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Home / Business / Goldman Sachs analysts say the market is behaving as if opinion polls are biased towards Biden

Goldman Sachs analysts say the market is behaving as if opinion polls are biased towards Biden



Former Vice President Joe Biden gestured to the crowd before speaking at a driving race in Coconut Creek, Florida on Thursday.

Jim Watson/AFP/Getty Images

Whether you follow the betting market or the polls, former Vice President Joe Biden has won the US election. But the hard money in the election is not as biased towards Biden as the polls suggest.

Goldman Sachs analysts Blake Taylor and Alec Phillips said the predictive models maintained by data journalists and scholars make Biden more than 80% more likely to win. But the prediction market implies that the election result is still very uncertain, which means that there is just over 60% chance that Biden will win the electoral college.

They say that one of the reasons is the way the electoral college operates, which weighs larger states rather than total voting deposits. In the so-called tipping point state, Biden enjoys a five-point lead instead of nine. In 2016, although their scores in the national polls dropped by 1 or 2 percentage points, their average scores in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Florida dropped by 4 points.

Goldman Sachs analysts said the market expects Donald Trump’s performance to be about three percentage points higher than the polls. One possible reason is the so-called shy Trump voters, who may be reluctant to express support for the Republican candidate. Goldman Sachs used the gap between live interviews and automated or online polls to conduct its own experiments and found a one-point or two-point gap, although analysts warned that this may be statistical noise. Goldman Sachs analysts said that another problem is to conduct polls based on false turnout assumptions.

They said that huge differences in voting methods between political parties have created more uncertainty, and Democratic voters are more likely to be affected by mail-in voting issues or legal challenges. In contrast, the recent COVID-19 recovery may reduce Republican turnout.

Interestingly, Goldman Sachs analysts have found that this gap is not the same in the key battle in the Senate.

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