However, whether the U.S. withdrawal is short or long depends on the outcome of the presidential election. Trump’s second term will make it clear that international efforts to slow global warming will not include the US government. At the same time, Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden has vowed to rejoin the Paris Agreement after he takes office and make the United States a leader in global climate action.
For observers overseas, just like voters in the United States, the differences will hardly be more obvious, and the stakes will hardly be higher.
Carlos Fuller, the chief negotiator of the Alliance of Small Island States, said: “For us, this may be a question of survival. The Alliance of Small Island States is one of 44 islands and low-lying coastal countries in the world. The negotiation is a group.
He said that rising sea levels are already threatening the living capacity of some island nations in the Pacific, such as Tuvalu and the Marshall Islands. In the Caribbean Sea, ocean acidification and waves continue to drive coral reefs to extinction and destroy fisheries and tourism.
Fuller said: “For us, the next 1
Trump surprised the representatives gathered in Morocco in the 2016 election, and they began to discuss how to fulfill the broad commitments the world made in Paris a year ago. And his rapid reversal of priorities has overturned the US’s previous role in pushing the country to take more measures to deal with global warming.
During the year-long preparations for the Paris climate agreement, President Barack Obama raised climate change issues almost every time he met with foreign leaders. He said in a UN speech: “No country, big or small, rich or poor, will not be spared.”
In contrast, Trump has repeatedly questioned the science of climate change and believes that international cooperation is both dubious and expensive. Due to the complex provisions of the Paris Agreement, the withdrawal of the United States will not be completed until the last few days of Trump’s term. But since he announced on June 1, 2017 that the United States would succumb, he has made up his mind.
Even before the official withdrawal, the Trump administration had already undermined the Paris framework.
While pursuing an “America First” foreign policy, it did not pay the Green Climate Fund, which aims to help developing countries adapt to and mitigate the effects of climate change. It hinders the work of the Arctic Council, an intergovernmental organization dedicated to solving climate-induced problems faced by governments and indigenous communities in one of the world’s fastest warming regions.
It has worked with oil and gas-rich Russia and Saudi Arabia to downplay statements about the urgency of climate change in international negotiations. In accordance with the requirements of the agreement, it did not conduct a biennial accounting of the total US greenhouse gas emissions from man-made sources and how to reduce them. Many people at home and abroad worry that the U.S. retreat has granted permits to other countries to slow down their own commitments to reduce emissions faster.
Moreover, the United States has failed to provide the necessary leadership to accelerate international commitments to reduce greenhouse gas emissions so that the world remains “far below” 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) compared to the end of the 19th century. That is the limit where scientists believe that the earth will suffer irreversible catastrophic damage.
Even before Trump took office, the United States seemed certain to miss its Paris Agreement promise to reduce carbon emissions by 26% to 28% compared to 2005 by 2025.
But even if the coronavirus pandemic caused a decline in economic activity, the Trump administration has widened this gap. Trump has weakened regulations aimed at reducing pollution produced in the United States, which accounts for approximately 15% of global carbon dioxide emissions each year. And the government has been trying to prevent states like California from taking their own steps to get rid of the use of fossil fuels.
“It is clear that President Trump has slowed down global progress and climate ambitions since he took office in 2017. If climate deniers maintain the status of the White House and Congress, the delivery of climate security to the planet will become slower and more Challenging,” wrote Laurence Tubiana, a French diplomat in an email, who presided over the 2015 Paris talks and is considered the main architect of the agreement.
At the same time, Trump’s sudden reversal of US climate policy and his disdain for the Paris Agreement have not completely undermined international efforts. The European Union has passed a green agreement. Japan and the United Kingdom have announced new and more aggressive goals. China has set a goal of achieving carbon neutrality by 2060, and Japan recently expressed its intention to achieve this goal by 2050. Among the other nearly 200 countries, no country followed the United States’ withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.
Peter Betts, an associate researcher at Chatham House, a British think tank, said on the phone: “There has been no one in the past four years, and I don’t think that will be the case in the future. Meet with reporters this week.
“The good news is that the rest of the world is still stuck in the Paris Agreement,” said Pete Ogden, vice president of energy, climate and environment of the United Nations Foundation in an interview. “This shows that even in the face of the Trump administration. The same is true for rejecting support for the agreement.”
If Trump wins re-election and separates the United States from the efforts of the international community to mitigate climate change, many experts believe that without him, most of the United States will move forward. States are already pursuing more environmentally friendly energy policies. Electric vehicles are becoming cheaper and sales are increasing. Renewable energy technologies such as wind and solar are becoming cheaper and growing rapidly.
The American Pledge, which was co-founded by former California Governor Jerry Brown and former New York City Mayor Mike Bloomberg (American Pledge), calculated that the states and cities that account for 70% of the US GDP The alliance with enterprises will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 19% compared to 2005 and reach the emission reduction level by 2025. By implementing “bottom-up” standards, emissions reductions may reach 37% by 2030.
Bloomberg said in a statement: “Despite the Trump administration, we still managed to achieve the Paris goal.” “But we can no longer afford four years of climate denialism and dedication to the fossil fuel industry.”
A campaign organized by the World Wildlife Fund, “We Are Still” stated that more than 3,000 corporate executives, mayors, governors, tribal leaders and others pledged to do their part to achieve the United States’ Commitments of the Paris Agreement.
“The market and the economy are moving in one direction,” said British scholar Rachel Kyte, dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University. “I think we are now on the threshold of capital flow. Point. It will only get faster.”
Bates agrees with this view, saying that the transformation of the “real economy” is beyond the ability of any president to suspend office completely. Even Trump’s efforts to save the coal business failed to reverse the industry’s downward trend. Bates said: “This change, this change is irreversible.” “This is inevitable.”
At the same time, if elected, Biden has vowed to return to the Paris climate agreement almost immediately. He called climate change an existential threat and proposed a four-year, $2 trillion domestic spending plan to combat climate change and environmental racism.
“If Biden wins, it will be a speed bump,” said Alden Meyer, a long-time international climate policy expert, of the Trump era.
Initially, world leaders were supposed to hold a climate negotiation rally in Glasgow, Scotland, a week after the US election, but the meeting was cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. The location of the planned large-scale meeting was temporarily changed to the on-site hospital. The meeting has now been rescheduled to next year, effectively giving countries more time to renew the promises they made five years ago, and promises will increase over time.
Mayer said that if Trump stays in the White House, then, as scientists say, collective efforts to reduce global emissions as quickly as possible in the next few years may be “very challenging.” “It may be impossible for the United States to be on the sidelines.”
However, if elected, Biden will need to do more than just set a new national goal and then log back into the Paris agreement. International negotiations are usually tricky, time-consuming and gradual. Compared with the international situation, Biden looked different when he was vice president.
Jason Bodoff, director of Columbia University’s Center for Global Energy, said that the most difficult relationship he may face is with China, the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases. The two have already had a trade dispute, and the Biden administration may increase frictions in human rights, cyber security, Taiwan and open naval waters.
“The key relationship has changed. Kate said: “The world’s perception of the United States has become a little bleak. “We will not go back to the era of four years ago.” “