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Research finds that Trump rally could lead to approximately 700 Covid-19 deaths



A study conducted by four Stanford University economic researchers determined that there were 18 Trump campaigns, most of which took place last summer, and “eventually led to an increase of more than 30,000 confirmed COVID-19 cases”, “may result in 700 Many deaths.”

The study surveyed 18 counties that hosted Trump rallies in places such as Tulsa, Oklahoma; Phoenix, Arizona; and Winston, North Carolina, which took place from June 20 to September 22. Lehm meeting. Then, the Covid-19 infection rate after the rally in the host county was compared with comparable counties in the host country that did not hold it. The number of people attending individual gatherings varies, but Trump often attracts thousands of supporters to these events.

The author wrote: “For the vast majority of county matching procedures we use, our estimate of the average treatment effect of the eighteen rallies shows that they have increased subsequent confirmed COVID-1

9 cases by 250 per 100,000 residents.” Researchers-B. Douglas Bernheim, professor of economics at Stanford University, and Stanford University graduate students Nina Buchmann, Zach Freitas-Groff, and Sebastián Otero-extrapolated this number to the entire sample and concluded that the rally led to thousands of New infections, and hundreds of people may die.

As the author admits, trying to determine exactly how many infections the Trump rally (or any other potential super-spreading incident) caused is not easy. Whether the rally is held indoors or outdoors, whether a large number of infected people participate, whether the participants are wearing masks, and the “distribution of infected people among the participants of the rally”, etc., may cause the infection rate to vary greatly.

Similarly, although the authors estimate that Trump’s summer rally will cause more than 700 deaths, they point out that these deaths are “not necessarily among participants”. For example, a person in a gathering may be infected with a mild case, but a person in the same gathering may transmit the virus to his wife, who transmits it to a colleague, who transmits it to his sister, who died of Covid-19.

Nonetheless, the average difference between the number of infections in the counties hosting the Trump rally and the infection rates in other similar counties suggests that at least some of the Trump campaigns were super-spread incidents that could have caused hundreds of deaths.

Earlier this month, Dr. Anthony Fucci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, warned that as the number of Covid-19 infections surged, Trump would hold a large-scale political rally to “seeking trouble.” But Fauci’s warnings did not seem to deter the president, who reportedly planned to hold 14 rallies during the last three days of the 2020 campaign.


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