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Not all quarterbacks in the first round of 2021 can be resolved.Look at recent history

The 2021 NFL Draft will begin within 9 days, and with five exciting quarterback prospects, they look like they will go early in the first round. However, history tells us that only two of these five countries will enter the NFL.

Well, that’s right.This is me That guy -That guy threw the realistic draft into the excitement before the draft. With the approach of the first round, people’s expectations have soared. Every fan of every team sees the draft as redemption-the annual event will reverse their tragic franchise or provide the final game you are sure to turn their good/great team into a champion.

Although this is part of the fun, it is not really what is going to happen.Or at least not usually occur. History tells us that, statistically speaking, the first-round pick is unlikely to reach a second contract with your favorite team. Moreover, if your team is going to participate in the quarterback, history tells us that he only has a 42.2% chance of signing a second contract.

“Oh yeah?”

; you asked. “What history is that?” -I will tell you. Thanks to ace researcher Paul Hembekides and ESPN Stats & Information’s data processors, we have the data for each first-round game from 2000 to 2016-all 540-and whether they signed a second contract with the team to draft them. Overall, 232 of the 540 who drafted the team after the expiration of the rookie contract resigned. Yes-about 43%. Please note that these are first-round picks, not the entire draft. This is the most important round, one to win the glory. And even in this round, the data shows that the probability of the team being hit is less than 50%.

Pretty rough reality check, isn’t it?

An NFC front office executive said: “There are many things you can’t control.” He prefers not to be named because basically nobody Hope to talk about drafts at this time of year. “You are introducing more than 20 things into currencies that they have never seen before, which will automatically cause people to move from distracting things to where they are. Of course there is harm. The system has changed. I mean , Some quarterbacks can never get a fair performance. In a rookie contract, you change the system, change the coach, sometimes twice or three times, you must treat it as an organizational failure rather than a failure of the potential client himself.”

To be fair, as far as the jets are concerned. Three years ago, they rose from sixth to third in the draft to replace Sam Danold. They fired coach Todd Bowles and general manager Mike MacCagnan after their first year at Darnold University, and fired the coach after he coached for three years​​ Adam Gase. They ranked second in this year’s draft, only trading Darnold to the Panthers because they have decided to draft to replace him.

Darnold is not even in our ESPN statistics and information research because he was selected in 2018. These numbers only last until 2016, because it is not yet certain whether all players drafted in 2017 or later will rank second in contracts. This is the decision season for their fifth year of options. Of the 32 first-round matches in 2017, 15 no longer joined the drafting team, and Darnold was the second of the five-pointers in the first round of 2018. They have been traded and replaced. The trends of these drafts are no better than the 17 we have seen in this article.

When studying the report drafted in 16th 2000, we did find a different position. The offensive forward seems to be a successful first-round pick. Of the 55 offensive tackles performed in the first round of 2000-16, 33 were awarded a second contract with the drafting team. That is 60%. Of the 26 first-round guards, 12 (46.2%) and all 9 first-round centers (100%) did it. Linebacker is also a relatively safe choice, as 54.8% of those drafted (23 out of 42) signed a second contract. But, man, it was ugly after that.

Did you fire all the broad receivers available to your team in the first round of this year? Not so fast, my friend. The wide receiver is the lowest rated group in this study. Of the 70 receivers drafted in the 2000-16 season, only 19 reached a second contract with the drafting team. These include Odell Beckham Jr. and Tavon Austin, who did not fully become the legendary Giants or Rams. For every Calvin Johnson, there is a Kevin White. For every Julio Jones, an AJ Jenkins. This does not mean that your team should not choose a wide range of receivers early-after all, the promotion of superstars is very valuable-but any personal choice is a relatively long-term attempt.

In this study, the next worst position was defensive tackles (35.3%), followed by defenders (35.5%). Some of these reasons may be that the plan is not suitable.

Former Jets and Dolphins general manager (current ESPN NFL analyst) Mike Tannenbaum said: “When you ask players to do exactly the same things they did in college, they might be fine. “When you ask them to do something different, it is that you have brought the unknown and the risk has risen.”

Is there a team that is more successful than other teams in retaining first-round picks? Yes, but remember, this is just a 17-year sample, and the team usually has a first-round pick every year. Having said that, the Cowboys signed 73.3% (11 of 15) of the league’s highest 2000-16 first-round draft pick, making it their second contract. Followed by the Panthers and Texans with 68.8% (both 11 of 16), the Eagles with 60% (9 of 15), and the Steelers with 58.82% (10 of 17).

At the bottom are the Broncos and the Jaguars. During that time, they won 17 first-round picks and signed only 4 or 2 contracts (23.5%). Other companies near the bottom include 25% of Brown and Lions (5 out of 20) and 27.8% of Cardinals and Bill (5 out of 18).

What about the quarterback? Of the 17 drafts in 2000-16, 45 were drafted, and 19 of them (42.2%) received a second contract from the drafting of the team’s contract. These include MVP Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. These include Super Bowl champions Eli Manning (Eli Manning), Joe Flacco (Joe Flacco) and Ben Roethlisberger (Ben Roethlisberger). But they also include Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two in the 2016 draft, who traded with the team that drafted the team during the offseason until their second contract became technically effective.

Does it matter how high you choose? Kind of. Nine of the 12 quarterbacks who received the first pick from these drafts were awarded a second contract with the team that picked them. (JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford, and Jameis Winston did not participate in the competition.) Only one of the three people who were selected second got (Wences). Only one of the four who made the third place got (Ryan). Philip Rivers was selected fourth in 2004. That is 12 out of 19 totals. Finding Roethlisberger at No. 11 or Rodgers at No. 24 is basically like finding a golden ticket in your Wonka Bar.



Mina Kimes explained why she thinks Trey Lance is the most exciting quarterback in the draft.

The question is whether the quarterback succeeds in the NFL is crucial. This is not just the player’s ability and psychological quality. This usually depends on the situation. What kind of team is built around him? How much time does he need before preparing for the game? How much time will he get? Who is guiding him? Compared with the university, he asks him much more, how will he deal with it?

Tannenbaum said: “In college, coaches will see people watching every game.” “In the NFL, with 15 seconds left in the game, communication between the coach and the quarterback is cut off. If you don’t Ability to play the right game on your own, it is difficult to become a successful quarterback NFL.”

This whole thing is difficult. This is something too many people have forgotten. Everyone should remember that on April 29, Roger Goodell called out his name, and fans held parties or hosts based on whether they liked the draft. This is not a question of picking the right person and inserting them. Instead, choose the right people, put in the right structure to ensure that they work properly, and hope that there will be no mistakes to eliminate them. With all of this in mind, it’s easy to see why most first-round picks fail to do it. And why the first night of the draft is just the beginning of a long and complicated process, and this process will determine whether they do so.

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