Leicester City is destined to qualify for the Champions League for most of the Premier League. During the fierce competition around Christmas, only Liverpool outperformed the foxes on the league table. Leicester won 12 games in the first 16 games, and even within the same period of time the goal difference exceeded the fixed-speed Red Army. In the 16th game this week, the Fox team led Manchester City by 3 points, only 8 points behind Liverpool.
FiveThirtyEight’s club football prediction model doesn’t like Leicester’s chance of winning the miraculous title again-as of December 11, 2019, the Fox family has only a 3% chance of winning the title-but the model likes Leicester The opportunity to qualify for the Champions League. Even after Leicester̵
From December 4th to July 1st, Leicester’s chance of winning the top continent’s competition has never been lower than 84%, reaching a peak of 97% on February 19th, which banned Manchester City from participating in 2020-21 The Champions League version of its Financial Fair Play (FFP) rules was violated after a few days in 2010 and 2021-222. With the implementation of the ban, Leicester, ranked third, became the second best team in England in the eyes of the European Union. If the foxes look like safe bets for the Champions League qualification before the Manchester City ban, then they appear to be affirmative after the fact.
But since the 4-0 home fight, it suffered a Liverpool blow on Boxing Day and Leicester has struggled. Before the loss, the Foxes had 39 points from 18 games. They only scored 20 points in the subsequent 16 games. Since Game Week 19, only seven teams (each sitting in the lower half of the table, five of which are fighting relegation) have fewer points than Leicester.
In a way, Leicester has been his architect of demise. In 2020 against Bournemouth, Brighton and Watford, the team’s score has dropped, three teams are still fighting the relegation, with three games left, while Norwich City Already destined to win the championship next season.
Even if Leicester won at the beginning of the season, its performance exceeded its due level because it far exceeded the expected goal (xG) statistics: From the first week of the game to the 18th week of the game, Leicester City An average of 2.28 goals per 90 minutes is still only 1.92 xG. This excessive performance makes people doubt whether Leicester’s outstanding performance is sustainable. When goals no longer fly faster than expected (Leicester’s poor performance since Boxing Day), although the xG is 1.65, only an average of 1.41 goals per 90 minutes; and Leicester’s defense When the weak state turns into an average, it is clear that Leicester’s outstanding performance is not only unsustainable, but may also be a sea rage building.
After Manchester City won the appeal of the Sports Arbitration Court (CAS), Leicester’s predicament was more complicated, and the court revoked the UEFA injunction. If the ban is maintained, Manchester City’s position in the Champions League next season will fall to fifth place in the Premier League. Leicester’s status has not been particularly good for six months so far, but as of July 8, Leicester’s chances of qualifying for the Champions League are still very high, because it seems that fifth place is enough.
But the CAS reversal means that this year will not fall to fifth place, Leicester’s odds and form remain free fall: the remaining three games, the Fox team ranked fourth, leading Manchester United in goals, and They are closely connected. But the FiveThirtyEight model gives the Foxes a 47% chance of qualifying for the Champions League. A week ago, Leicester was the sure thing; today, Leicester is no longer the result of a coin toss.
It remains to be seen whether manager Brendan Rodgers can correct the ship and let Leicester fly across the line. Putting a hot Jamie Vardy on the team will definitely help. Against Tottenham Hotspur, Sheffield United and Manchester United, these three clubs with their own European ambitions will help the team less. But Leicester proved its ability to defy expectations. The last time it did this, it won the Premier League. If this is not done this time, there will be no parades on the streets of Leicester-only a long and empty hypothetical analysis.
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