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Memo: Texas may trigger a political earthquake

The results of the Texas presidential election will fully illustrate the current political situation in the United States and the way forward.

If it is a Democratic candidate Joe BidenAfter Joe Biden Harris (Joe BidenHarris) traveled in Texas on Friday, opinion polls showed a relationship between Trumps. The Florida Heat in Biden, Florida sent more than a dozen Trump rally participants to Hospital Harris Hospital, and there are more targets of online false alarms than pennies: report more Bearer status, President TrumpDonald John Trump’s Biden campaign attacked Facebook after thousands of ads were blocked by the platform’s pre-election blackout.Mnuchin said he understood the letter Pelosi had sent him, saying that stimulus news “Harris” went to Texas on Friday, after polls showed that Trump and Biden (Biden) There is a connection The landslide is about to fail.

If the results are even close, the Lone Star State will send a bright warning signal to the Republican Party, especially when it comes to elections involving Trump’s practices, including Trump’s tough comments on immigration.

However, if the president returns home comfortably, it will show that many important areas of the country are still out of reach for Democrats.

Opinion polls show that Texas is more competitive this year at the presidential level than a generation.

A new poll from Lowell, Massachusetts shows that the race is actually tied, with 48% of voters supporting Trump and 47% of voters supporting Biden. The Cook Political Report lists Texas as tortured. As of Thursday night, Trump had a 2.3-point advantage in the state’s RealClearPolitics poll average.

The number of early votes in the second most populous country in the United States hit a record high.

Statistics maintained by the Texas Tribune show that as of Wednesday, 8.6 million Texans had voted. The early voting period lasts until Friday, and most experts believe that the total number of early votes may exceed the total number of voters in the 2016 general election. The number of early votes in 2016 was about 6.6 million, and the total number of votes was less than 9 million.

The result is anyone’s guess.

Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston, said: “The bark of the tree is tightly tightened.”

Biden’s own astonishment in the fierce competition to win the country.The last Democrat to hold a presidential election in Texas is Jimmy CarterJimmy Carter (Jimmy Carter) Why Biden can actually win the Texas Republican Senate confirming Trump’s Supreme Court successor to succeed Ginsburg Davis: In tonight’s debate Eve-we have seen this moment in history, and more In 1976.Four years ago, Trump defeated Hillary ClintonHillary Diane Rodham Clinton Harris (Harriary Diane Rodham Clinton) in a poll on Friday showed that the relationship between Trump and Biden Harris has become more frequent than Pence After the goal of online misinformation, Harris will head to Texas: “Hill’s Campaign Report”: What are the latest opinion polls’ comments on the presidential election | The Supreme Court vetoed Republicans’ attempts to prevent NC mail voting from expanding MORE The state dropped by 9 percentage points.

Without the state’s 38 votes, it would be impossible to see the road to a presidential university. In any case, Trump’s failure in the state may well mean that he is having a bad day across the country and is losing other key battlefields.

Texas has been politically transferred for years, although progress has been slow. In 2000 and 2004, former President George W. Bush’s campaign profits were more than 20 points higher than that of his Democratic challengers, which may not be surprising considering that he served as governor. Former President Barack Obama lost Texas at a double-digit rate in 2008 and 2012, and then Clinton reduced the matter to 9 points in 2016.

The trend of change was once again shown by the current representative in 2018. Beto O’Rourke (Texas) caused widespread national concern when he tried to remove the current senator. Ted CruiseRafael (Ted) Edward Cruz (Edward Cruz) Harris will travel to Texas on Friday, after polls showed a relationship between Trump and Biden Cruz hopes donors will repay him for the loan Why did K Biden in the 2018 campaign really win Texas (Texas). Cruz persisted, but for Cruz and his party, the win rate was only 2.6 percentage points, which was unacceptably narrow.

Biden campaign activists have argued that the state’s Democrats are energized by O’Rourke’s performance-Biden continues to benefit.

The source said: “Even if Beto failed to do it in the end, what he did has awakened a new kind of voters to think that’my vote is important’.” “This is the situation this year.”

Many analyses of Texas focus on the Hispanic population, which has been growing for many years. But experts in the state said it is important not to ignore other factors in the more friendly integration of the Democratic Party, including the influx of new immigrants from other states and the increasingly liberal voting by Asians.

“Since the last presidential election, we have added about 2 million registered voters,” said Keir Murray, a Texas Democrat strategist. “Latin Americans will soon make up a large population of the state, and we have a large number of college-educated professionals whose politics are not as reliable as Texas.”

Murray did not predict Biden’s victory, but said the state was “quite competitive.” But he asserted that demographic changes and President Trump’s polarization are a valid combination.

He said: “These trends are already happening.” “But President Trump has lashed out at them during his tenure.”

The Trump campaign has no suggestions about the president’s possible loss of Texas. To the nose.

At the peak of the campaign season, he did not need to visit the state. Campaign spokesperson Samantha Zager said: “Without ground games and no data, Joe Biden’s campaign was used to fabricate stories and wasted money in states that could not win, such as Texas. ”

The Trump campaign took note of the huge sums of money O’Rourke spent (approximately $80 million) when he failed in the Senate, thus supporting the case. Supporters of the president still remember that, in some respects, Clinton might win the Texas prediction in 2016.

However, not all Republicans sound so optimistic.Sen John CorningJohn Cornyn Gopp (John CornynGOP) believes that the road to maintaining a majority in the Senate Cook has pushed Texas to a “toss” Biden into Trump territory (R-Texas.) Faced with a severe challenge from Democratic Party MJ Hegar, he said in an interview with the “Daily Briefing” on the Fox News Channel on Tuesday that the results in Texas this year “will be better than traditionally. Much closer.”

Former Governor of Texas. Rick PerryHill’s Morning Report-Sponsored by Facebook-Trump, Biden (Biden) Blitzkrieg State Texas Republicans ring the alarm after 2020 In guerrilla warfare, can Chip Roy overcome Trump Trouble?More (R) told The Hill earlier this week, “The Republican Party in Texas in the past 10 years… is complacent.”

A question facing the Republican Party in the state and across the country is whether Trump’s policies or his rhetoric and rude character put Texas in danger. This question is crucial, because if Texas becomes a solid democracy, then a national victory for the Republican Party is almost impossible.

Brendan Steinhauser, a Republican strategist in Texas, said voters in the state did not abruptly abandon conservative policies as a whole.

He said that even the swing voters in Texas “want to lower taxes. They don’t like the huge government expenditures. They are open to many conservative ideas. But this is how you talk to people and make people feel. “

He added that Trump “is losing their personality and character.”

Currently, the only thing that experts can predict with confidence is a fierce game.

Richard Murray of the University of Houston said: “Very close, very close.” He asked him to assess the state of the game in Texas. “If the final difference exceeds two percentage points, I would be surprised.”

The memo is a reporting column by Niall Stanage, focusing on the tenure of Donald Trump.

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