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Republicans are increasingly worried about losing control of the Senate



Senator Joni Ernst of Iowa won the Senate seat six years ago and won the title of the Republican Party, promising to go to Washington and “scream”, just like she was mowing on her family farm. Like pigs.

If anyone screams this year, it’s Ernst and other Senate Republicans in an unusually large number of states that have kept pace with the Democratic challenge.

In places like Iowa, Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, and Maine, Republicans stayed, hoping that President Trump would ignore the polls and win and go with them. Otherwise, they will need to attract enough rare voters to split their votes to support Democratic President Biden as president and Senate Republican.

Many political forecasters and opinion polls show that, in the face of these difficulties, the Republican Party may lose control of the Senate next year. In order to occupy a majority of seats, Democrats must get three seats, and if Trump is re-elected, they must get four seats.

Considering the degree of division of the Senate, there may be a split of 50-50. If Biden wins, Democrats can rely on Vice President Kamala Harris (Kamala Harris) to break any ties in the Senate.

But a tie in the Senate will almost certainly exacerbate the deadlock, because the Democrats cannot afford even a vote in the caucus.

In the past few years of presidential elections, the fate of the Senate campaign has increasingly depended on the results of the presidential campaign. In 201

6, they fell into complete opposition: where Trump won, so did the Republican candidates; so did Hillary Clinton and the Democrats. By 2020, opinion polls indicate that this trend may continue.

Kevin Madden, a longtime Republican adviser to the Senate, said that the Senate Republicans “may beat Trump in some places, but given the state of opinion polls, the matching rate is likely to cause the Republicans to lose the Senate.” Congressional candidates .

In this polarized environment, Senate Republicans now have no upside to try to distance themselves from Trump. They will risk losing the support of Trump’s stubborn foundation to eradicate the few remaining undecided independents. Those independents may be fickle and unreliable voters, especially when compared to Trump’s loyalists.

Senator John Thun (RS.D.), the second Republican in the Senate, said: “Republicans participating in the contest realize that their destiny depends largely on the president’s performance.” “This does not mean that there is no him. They can’t win, but it certainly means that if he performs well, their chances of winning will increase.”

Trump does not seem to see this connection.

“I might help some people. I don’t think I hurt anyone. But I don’t think they are tied together. I have never done it.” Trump said recently in Arizona, Senator Martha Mack Sally is one of the most vulnerable Republicans. “In this case, I can do very well, we can have a senator candidate, and the performance is incredible.”

A Republican who worked in the Republican Senate campaign said that in Arizona and North Carolina, current Republicans in the Senate are behind Trump in polls, which means they will need the president to win by a few points. In order to get a boost from his self-made home.

It is widely expected that the Democrats will lose their seats in Alabama, but will rise in Colorado. They tend to occupy smaller GOP seats in Arizona and Maine. Iowa and North Carolina are toss. Republican strongholds are out of reach for Democrats, such as South Carolina, Montana, Kansas, and Texas. Opinion polls show that they are moving away from the Republican Party, but now party officials feel that they have been removed. Withdrawn. If no candidate gets 50% of the vote next week, the two Republican seats in Georgia may enter the finals.

In order for Republicans to retain their way in the Senate, they may have to defeat Democratic seats in Michigan and Minnesota. Although opinion polls in these two states have been tightened, the Democrats still remain ahead of the margin of error. Republican officials say that the best hope for Republicans may be 51-49 in the Senate.

A toss in Iowa made that game one of the most expensive games in the country. Strategists say that although Ernst won by more than 8 percentage points in 2014, and Trump defeated Clinton by more than 9 points just two years later, Trump’s drag made him into trouble.

“Of course, Trump’s election in Iowa is closer than in 2016,” said a Republican official who participated in the campaign. “At this stage, Iowa’s partisanship has shrunk. This may be true. It is more tense than the Republican Party’s turmoil in ’14.”

The farm girl, mother, and combat veteran won her seat in 2014 with a conservative conservatism that attracted the establishment of the Republican Party and the Tea Party conservatives that became the leader of the party four years ago. In her first year in the Senate, she received a high-profile appointment, asking the Republican Party to respond to President Obama’s State of the Union address, and quickly became a member of the Republican Party’s leadership.

In the hope of getting a second term, Ernst’s camp is touting her work on ethanol-important for farmers in Iowa-and her work on veterans issues and Trump’s trade agreement USMCA.

Republican strategists participated in the contest but asked not to be named and ignored their responsibilities. They said Democrats poured into the state to upset Ernst’s record-they came to power in early 2020-and boost her Democratic opponent Teresa Greenfield spoke anonymously.

The campaign ad stated that Ernst went to Washington, lost his roots in Iowa, and never screamed at them. The news resonated with some voters.

Toni Sumpter is a 60-year-old retired pharmacist who lives in the suburbs of Des Moines. She said she has no “major complaints” against Ernst, but Greenfield’s interest in strengthening social security and maintaining Obamacare has won her support. She is a traditional but not exclusive Democratic voter. She has voted for Biden and Greenfield. She believes there is no value in splitting votes.

“For me, it is very important for the Senate to be controlled by Democrats. This is the only way to accomplish anything,” she said.

As the wealth of Republicans has declined among suburban women in Iowa and other parts of the country, their wealth has increased in rural areas. In fact, Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds made a profit on the Ernst margin in most of the state’s rural areas in 2018, which shows that Ernst can make up for the vastness of Iowa. Losses in the suburbs of rural areas.

Greenfield’s path lies in the massive turnout in the city and suburbs, as well as voters who persuaded support for Obama but turned to Trump to return to the Democratic Party. Ernst’s camp says Greenfield will be attracted by the loose agenda of Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (DN.Y.), such as the Green New Deal and universal health insurance. Greenfield said she opposed those policies.

After the market closed on November 3, some Republicans quietly accepted the argument that Biden swept through the polls and Republicans should insist on the Senate to inspect the Democrats and the White House.

The National Republican Senate Committee, which promotes Republican senator candidates, ran an ad in Iowa, questioning this possibility.

“If they had all the power, what would happen?” The advertisement said pictures of spokesperson Nancy Pelosi (D-San Francisco), Schumer and Biden. “Stop the nightmare of liberals.”

There are similar advertisements in Montana. In Maine, Senator Susan Collins touted her importance to the country, “No matter who you vote for the president.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) argued on Friday that the Republican-led Senate would be a better inspection of the Biden administration. He said in Hugh Hewitt’s performance: “The solution to this problem is 51 Republican senators.”

The Washington Times staff writer Noah Bierman (Noah Bierman) contributed to this report.




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