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Home / Health / Health officials said that UT COVID-19 modeling data was “improved” one day after the “gloomy” forecast

Health officials said that UT COVID-19 modeling data was “improved” one day after the “gloomy” forecast



Dr. Mark Escott said at a public health press conference in Austin that he was pleased to report that November’s predictions “do not look so bleak”.

Austin, Texas — In the Austin Public Health Media Q&A on October 28, Dr. Mark Escort said he was pleased to report that November’s forecast “doesn’t look so dim” but he Added that the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium still estimates that “more than 200 people will be hospitalized in the week before Thanksgiving.”

The news comes one day after Escort told the Commissioner of the Travis County Court that if the public does not actively reduce the spread of COVID-1

9, “the Thanksgiving prediction will be dismal.”

Escort (Escott) warned committee members that if the community had a Thanksgiving coronavirus outbreak, it would take a long time to recover, as seen in the Austin area in July.

Escort said in an APH media question and answer on October 28: “Let me start to say with pleasure that with the decline in our admissions over the past few days, the forecast from the UT Modeling Alliance has improved.” The forecast in mid-November does not look so bleak, but there are still 250 hospital admissions forecast in the week before Thanksgiving. Our hospital continues to respond and prepare for the surge in activities. We have identified other methods. If needed, more people can be accommodated on the walls of the hospital.”

Watch: Coronavirus in Austin, Texas: Health leaders provide COVID-19 updates

In the COVID-19 media question and answer at Austin Public Health on October 14, Dr. Mark Escott mentioned the data from the University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Association. This is his report to Travis County Judge Sam Biscoe (Sam Biscoe) recommended one of the reasons for leaving the government. Greg Abbott’s bar reopens. Dr. Escort said that the UT COVID-19 model that morning indicated that the “epidemic is growing” has a 66% probability.

At the county commissioner’s meeting on October 20th, Escort told the commissioner that the chance of UT model data has risen from “the epidemic is growing” from 66% to “almost 90%.” KVUE checked the UT model on the morning of October 20, and the probability of the UT model increased to 96%. By October 27, its probability increased to 100%.

It was at the county governor’s meeting on October 27 that Escort described these forecasts as “bleak” and heeded the warning, asking the public to adjust their coronavirus prevention strategies to avoid a surge during the holidays. .

Escort said: “I want to tell you now that if we experience a surge during Thanksgiving, the surge will not end before Christmas.” “It took us a long time to recover from the first surge. Over time, we can expect that this time, especially if it is worse than the first surge, it may take longer.”

Escort did say at the October 27 meeting that his UT forecast has not yet explained the 11 hospitalizations recorded on October 26, and he admitted that this may affect the forecast.

When KVUE checked the UT modeling data on October 28, the “probability epidemic growth” had dropped from 100% to 38%, and the “14-day change” had dropped from 110% more infections to 5%.

Escort said that the hospitalization forecast for late November dropped from more than 700 to “more than 250 hospitalization forecasts in the week before Thanksgiving.”

Escort said APH remains concerned about its “most limited asset”: hospital personnel.

“We know that as COVID-19 activities increase, our employees’ absenteeism will increase. Are they sick or caring for the sick?” Escort said.

Escort said all of this, plus the threat of common flu, is why it is important to continue to take preventive measures during the winter of the calendar year.

APH director Stephanie Hayden issued an appeal to Travis County residents to take action.

Hayden said: “It can be avoided.” “We can be as a community, as a person and with your family. We can decide that we will not exceed our hospital system. We will get the flu vaccine. We will determine Our goal is that by the end of this year, we will continue to wash our hands frequently, keep six feet away from others, and continue to wear face masks. Austin-Travis County…we know you can do this, and you always Yes, we will step up our efforts. Therefore, we will avoid this type of hospitalization because we have done it before, so we will do it again.”

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