President Trump will almost certainly kill the Iran nuclear deal in four years-but Biden’s election will not necessarily save.
Big picture: Saving the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Action Plan (JCPOA) is near the top of Biden’s foreign policy priority list. He said that once Iran resumes compliance, he will rejoin the agreement and use it as the basis for negotiating a broader and longer-lasting agreement with Iran.
break down: Trump withdrew the United States from the deal in 2018, restored U.S. sanctions and added new sanctions under the “maximum pressure” campaign that undermined Iran’s economy.
- He believes that allowing Iran to yield will eventually bring it back to the negotiating table. That hasn̵
- Iran is still a party to the JCPOA, but has systematically violated the agreement since May last year.
- This is not a bomb rush, but Iran has shortened its “burst time” from one year to about three months.
Europe signs agreement France, Germany and Britain have been desperately trying to save it.
- A European diplomat told Axios in September that he is concerned about the polls on the one hand and the calendar on the other. He expects that if the transaction can only last for a few months, Washington will provide support.
But the Trump administration Currently trying to complete the transaction, in part by adding a series of sanctions, it may be difficult for Biden to lift it politically.
- Rob Malley, Barack Obama’s former Middle East consultant and current International Crisis Group president, said that these efforts are only possible if Biden wins on November 3 Will be strengthened.
- “I’m sure that people around the president will say,’You are the only thing between President Biden, and all this is what you did to Iran. Now you have two and a half months to do everything. Things. It can make it impossible to return to JCPOA.””
Iran’s domestic politics may still be more challenging. President Hassan Rouhani’s “reformist” government was severely burned, and hardliners are expected to take over after the presidential elections in June next year.
- Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that if the United States does this, Iran will return to compliance-but insists that Tehran will not consider any other US requirements and expects Trump’s sanctions “make up”.
- Zarif (Zarif) last month expressed doubts about the prospect of reaching a follow-up agreement, and some people even postponed the sunset clause of the JCPOA. He told the Foreign Relations Committee: “We spend more time negotiating these restrictions.”
situation: “There are obstacles-possible demands from Iran, our own politics, the more complex relations between the United States and Russia and China now-so it will not be smooth sailing,” Marley said.
- Nevertheless, he continued: “Gravity is going to return to JCPOA.”
How does this work
Iran took about six months Former Energy Secretary Ernest Moniz (Ernest Moniz) stated that it will comply with the JCPOA for the first time.
- He said that since “this script is already running” and Iran has fewer things to dismantle, it can be completed in about four months. This will require the help of Russia, which is critical to the 2015 process.
This means that the earliest Iran can return When the next government takes office, it can ensure compliance with regulations.
- Moniz said: “Conscientiously conducting JCPOA negotiations may need to wait for the arrival of the new president.” He pointed out that the new negotiations require the approval of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
- He said: “At least under potential circumstances, it may be necessary to appoint a new president at least in both places,”
Moniz said that the revitalization of JCPOA It will give the world confidence that Iran has not established a nuclear weapons program-this was its original purpose, but it will not be enough.
- Although the verification measures will remain indefinitely, the restrictions on Iran’s nuclear materials and nuclear facilities will disappear in the next few years.
- The upper limit of Iran’s low-enriched uranium supply (which Moniz considers the “largest single nuclear restriction”) will expire in 2030.
In future negotiations, Moniz added: “Regional issues will have to be more prominent and focused.”
Two ways forward
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu He is one of the loudest and most influential critics of transactions in 2015.
- According to a report by Barack Lavid of Aksios, he refused to guess what Biden’s potential victory would mean for US policy on Iran, instead remaining silent and hoping that Trump would win.
- However, Israelis, Saudis and Emirati will oppose returning to JCPOA. They oppose the fact that the deal will not restrict Iran’s missiles, its proxy forces or wider regional activities.
Trump administration requirements Iran negotiates on all these aspects as part of any deal-and claims that Trump will be forced to do so if he is re-elected.
- Trump’s Iranian envoy, Elliott Abrams, recently told CNN: “For now, Iranians will be aware of this because they can’t spend another four years, they will have to Negotiate.”
What to see: Biden envisioned an almost completely opposite path to reaching a broader agreement with Iran, but he admitted that there is no guarantee that Iran will even resume compliance with the JCPOA.
- Like many other issues, his campaign emphasized the need to restore the credibility of the United States and its allies.
- Biden’s top foreign policy adviser, Tony Blinken, said in this week’s “Podcast Save the World” podcast: “If Iran decides not to do this, then I think the world will be able to solve this problem together.”
- “And, if Iran does participate, then at least we will first come back with the people who helped us reach an agreement.”
deeper: Biden’s allies first approach