After the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus in March brought an unprecedented market rebound, the increased outbreak of COVID-19 cases in the United States provided a new intuition for Wall Street bulls.
The cases in the southern and western United States have accelerated and threatened to reverse or stagnate the plan to reopen the economy that has been frozen for almost a few months to limit the spread of the deadly spread. In the past few days, as of Tuesday, hospitalization and infection cases in California and other regions have become prevalent again. As of Tuesday, there are more than 7,000 new cases. In Arizona, confirmed cases of infection have increased by nearly 50% from a week ago, and are reported by the Wall Street Journal, the region with the largest increase in the United States.
read:Fauci said that in the 40 years since the outbreak of the virus, he has never seen anything like COVID-19
It is reported that in all positive cases, nearly 48% of people are between 22-44 years old.
Although the rise in infection rates may not represent the “second wave” — experts say we are still in the first wave of the United States — the stock market on Wednesday suffered its biggest decline since June 11, the Dow Jones Industrial Average
S&P 500 Index
Closed down by at least 2.6%, the Nasdaq Composite Index
Snatch an eight-day winning streak.
In the course of this pandemic, market experts evolved into armchair epidemiologists, who found themselves having to assess the impact of the rising wave of infections globally and elsewhere in the world. Thomas Lee, head of Fundstrat’s global advisory firm, said in a research report published on June 23 that the biggest impact is policy.
“This raises many questions, but the most important is the policy direction. Given the surge in COVID-19 cases, states and the United States need to reduce transmission-of course, this is correct.
According to the analysis of data compiled by Johns Hopkins University in the Wall Street Journal, the average 7-day average of new cases recorded in 33 states on Tuesday was higher than the average of the past two weeks.
Ironically, rising infection rates and hospitalization rates across the United States have forced New York (formerly the center of a global pandemic) to recover from Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Washington, Utah and Texas segregated travelers. New York State is implementing a 14-day quarantine agreement under the coordination of Connecticut and New Jersey, and these states have stabilized in recent weeks.
Lee writes that one situation investors are concerned about is that a surge in the number of infections will force a wider resumption of orders at home. In many parts of the world, this practice has been implemented politically and economically after three months of implementation. People are unhappy.
“The last option may be to restore the home,” Li wrote. He said: “The best solution, and probably the most unpopular, is to ask for masks.”
Lee listed 10 measures that can be taken to reduce the surge in disease caused by this new coronavirus strain:
- Improve contact information (“fashion”, but fail in the US)
- Strengthen social distance
- Isolate vulnerable groups (elderly and comorbid patients)
- Mask required (very unpopular)
- Need disinfection measures
- Close rogue place
- Monitoring waste (feces detection work, please see our previous comments)
- Closed state borders
- Close international borders
- Rollback/reclose state (absolute last state)
- Many states, including Washington and California, are required to wear face masks. “Before developing a vaccine or cure, this will be one of our best defenses.” Washington Governor Jay Insley said in a statement.
- At a congressional hearing on Tuesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, a public health expert, described the increase in cases as a “disturbing” development and vowed to increase testing, but also expressed hope that progress would be made in vaccines .
It is unclear why some states broke out suddenly while others broke out, although experts say that compliance with cross-state agreements is not consistent with stricter public health policies.
In Arizona, some medical professionals have linked the surge in cases in Grand Canyon to premature cancellations of orders at home. Arizona placed an order a month ago. Governor Doug Ducey said that even if the number of cases increased, he would not consider resuming in-situ asylum measures.
Earlier this week, the number of California-related COVID-19 hospitalizations reached a new high, exceeding the highest level in late April. Data as of Sunday shows that 3,702 people have been hospitalized in the state, and the increased infection rate is due to the erosion of social distance, especially when we enter the heart of the summer.
Fundstrat’s Lee attributed at least part of the increase in the case to a wave of national protests that broke out in late May and early this month after the murder of George Floyd.
The black handcuffed man Floyd died on May 25, after the white white Minneapolis City official Derek Chauvin was arrested in the video and his knee was extended. The neck was 8 minutes and 46 seconds long, although Freud said he could not breathe and stopped moving. This move triggered a wave of civil unrest about American inequality and the treatment of black Americans in policy detention.
However, after this incident, social isolation measures have been greatly relaxed.
Lee wrote: “Every protest involves tens of thousands of Americans who are close to a few hours.”
read: Disney delays reopening of Disneyland and other California theme parks
“What happened in Houston? George Floyd is from the third district of Houston, and this ward was the earliest protest site.” Lee added, referring to the most populous city in Texas Rising cases.
Dr. Robert Quigley, senior vice president and regional medical director of International SOS, a medical safety and travel safety company, said it is difficult to blame the resurgence of any case on any state.
He said: “Even as an immunologist, I am struggling with certain characteristics and behaviors of this new virus.” He refers to the disease being highly contagious compared to other coronaviruses.
The strain was first discovered in Wuhan, China in December and has infected 9 million people worldwide. The World Health Organization currently estimates that 16% of COVID-19 patients are asymptomatic and can transmit coronavirus, while other data indicate that 40% of coronavirus transmission is due to carriers who do not show symptoms of the disease. As a result, public health officials advised people to keep a distance of six feet.
Read: In some states, the surge in coronavirus cases is not part of the “second wave”
Quigley said it is important that states must impose restrictions and force citizens to wear masks and follow proper sanitation procedures to limit the spread of the virus.
He said: “What we know is that if we abide by social alienation and general precautions, not just washing hands and wearing masks at any time, the possibility of spreading the disease will be greatly reduced.”
In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Dr. Jeremy Faust said that state and local governments must make evidence-based decisions when making decisions about pathogens. I think the lesson is that they need to be “data-driven rather than date-driven,” he said.
He also advocated various measures to reduce the spread of communicable diseases in general, including wearing a mask.
He said of health measures to curb the disease: “It helps… Just because something is not perfect does not mean it is not helpful.”
As for the market downturn, Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders told MarketWatch via email that investors may already be complacent about the epidemic, and The hope is for a V-shaped or rapid economic recovery.
She said: “We may have recently appeared’hopium’ due to the improvement in economic data, so we feel calmed down, but people have more and more reasons (reasonable) to worry about the economy’s ability to maintain a V-shaped recovery in the case of an increase in cases.” She said: “Even if the government does not shut down again, it will not prevent companies from doing so, or consumers decide to take refuge on their own.”
In Wednesday’s sell-off, there is also growing concern about the differences between the buzzing technology stocks, which is boosted by the long-term impact of virus outbreaks and cyclical stocks that are more sensitive to economic prospects.
Brian Price, head of investment management at the Federal Financial Network, said: “People have some reasonable concerns about stock valuations and gains over the past few months.”
“A large amount of monetary and fiscal stimulus measures have been injected into the global economy, which is the main driving force for the development of this market, but it seems ambiguous about the additional support.” The unwillingness to expand or provide additional stimulus measures may bring to the market A risk factor, and this may not be fully understood at this time. “He said he called for further fiscal stimulus measures to mitigate the damage to businesses during this public health crisis.