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Home / Health / Governor of Oregon: As predicted by the forecast, the “fourth surge” of COVID cases is a “race” between vaccines and variants

Governor of Oregon: As predicted by the forecast, the “fourth surge” of COVID cases is a “race” between vaccines and variants



Governor Kate Brown asked Oregon to take strict COVID-19 precautions on Friday because it is clear that despite the large-scale vaccination campaign, artificial lack of courtesy and more contagious variants may intensify The number of cases has risen again in the past 3½ months.

Brown said at a live news conference: “It is clear that in Oregon and the entire United States, the fourth increase in this virus is on our doorstep.” “…this is between the vaccine and the variant. Competition. This is a critical moment for all of us to redouble our efforts, so we can move beyond the next wave.”

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In the past 10 days, the number of new daily cases reported in Oregon has increased by 42%, twice the national level.

A forecast by the Oregon Health and Science University predicts that the number of new infections per day will jump from the current 390 cases per day to more than 1,000 cases per day in the next month. The number of hospitalized patients will also double to more than 300, and then decline again in late May.

Brown said: “We are in the last few miles of the marathon. We have gone very far and ran very hard. We are close to the finish line.” “Don’t let the vaccine and sunny spring give us a wrong feeling, that It is that we are not in danger because it is not the case. The virus has proven to be mutated. This is how we win.”

Brown said this includes vaccinations, and as of last Friday, about 29% of the state’s population had received at least one shot. Oregon has been issuing eligibility on a large scale, and the governor announced a new population category on Friday, which includes people over 16 years of age who are overweight or who have smoked, and will be approved no later than Monday. Ordinary citizens will be eligible no later than May 1.

In response to the next surge of COVID-19, Brown also urged people to avoid large social gatherings, wear masks and keep their bodies away.

She said she has no plans but to tighten the indicator announced last November, which currently allows most counties in the state (including the Portland area) to allow restaurants, bars, stadiums and movie theaters to maintain a 50% opening rate. Or higher. There are 100 people indoors. In most counties, churches can hold up to 50% to 75% of gatherings indoors, or a gathering of 150 people indoors.

When asked if more restrictive measures were being considered, Brown said that she instead relied on the continued introduction of highly effective vaccines and asked the people of Oregon to be cautious, such as wearing masks and masks.nose

Brown said: “As far as the current indicators are concerned, I feel comfortable.” “Obviously, I am very worried about the spread of the virus in Oregon. This is why we are working hard to vaccinate more Oregonians, especially our most. Vulnerable people.”

OHSU data scientist Peter Graven’s latest prediction model predicts a fourth surge, with the number of cases exceeding 1,000. He said that his current model predicts a decrease in cases in early May and hospitalization in late May, partly because More people are vaccinated, partly because the governor’s vaccinations have increased. As new cases reach a higher level, current indicators will begin to come into play. However, if more restrictive measures are taken immediately, the surge in the next six weeks may be weakened. This was the case last fall when the governor closed bars, restaurants and stadiums in many counties.

Grevin said: “This thing is basically a dime.” “It went naked, and it basically stopped the day you expected.”

However, Grevin said he has not seen support for this. However, the stricter restrictions “mathematically” are “very effective.”

Since the beginning of the pandemic, Oregon has the fourth-lowest rate of coronavirus cases and the fifth-lowest death rate. However, scientists say that the state is not immune to “COVID fatigue” and emerging mutations, some of which are more resistant to vaccines, more easily spread in children, reduce the effectiveness of certain drugs, or more Lethality.

State epidemiologist Dr. Dean Sidelinger announced at a press conference on Friday that the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention classified B.1.427 and B.1.429 in mid-March-these are two variants that have first appeared in California. , Is considered to be 20% contagious-due to “variables of concern” and Oregon will begin reporting its numbers later on Friday. He said that so far, more than 200 such variants have been discovered in Oregon.

The State of Oregon has reported 19 known cases of the B.1.1.7 variant for the first time in the UK. According to the CDC, its transmission capacity has increased by 50%. A study in March found that it can increase the chance of death in the UK by 55%

It is believed that the actual number of variants is much higher because Oregon and states across the country rarely test them.

Check out OregonLive.com later. This story will be updated.

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-Aimee Green; agreen@oregonian.com; @o_aimee


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