Madison, Wisconsin – With the surge in Type 19 COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths, experts believe that unless there are some major changes, there is no sign that growth will slow.
Ajay Sethi, an assistant professor in the Department of Population Health Sciences at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said: “In Wisconsin, the first 100,000 cases took about seven and a half months.” “It took about 36 days to harvest. To the next 100,000 cases. We are expected to receive the next 100,000 cases in 20 days.”
From this perspective, there are a total of 300,000 people in Wisconsin who have tested positive for COVID-19, which will make Randall Stadium three times larger.
Sisi said: “Many cases have been restored.”
This far exceeds the average area of the stadium.
As the state’s daily increase in cases regularly reaches the 7,000 mark, UW-Madison experts like Sethi are watching the exponential growth of the coronavirus.
Sisi said: “I see terrible things now.” “Currently, the peak is much larger than what we have seen.”
Sethi is committed to simulating and predicting the potential growth of COVID-19 to help UW Health prepare. Professor Oguzhan Alagoz from the School of Engineering, School of Medicine and School of Public Health is doing the same type of work.
Alagoz said: “Due to exponential growth, the number of people you spread the disease has basically doubled, tripled, quadrupled. This may lead to terrible consequences in such a short period of time.” “This is the most dangerous period of our pandemic. one.”
He has been paying close attention to hospitalization, which is a reliable indicator of the impact of a pandemic.
“Look at the entire state of Wisconsin. On September 18, we had 342 hospitalizations, and on November 10, we had 2,000 hospitalizations.” Alagoz said, adding that, according to the Wisconsin Hospital Association, Wisconsin The number of hospitalizations in the central and southern regions tripled in less than a month. The virus is ubiquitous, with no outbreaks in larger cities or isolated facilities like the spring. “Our community has completely lost control.”
“It’s in every age group. It’s all over the state, so it’s worse.” Sethi said. “If I think back to the early part of modeling, I don’t know if we ever thought it would be so bad.”
John Yin, a professor of chemistry and bioengineering at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said of exponential growth: “We don’t have a good intuition for these types of numbers.”
He explained that using the metaphor of a few cents, this type of growth can quickly get out of control. With linear growth, you will get one penny every day, reaching 28 cents after 28 days. With exponential growth, people will start with a penny and double every day, eventually exceeding $1.3 million in 28 days.
Inn said: “It is difficult for the human brain to understand this.” “I have to use a calculator to solve it.”
Alagos said: “Unless we make some major changes or the vaccine is about to start, we will not be able to reverse the situation.” “That’s where I really worry.”
Every professor emphasized that stopping proliferation is still in our hands, but this will require more people to play a role.
Inn said: “It is clear that counterintuitive things such as rapid growth or explosive growth can be offset by distance or wearing a mask.”
Even with a large number of figures, Sisi said that the most important thing we can do is to fuel the pandemic.
Sethi said: “You don’t need a fancy model to know how bad things are.” “Any spread of COVID during Thanksgiving will inevitably cause someone to miss Christmas.”
“If we are careful, we can change the trajectory of COVID-19,” Alagoz said. “If not, we won’t have any chance. It will only get worse.”
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