Washington—According to a national poll conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, the vast majority of voters believe that the winner of the presidential election should make up for the death of Justice Ruth Bud Ginsburg. Seats in the Supreme Court. The politically dangerous President Trump and Senate Republicans tried to rush to complete the appointment before the end of the campaign to show respect.
In the week before Trump nominated Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the High Court on Saturday, a survey of potential voters was conducted, and 56% of them said that they would prefer the election as a response to the vacancy. Referendum. Only 41
Even more striking is that Mr. Trump and the endangered Senate Republicans must retract to close the gap in the polls, and they even oppose rash choices: 62% of women, 63% of independents, and 60% of college-educated individuals. Of white voters say they want the winner of the election campaign to fill the vacancy.
The warning signs for Republicans also look at the abortion issue. If she is confirmed, an ultra-conservative jurist Judge Barrett may put forward a crucial vote: 60% of the respondents believe that abortion occurs at any time or some All times are legal. .
Opinion polls show that Mr. Trump won’t get any political benefits from the conflict over abortion rights: 56% said that if his justice would help overthrow Roe v. With Wade, they would be less likely to vote for Trump, and only 24% said they would be more inclined to vote for him.
In addition to the upcoming court battle, the investigation also revealed that Trump is still an unpopular president, and that he has not served the Democratic candidate Joseph Biden on any of the most important issues of the campaign. Biden Jr. has a clear upper hand. Voters have widely rejected his view of managing the coronavirus pandemic, and they have no particular confidence in his handling of public order. Although he achieved relatively high economic results, most voters also said that he was at least partly to blame for the economic downturn.
The most comforting news for Republicans is that at least some Americans seem to have unstable or contradictory views during the nomination process. Although most voters hope that the next president will appoint a successor to Justice Ginsberg, the country is actually divided on whether the Senate should act on Trump’s nomination: 47% of voters say yes, 48% Voters say no. Not yet decided. Despite this, women and independents are still firmly opposed to Trump’s appointment of Senate seats.
The sampling error of the poll was 3.5 percentage points.
A few weeks before the election, the death of Justice Ginsberg shocked Washington, heralded the possibility that the Supreme Court would receive a durable conservative majority, and marked perhaps the most unusual election year in modern history. event.
However, if the pandemic, economic collapse, and racial justice protests become increasingly tense, and so many Americans suffer heavy losses, then they will be powerless to reshape a presidential campaign that polls have shown to be very stable.
The Times survey shows that Mr. Biden leads Trump by 49% to 41% due to his extensive advantages among women, black and Latino voters and his strong support for the president in 2016 Among the advantages in the country include male and elderly voters. Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump were tied between the men, each earning 45%.
The former vice president seems to be much better among college-educated white voters than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden has won 60% of white women with a college degree, while Mr. Trump’s percentage is 34%. He is beating the president. Men with a college degree account for 50% to 45%. According to exit polls, four years ago, Ms. Clinton won only 7 percent of white women in college education, while white men who lost white in college education lost only 14% to Trump.
As votes have been issued in many states and the first presidential debate is scheduled for Tuesday, Mr. Trump has a chance to make a comeback.
There is an important difference from the 2016 campaign, he will need to get closer to 50% to defeat Mr. Biden, because interest in third-party candidates has greatly diminished this year. The nominees of the Liberals and the Green Party only received 3% of the sum. This number is closer to a typical election than the election four years ago. In the four-year elections, the Minor Party candidates voted higher during the election, and in some major states collectively received as much as 6% of the vote.
With the polarization of the country, public opinion on various issues is increasingly tied to the president’s preferences. For example, the question of which candidate did a better job in selecting Supreme Court justices actually coincides with the White House campaign: 50% of voters trust Mr. Biden on the Gordon, 43% of voters trust Mr. Trump, and 7% Of voters trust the White House. Undecided, equal to the percentage of voters in the undecided presidential election
However, when it comes to abortion, voters are not partisan. Although Mr. Trump has angered the left by vowing to fill the seat of Justice Ginsburg quickly, if the court focuses on Roy’s future, not only Republicans will take risks, it is not only a threat to liberalism.
Opinion polls show that 71% of independents say abortion is legal all or most of the time, and even 31% of Republicans say it is legal. Only 33% of people in the country said that the procedure should be illegal at all times or most of the time.
Important constituencies said that if Trump’s nominees would overthrow Ron, they would be unlikely to vote for Trump. These include 65% of independents and 61% of white voters with college education.
Dorothy Stanton, 68, of Decatur, Georgia, said she plans to vote for Mr. Biden and fears that she will return to “the days when legal abortions are impossible.”
Ms. Stanton said: “We may be back to those days. This is not right. If we want to impose restrictions on women’s bodies, we should impose restrictions on men’s bodies.”
Republicans have similar warning signs on health care issues. 57% of voters, including nearly two-thirds of independents, said they support the Affordable Care Act, an Obama-era law that the Obama administration tried to overturn in the Supreme Court. Democrats are trying to put Trump’s civil law challenge at the center of the court battle and pair it with Roe as a measure that his candidate might threaten.
About a month after Mr. Trump used his convention to condemn Mr. Biden and his party as allies of rioters and criminals in a false manner, most voters did not consider the president to be a successful security president. 44% of voters said they approved his handling of law and order, while 52% of voters said they did not approve.
Trump’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic remains the main political responsibility, and opinion polls have shown that he has not succeeded in persuading most voters to view the disease as a threat to rapidly disappearing. A majority of 56% of voters said they disagreed with Trump’s attitude towards the epidemic, including half of white voters and the same proportion of men, who usually lean to the right.
Americans have largely opposed Trump’s policy preferences for the pandemic: two-thirds of voters said they would support the authorization of the national mask, while 63% of voters said that they would support the new To combat the second wave of diseases. they. Mr. Trump opposed both measures. He often laughed at wearing masks and criticized state and local officials for imposing health-based restrictions on public activities.
However, 40% of the president’s party supports the nationwide mask mission.
Mr. Biden has adopted a series of opposing positions more in line with voters’ preferences. Although he acknowledged that the president may not have the power to impose the president by decree, he still approved the authorization of the national mask, and he encouraged public officials to implement blockade measures as needed. He criticized Mr. Trump, who repeatedly hinted that a vaccine would appear before Election Day to politicize the process.
Opinion polls show that the president has not made progress with voters through the suspense of rushing to approve the coronavirus vaccine. 81% said they opposed the distribution of vaccines before the completion of clinical trials.
Although Trump insists that the coronavirus will disappear soon, most voters disagree. Half of the people said they think the most serious consequences of the pandemic are still ahead, while 43% said that the ugliest stage is over.
Opinion polls show that Trump is the strongest on economic issues and is a lasting force for him. 54% of voters said they approved his handling of the economy, including about half of women, Hispanics, and college-educated white voters. These groups mainly support Biden. Part of the reason the president is running for re-election is that once the pandemic passes, he will be best able to restore economic prosperity.
But voters’ evaluation of Mr. Trump’s economic leadership is not entirely positive. In this area, the president seems to have paid the price for his role during the pandemic. 55% of voters said that Trump was to some extent or primarily responsible for the economic downturn. In contrast, 15% of voters said that he was not very responsible for the economic downturn, and 28% said that He is not responsible at all.
Most voters seem to be pessimistic. Many voters firmly believe that the US government is seriously dysfunctional and tend to take drastically the benefits of the 2020 election. Three-fifths of people said that the 2020 election will determine whether the United States will maintain a prosperous democracy, while only 30% said that no matter who wins, the United States will maintain prosperity and democracy.
This perspective cuts across all aspects of population, region, generation and ideology, and most people in each subgroup say that the country’s future as a prosperous democracy is threatened.
Although the majority of voters (54%) said that the country’s political system can still solve its problems, a full 40% of voters said that the United States is too divided to make the political system function properly.
If Biden is elected president, whether these differences will be eased, the differences among voters are almost the same. One-third said the situation would improve, and one-third said it would get worse. Three out of ten voters said the situation will remain the same.
But most voters believe that there is little hope for improvement during Trump’s second term. Only 17% said that after Trump wins again, the country’s divisions will ease, while 50% said the situation will be worse.
This is a cross table of the poll.