of new business models and create industries that can collectively change the global economy. “When the system generates a lot of electricity at a marginal cost close to zero, the potential for creating new value is unlimited. This is not a problem of overcapacity. This is a problem. Super power solution. “

But it is true-is it possible to exceed 100% renewable energy? I am glad you asked. As I wrote before writing this article a few weeks ago, in just an hour, South Australia was generating 100% or more of its electricity from solar power alone. That’s only solar energy. It’s only 2020.

The report’s co-author, Dr. Adam Dorr, said: “People mistakenly think that too much solar and wind energy is a problem.” “It was looking at the equation through the lens of the old fossil fuel system without realizing the basic principles of destruction. Sun and wind are free, and it is unreasonable to reduce the almost priceless clean energy we generate with them. As with other technological disruptions, asking how existing systems adapt to SWB is a mistake. The grid as we know it will evolve rapidly Become a larger, more flexible, diverse and powerful system, just like the landline telephone network has evolved into the Internet. On the contrary, we must ask: “How can the SWB-based new energy system be minimized at all levels of society and economy? Cost and maximize benefits? “”

Ah, I now know that they also brought the metaphor of the phone into the story. cool.

For this report, RethinkX went deep into the power systems of California, Texas and New England. For detailed information about these states, please check the report.

The RethinkX team wrote: “This report is the first in a series of studies aimed at maximizing the extraordinary benefits of the new energy system. These decisions need to be reviewed now.” So stay tuned.

The important thing is that the author points out that when we work on this new energy system, it is not only about technology. Anyone working in this industry must have the right mindset.

James Arbib, the co-founder of RethinkX, said: “Whether SWB will have energy interruption is no longer a problem, but when and where the problem occurs.” “Schedule is very important, social, economic, political and environmental. The benefits cannot be higher. The actual results depend on the choices made today, and those who lead rather than follow or resist will benefit the most.”

Naturally, RethinkX is not the first organization to consider over-producing electricity from fundamentally free renewable energy. Indeed, 8 years ago, researchers at the University of Delaware (UD) and Delaware Institute of Technology (DTCC) put forward a “radical” idea to deal with the intermittency of wind and solar energy, while also acknowledging wind and solar energy The cost of electricity continues to fall: Why not only overbuild wind and solar power plants in the future?

However, as we enter that era, in addition to the super-cheap solar and wind power “prematurely” shutting down the power plant to provide more expensive fuel supplies (such as coal, nuclear power, and even natural gas power plants), the problem lies in the power plant’s What is the operating speed and type? We can, should and will stimulate growth.

Last month, I went back to the 2012 study and found that it is as important as ever, but not as important.

Related stories:

  1. The price of solar photovoltaic panels increased by 12 times in 2010, and by 459 times in 1977
  2. 100% WWS Part 1: Jacobson’s new research replaces 99.7% of fossil energy with substantial savings
  3. 100% wind, hydro and solar energy can and should be the target, with lower cost
  4. Transition the world to 100% renewable energy
  5. Transition to the world to 100% renewable energy-part 2
  6. The cost of solar and wind energy is so low that it is cheaper than *existing* coal and nuclear energy — Lazard LCOE report
  7. 100% renewable energy, early Tesla-#CleantechTalk with Mark Z. Jacobson
  8. Surprise for the City of Houston: 100% Renewable Electricity-Save $65 million in 7 years

Image courtesy of RethinkX

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label: Adam Dorr, James Arbib, RethinkX, Tony Seba, American Clean Energy, American Renewable Energy, American Solar, American Wind Energy

About the author

Zachary Shahan is trying his best to help society be one self for one word at a time.He spends most of his time here Clean technology As its director, editor-in-chief and chief executive officer. Zach is recognized as an expert in electric vehicles, solar and energy storage. He introduced clean technology at conferences in India, UAE, Ukraine, Poland, Germany, the Netherlands, the United States, Canada and Curaçao. Zach made a long-term investment in NIO [NIO], Tesla [TSLA]And Xpeng [XPEV]. But he does not provide (explicit or implied) any form of investment advice.

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