Although the current focus of President-elect Biden’s work will likely be plagued by the domestic situation, with the Covid-19 pandemic and political disagreements in the United States, the Trump administration has also chosen to hand him a new series as part of its final behavior. The dilemma of international diplomacy. In some cases, these are life and death situations.
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo announced these moves, which means that Biden will begin his presidency with several controversial key diplomatic relations in accordance with the policies established by his predecessor.
Rafael Pantucci, a senior researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said: “The Trump administration has locked a series of conflicts in place, which has changed the starting point for Biden to take office on the world stage.”
However, since Washington established formal diplomatic relations with Beijing in 1979, it has refused to establish formal diplomatic relations with Taipei to avoid confrontation with the leaders of the Chinese Communist Party. CCP leaders still see the island-home to about 24 million people-as part of China.
Critics worry that the Trump administration’s move this week will have Beijing’s influence on the incoming Biden administration, although the growing US opposition to Taiwan and China’s support for China has largely become a bipartisan consensus in Washington. .
Pan Tucci said: “For example, if the United States decides to cooperate with China to combat climate change, China can ask the United States to change its position in Taiwan.”
Whether the Chinese hawks like it or not, Biden may have to cooperate with China to solve climate change, global terrorism and various other issues.
For a long time, analysts have expected Biden to maintain a hawkish stance on China, but they believe that Biden will work with international allies to build a coherent alliance, rather than maintaining Trump’s maximum pressure method.
Leslie Vinjamuri, head of the United States and Americas project at Chatham House, said: “What Biden should do is to work with European allies to adopt a consistent strategy against China, but to do this, you It takes some time to formulate.” “You don’t need to encounter more direct problems.”
It is already an arduous task for partners, especially those in Europe, to have a unified position in China.
“European countries have very different attitudes towards China. Some countries (such as the United Kingdom) are very concerned, while other countries (such as Italy and Germany) are more of China as an export market,” British Foreign Secretary Tom Tugendhat (Tom Tugendhat) ) Means. Business Selection Committee.
Although it is easy to think that Biden can simply reverse the policy, once he takes office, he neglects the situation of losing both sides, and Trump stays as president.
As Pantuqi pointed out, the surrender will “suffice Biden’s political capital.” Anti-China sentiment is very strong throughout the political channel. If Biden re-imposes restrictions on contact with Taiwan, it will also enable Beijing to declare that the United States has accepted its status as a Chinese province.
Pantuqi added that this “may have a significant impact on Taiwan’s democracy itself, because Xi Jinping and his allies will not hesitate to assert their authority when there is enough room to do so.” Pantuqi warned that despite China ” It is extremely unlikely to attack Taipei”, but it may “further intervene” [by Beijing] Politically, economic intervention” if Trump’s policies still exist.
Bullying Houthis is “fantasy”
The situation in Yemen is equally worrisome, and the situation may be even more deadly due to the actions of the Trump administration.
Since 2014, the war in Yemen has continued. The diplomatic route to end the conflict between the Saudi-backed government and Iran-backed Houthi rebels has so far failed.
UNICEF described it as “the largest humanitarian crisis in the world, with more than 24 million people (about 80% of the population) in need of humanitarian assistance, including 12 million children.”
Chris Doyle, Chairman of the Council for Understanding of the United Arab Kingdom, said: “The designation of the Hussites as a terrorist organization will not resolve the conflict in any sense and may actually prolong the conflict.”
“Houthi hardliners may feel empowered to turn more to Iran. They will be reluctant to participate in diplomatic procedures or channels to Saudi Arabia.”
Analysts say that the longer the crisis lasts, the worse the situation for those in need of humanitarian assistance.
The name of terrorism only makes it more difficult for aid organizations to deliver food and medical supplies to the country. Doyle said: “This will also make it difficult for aid organizations to deploy personnel, because the Houthis can control the two main points of entry in Yemen.”
Doyle added: “By choosing one side in a conflict, you can indeed hurt civilians. This is very irresponsible.” “The idea that you can bully the Hussites to soften their position is an illusion.”
Obama’s Cuba policy nailed in the coffin
Pompeo’s redesignation of Cuba as a sponsor of national terrorism may have the least impact, but this is a personal loss for Biden and a major political victory for Trumpism.
In doing so, Trump is beating the coffin of Barack Obama’s efforts to normalize relations with Cuba.
The story of how Trump’s hard-line stance against the Cuban communist leader played a good role in the Hispanic vote in Florida has been and will continue to be written. This last move is likely to leave a legacy for those who bear the Trump torch in 2024.
“If the U.S. goes to Cuba now and says they want to return to where the Obama administration ended, then Cuba can reasonably ask why it is possible to re-elect someone like Trump in 2024, which should bother him,” Pan Tuqi said.
Biden may consider resetting the position, although this is not the focus of his work, but Biden may consider this because he is Obama’s vice president.
The remaining issues are of particular concern to Vinjamuri.
She said: “These are indeed the dying days of the Trump administration. They do seem to have laid the foundation for the foundation they can build.” She hinted that Pompeo’s final move may be to improve his toughness in the campaign. The 2024 presidential election.
Biden will be sworn in on January 20. At least for now, Trump will resign.
The new government may need a full term to dissolve the 11th hour decision made by its predecessor.