For some stay-at-home travelers eager to take a vacation, the question is not whether to book a vacation this year, but when.
A survey conducted by Destination Analysts, a travel market research company last week, showed that the enthusiasm for travel reached its highest point in a year. It is expected that 87% of American travelers will travel this summer.
However, summer is the best time to travel this year, or should I be cautious? Medical professionals have proposed several options for how it might work in the rest of 2021
1. Low infection rate in summer
Dr. Sharon Nachman, director of the Department of Pediatric Infectious Diseases at Stony Brook Children’s Hospital, said that she expects the infection rate this summer to be lower than in winter.
She said: “When I think about the vaccines available to children 12 and over this summer, the risk to the family will continue to decrease, so that more activities can be carried out and the risk to everyone is lower.”
Dr. Anne Rimoin, a professor of epidemiology at the Fielding School of Public Health at UCLA, said she believes that “in the summer, the incidence of disease is much lower. This does have a chance, but it means All of us must unite, do our best to get vaccinations, wear masks, maintain social distancing and practice hand hygiene”.
Dr. Anne Rimoyne of the Fielding School of Public Health at the University of California, Los Angeles, said that vaccines are important for safe summer travel, although she pointed out that vaccines “cannot guarantee” that they will not be infected.
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As for whether it is safe to travel this summer, she said it depends on two factors: vaccination and vaccination.
“It all depends on how many vaccines we get,” Limoyne said. “These variants are more contagious, so…the unvaccinated variants are more susceptible to infection.”
2. Beautiful summer and “mild autumn”
When Scott Gottlieb, the former director of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” program in April, he expected the infection rate in the United States to be “really low” this summer, which is very likely. Will lead to a “relatively mild decline.”
He said that after that, the situation may change.
He said: “I think we should consider late winter.” “I think I hope that the overall death and disease caused by Covid will be reduced, but it may start to spread again.”
Gottlieb said that Covid-19 will “this year…transform from more pandemics to seasonal diseases.” However, if a variant of the previous immunity or vaccine can be “pierced”, this situation may change, although he pointed out that “we have not seen this yet.”
He said: “I don’t think we will have a holiday party in the back room of a crowded restaurant on December 20.” “I think we will have to act differently in winter.”
Gottlieb said: “But, in any case, I think this will be a fact of life for many years.”
3. Outbreaks and outbreaks
Dr. Charles Bailey, director of infection prevention medicine at St. Joseph’s Hospital in Providence and Providence Mission Hospital, believes that the outbreak this summer will last a full year, so he does not believe that this summer is a safe trip before the infection returns in the fall.
He said that he expects most parts of the United States to continue to return to normal, while the region will experience “local disease outbreaks-local and regional’hot spots’-local and regional’hot spots’ of Covid activities until the rest of 2021 until early 2022.”
Mark Cameron, an epidemiologist and associate professor at Case Western Reserve University School of Medicine, also does not think that summer is “a window of opportunity that can provide completely safe travel by itself” because of concerns about the wave of last summer. And the possibility of using variant fuels has exploded.
He compares the current situation of the pandemic with “Look at the ticking and ticking of the irregular pendulum. ”
Cameron said: “The pandemic may end with the unexpected spread of the virus, and new variants will break out or spread semi-regularly, especially in areas where vaccine utilization is low or vaccine hesitation is high, just like the current flu. .”
He said: “The moment when we enter the vaccination rate, mutation spread and Covid-19 fatigue competing with each other, it is critical to controlling this virus and its growing evasion of eradication efforts.”
4. Opportunity to soar again in summer
Former Professor of Harvard Medical School, “Variants! William Haseltine, author of the book “The Challenge of Transformation of COVID-19,” said that there may be another surge in the summer, and traveling in the summer will only make the problem worse.
He said: “Choose more people to escape the real pandemic stress and fatigue, and we risk more cases this summer,” he said.
It is expected that Covid-19 will eventually become a seasonal disease, but it is unclear when it will happen.
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Haseltine said that due to the seasonality of other coronaviruses and influenza viruses, many people hope that the warm summer weather will reduce Covid cases.
But it turns out that the seasonality of the virus is “much less than many people expected,” he said. “If you look back at 2020 and early 2021, you will find that, as one might expect, there has been an increase in autumn and winter, but an increase in spring and summer.”
Although the virus that causes Covid-19 is expected to become a seasonal virus at some point, the United Nations World Meteorological Organization emphasized in a report that there is “no evidence” that this year is different from 2020.
Dr. Supriya Narasimhan, head of infectious diseases at Santa Clara Valley Medical Center, agrees that even in places where vaccines are actively introduced, there is a possibility of another surge in summer.
She agreed that Covid’s “seasonality is smaller than flu” and said that the factor that will affect whether flu reappears is the public’s compliance with masks, vaccine intake and mutation.
“She said that this is a game between cats and mice, in which the virus has mutated and the only way to stop its spread is to stop the spread. Even if there is. “
She said: “I think we need more data to make travel decisions.”
Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb is a CNBC contributor and a board member of Pfizer, genetic testing startup Tempus, healthcare technology company Aetion Inc., and biotechnology company Illumina. He has also served as the co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean’s “Healthy Navigation Group”.