Just before the US presidential election, the third and largest wave of coronavirus swept the United States, and the major swing states in the Midwest were proliferating. Countless opinion polls indicate that voters may be suffering from pandemic pain and panic in these places: President Donald Trump is not only at a disadvantage in national opinion polls, but he is particularly poor on the battlefield where the infection rate is soaring.
In the past two weeks, the number of coronavirus cases in Wisconsin (Trump won by 1 percentage point in 2016) has increased by 36%, with an average of 4,200 new infections per day. That̵
The situation in Michigan is almost worrying: the number of cases there has increased by 73% in the past two weeks to 2,600 cases per day, and the number of Covid-19 patients hospitalized since the end of September has more than doubled. This is another swing state. Trump won in 2016 by a slight margin of 0.3%.
In these places and surrounding states, most voters clearly prefer Biden. This has been the case for most of the time, but as election day approaches, this situation may become clearer. Mike Greenfield, Chief Executive Officer of Change Research, said: “Biden has performed well everywhere, but where the coronavirus has been hit hardest, his leadership is stronger.” He has been tracking the impact of the pandemic on voter decisions. manufacture.
Consider the most recent data:
- According to two polls by ABC News in The Washington Post, Michigan Biden has led Trump by 51% to 44%, and the analysis of RealClearPolitics voting data by the Financial Times has put Biden ahead by 7.9 points.
- in the state of Wisconsin, The post-ABC opinion polls made Biden a staggering 17 points, while the “Financial Times” survey results were more moderate-Biden’s advantage was 6.8 points. According to Post ABC, registered voters also prefer Biden in both states. The agency found that the Democratic Party is more trusted than Trump in responding to the pandemic. Biden’s preference for FiveThirtyEight’s vote average has also recently changed slightly.
- In the states bordering Wisconsin, including Iowa with MinnesotaAccording to FiveThirtyEight’s analysis, Biden’s opinion polls are also very good. In Iowa, a RABA research survey showed that Biden accounted for 50% and Trump accounted for 46%. A Gravis Marketing survey showed that Biden improved Minnesota’s score by 14 points.
These findings are consistent with the analysis of Change Research. By looking at 110,000 survey responses from various polls between June and October, they found whether a state has experienced the peak of Covid-19, and the average election result did not increase by 3 percentage points.
For Trump supporters, this trend even persists. Overall, Change Research found that voters who supported Trump in 2016 and lived in states with a higher Covid-19 rate are more likely than voters in states where the virus was better controlled to support Biden in 2020 About 50%.
Greenfield said: “We doubt Biden’s lead in Wisconsin, especially the result of people seeing Trump’s policies in that state ineffective.”
It is not until after November 3 (all votes are counted) that we really know how much the spread of Covid-19 in swing states will affect the election. Voting decisions are complicated, and opinion polls may mislead others. We need more data to assess how well the coronavirus stimulates decision-making.
At the same time, the pandemic has become a key election issue, which has deeply affected and will continue to affect the lives of all voters, how they give birth and say goodbye to their dead relatives, how they work ((if they are still working), please buy groceries, And whether the children can go to school or college. Most Americans are worried about the virus infection and the economic impact of the virus to some extent or very much.
“[People in] Amesh A. Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health and Safety, said: “Places that have been hit hard or are currently hitting hard will seek solutions to their daily problems.” They added: “They may be looking for other candidates s solution.”
From failing to initiate Covid-19 testing and starting operations, to making America’s leading public health agency stand out, to politicizing masking and falsely claiming that the virus is dangerous, the Trump administration has seriously misunderstood the epidemic. And these public health failures cannot even explain the collateral damage caused by the virus: the stock market continues to collapse, the number of unemployed hits a record high, people lose health insurance and housing, and more and more Americans are hungry. Recovering from a pandemic requires wartime efforts, when 1,000 Americans die from the disease every day.
“It is not surprising to me that voters realize the incompetence of the current government in this task is not surprising,” Adalja added.
A few days before the election, Trump was still lying about the reality of the pandemic. He said at a rally in Lamberton, North Carolina on October 25: “We are turning.” “Our numbers are incredible.”
Biden has positioned himself as a candidate who will help the United States rebuild. Shannon Monnat, professor and co-director of policy, local and population health, said that he did not exaggerate the scale of the challenge that the former vice president faced in doing so, but he was someone who was able to solve the problem. Syracuse University Laboratory.
She added: “The President has been asking Americans to deny what is happening before their eyes.” People are tired. They want to see some leading and coordinated national coronavirus response measures. ”
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