On Tuesday, November 10, 2020, satellite imagery provided by NOAA showed that tropical storm Eta on the right bank of the Gulf of Mexico in the eastern United States at 1
A group of scientists from Europe presented a new study this week, claiming that the Gulf Stream is now more vulnerable than at any time in the past 1,000 years. The Gulf Stream is an Atlantic ocean current that plays a very hidden role in shaping the weather patterns in the United States. In the past 500 years, a lot of research and learning on the influence of current has been done, especially because of the expertise of Benjamin Franklin, one of the founding fathers of the United States.
But according to a recent study published by Irish, British and German scientists, the changes in the circulation of the Gulf Stream in recent decades have been weaker than at any time in the last millennium. The researchers say that the weakening of the Gulf Stream, commonly referred to as the Atlantic Meridian Overturning Circulation (AMOC), can be largely attributed to a catalyst: human-induced climate change.
The Gulf Stream causes large amounts of water to flow across the Atlantic Ocean. According to one of the authors of the study, Stefan Rahmstorf (Stefan Rahmstorf), it can move nearly 20 million cubic meters of water per second, like a giant conveyor belt.
How strong is that? He told Potsdam Academy: “Almost a hundred times the traffic of Amazon.”
Since 2016, the position of the Gulf Stream in the global real-time ocean forecasting system model (RTOFS). (Picture from NOAA)
The main function of the Gulf Stream is to redistribute heat on the earth through ocean currents. The ocean circulation system plays a vital role in many weather patterns around the world (especially the east coast of the United States).
Rahmstorf said his team’s research was groundbreaking because it was able to combine previous research results to piece together a 1600 AMOC evolution map.
He said: “The results of the study show that it remained relatively stable until the late 19th century.” “With the end of the Little Ice Age, around 1850, ocean currents began to decline, and since the middle of the 20th century, there has been a second change. Significant decline.”
The original map of the Gulf Stream drawn by Timothy Folger and Benjamin Franklin in 1768. (Picture from the Library of Congress)
So, what does the declining ocean current mean? AccuWeather senior meteorologist Bob Smerbeck (Bob Smerbeck) said that if the water level rises this year, it may cause sea levels to rise. But, Smerbeck added, it’s tricky to know how warm the water will become.
Previously, studies have shown that rising water temperatures and rising sea levels will lead to more extreme weather events, such as stronger tropical storms, a higher probability of extreme heat waves or reduced summer rainfall.
However, other researchers have also come up with comparative data, showing that the Gulf Stream has not actually declined in the past 30 years. Researchers in the United Kingdom and Ireland used different data modeling systems to aggregate data from climate models. They stated in a study released earlier this month that “the overall AMOC has not declined.”
The authors wrote in their study: “Our results show that adequate capture of changes in deep circulation is essential to discover any AMOC decline associated with anthropogenic climate change,” the research was published by Rahmstorf’s team on the subject Written a few days before the study.
Smerbeck, who has worked in meteorology at AccuWeather for nearly 25 years, urges caution when explaining new research propositions.
“Article 1 discusses a possible response [the first study mentioned above] The slowdown of AMOC may cause the warming of the east coast waters because of the thermal expansion of sea water, which caused sea level to rise. “This seems reasonable.” However, he added that the amount of sea water rise will depend on the warmth that the sea can get, and he is not ready to speculate on this yet.
This undated engraving shows the scene when the “Declaration of Independence” was passed by the Continental Congress in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on July 4, 1776. The document was drafted by Thomas Jefferson, Benjamin Franklin, John Adams, Philip Livingston and Roger Sherman and announced the separation of 13 British colonies in North America from the United Kingdom. Fifty-six members of Congress officially signed the agreement on August 2. (AP Photo)
How was the Gulf Stream as we know it discovered today? Well, this discovery was driven by the need to improve the efficiency of mail services and was inspired by the empiricism of whalers.
According to Smithsonian Magazine, Benjamin Franklin served as deputy postmaster in London in 1768, overseeing the delivery of mail to and from the American colonies. His cousin Timothy Folger (Timothy Folger) also served as the captain of the merchant ship.
One day, Franklin asked Fogg why his merchant ship reached the colony so much faster than Franklin’s cruise ship returned to England. Folger explained to his cousin that the merchant captain followed the recommendations of the whalers, who followed the “warm, powerful tide” to track and kill the whales.
According to writer Laura Bliss, although Franklin said that the post captains were too proud to follow the advice of “simple American fishermen,” they wereted precious time by sailing against the tide.
Therefore, Folger outlines the approximate location of the current for Franklin and calls it the “Gulph Stream”. However, Franklin’s postman refused to follow the instructions.
A map of the Gulf Stream, published in the Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society in 1786. (The picture comes from the Library of Congress, Geography and Map Division)
But Smithsonian said that when Franklin transferred his allegiance to the rapidly rising United States during the Revolutionary War, he mapped out a more precise AMOC route and handed it over to his French allies, providing them with information in the Battle of European Seamen. Key advantage. The combination of Folger’s whaling knowledge and Franklin’s mapping will become critical to understanding the importance of the present, even if they initially just wanted to figure out how to send mail faster.
Although the understanding of AMOC may be only a few hundred years old, Smerbeck said that there are many different ways to date the current. He said that direct measurements with deep-sea instruments can only be traced back to 2004, but other methods can help solve this problem, such as the analysis of corals and historical data in ship logs.
Smerbeck explained: “Tree rings can tell you how humid or drier the terrestrial climate nearby was in the past, which may be related to sea surface temperature.” He said: “Ice cores can almost tell the same thing, and how cold or how cold the past was. It’s cold.” “Marine sediments can show whether there is a period of high runoff in precipitation near the land, which may be related to the high or low sea surface temperature in the past.” The researchers used all these clues to provide people with an understanding of the Gulf Stream. Can be traced back a thousand years ago.
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