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Home / US / Positive Trump poll sparks debate in poll panel

Positive Trump poll sparks debate in poll panel



Most opinion polls show that the Democratic candidate Joe BidenAfter Joe Biden Harris (Joe BidenHarris) traveled in Texas on Friday, opinion polls showed a relationship between Trumps. The Florida Heat in Biden, Florida sent more than a dozen Trump rally participants to Hospital Harris Hospital, and there are more targets of online false alarms than pennies: report more A solid and stable lead President TrumpDonald John Trump’s Biden campaign attacked Facebook after thousands of ads were blocked by the platform’s pre-election blackout.Mnuchin said he understood the letter Pelosi had sent him, saying that stimulus news “Harris” went to Texas on Friday, after polls showed that Trump and Biden (Biden) There is a connection When tens of millions of people have voted and there is little time to change the course of the game.

However, a few opposition pollsters believe that Trump’s support is insufficient, and election analysts may be in an embarrassing situation again on election day.

The battle has spread to social media, and some well-known political analysts refuted the polls that showed Trump is leading Biden on social media.

The Trafalgar Group was the only nonpartisan who discovered Trump’s leadership in Michigan and Pennsylvania on Election Day in 2016, and showed Trump Trump’s lead in the two states. Will be the key to Trump’s victory in the electoral college. Almost all other pollsters show that Biden has a leading lead.

Robert Cahaly of Trafalgar said that Trump’s hidden vote was not accounted for in the polls, which showed Biden was on the taxiing road to the White House.

“there are more [shy Trump voters] Kahali said it was more intense than the last time it was coming, and there was not even a competition. He added that the voting industry is likely to experience catastrophic failure in 2020.

FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver and Cook political report editor Dave Wasserman is deeply skeptical of Cahaly’s vote.

Both got stuck in the cross-tabulation of the Trafalgar polls and pointed out the problematic breakdown because there was evidence that Trafalgar didn’t know what he was doing. For example, the crosstab in the Michigan polls is no longer displayed online, and seems to show that Trump leads Biden by eight points among young voters (the stronghold of the Democratic Party).

“[Trafalgar] They did not disclose their “proprietary digital methods”, so I can’t really assess what they are doing. “Republican pollster Jon McHenry of North Star Public Opinion Research Company said. “From today, a year later, their importance is important, and we will remember whether they are right or wrong. “

FiveThirtyEight’s model gave Trump about a 30% chance of winning on 2016 Election Day, and gave Trump about an 11% chance of winning-roughly equivalent to getting internal straight hair in poker.

Those who think most opinion polls show that Biden is ahead of Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham Clinton Harris (Harriary Diane Rodham Clinton) in a poll on Friday showed that the relationship between Trump and Biden Harris has become more frequent than Pence After the goal of online misinformation, Harris will head to Texas: “Hill’s Campaign Report”: What are the latest opinion polls’ comments on the presidential election | The Supreme Court vetoed Republicans’ attempts to prevent NC mail voting from expanding MORE Two factors were noted at this point in 2016. They say Trump has performed poorly in the major leagues that drove him to win in 2016, sometimes poorly. Compared with Clinton, Biden is still more popular.

McHenry said he believed that there were not many “shy” Trump supporters who would lie about their intentions.

On the contrary, people worry about the “skewed response rate pattern”, which means that when pollsters call, Trump voters are unlikely to participate in the survey or answer the phone.

McHenry still pointed out that this will not bring automatic benefits to Trump. For example, in Pennsylvania, he found that Democrats were less likely to answer the phone than their sign-up proposal.

He said: “I can’t say for certain that there is no response to the prejudice, but I am skeptical about it, which is certainly not enough to explain the national deficits we are seeing.

Having said that, Trafalgar is not the only contrarian voice in the polls. Several other pollsters also contended with it, believing that other pollsters lack Trump pro-voters.

Jim Lee of Susquehanna Polling and Research is another supporter of the “submerged” Trump voter theory.

A recent investigation by Susquehanna in Wisconsin found that Trump and Biden were tied together, the only one since the Trafalgar Group found that Trump was 1 point ahead in August. Not once did not show Biden’s lead in Bad State. In Florida, Susquehanna showed Trump a 4-point lead, and the “53” average gave Biden a 2-point advantage.

Lee said on WFMZ’s Business Matters this week: “There are a lot of voters who don’t want to admit that they are voting for someone called a racist, and the overwhelming Trump factor is very real.” “We can. I have captured it, and others have not been disappointed yet, I am really disappointed.”

The Dornsife Center at the University of Southern California is publishing the results of its regular national polls, but it is also asking similar “experimental” questions, asking people who they think their social connections are voting for, and their home country. .

In 2016, the University of Southern California, Dornsife (USC-Dornsife) made headlines and was one of the few polls that showed Trump is leading the country. Hillary Clinton eventually won the national vote, and the University of Southern California later adjusted its methodology, saying it over-sampled rural voters in the last election.

The USC-Dornsife poll showed that Biden leads the country by 11 points.

However, when voters were asked about their social circles, the racial crunch was 5 points; when they were asked who they expected other people in their state to vote for, the racial crunch was 1 point. This survey shows that Trump will once again win the Electoral College in 2020.

USC-Dornsife pointed out that in the five recent elections, including the 2016 U.S. presidential election and the 2018 House of Representatives battle, the social circle issue is a better indicator than the “own intention” issue.

However, Mirta Galesic of the Santa Fe Institute, researchers studied one of USC’s increased voting issues, and pointed out that the survey’s national research results indicate that Trump will win the Electoral College and should be viewed with suspicion.

The USC-Dornsife poll of 5,000 national participants has a very small sample in some battlefield states and may not be as accurate as the public state poll.

“We expect that using such a small sample, social circle problems will produce more accurate state-level predictions than their own intention problems, because social circle problems may provide more information and eliminate certain biased samples in small countries,” added Lisic said. “But this does not mean that predictions based on social circle issues will be more accurate than large state polls.”

In addition, Galesic said that due to the coronavirus pandemic, the social terrain is extremely turbulent, which makes it more difficult to collect reliable data about voters’ social circles, which have declined sharply in recent months.

Garisic said that the ghost of 2016 still made many voters think they knew that their friends and family would vote in 2020, even if the situation changed dramatically.

Galesic said: “This has stirred up Democrats’ pessimism about Biden’s chances, and Republicans’ optimism about Trump’s chances.” “It also prompted people to believe that some Trump voters did not agree. Not included in the polls. The combination of these beliefs may make the expectations of the social circle biased towards a smaller gap between the two candidates.”




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