قالب وردپرس درنا توس
Home / Health / First, there is an increase in coronavirus infections. Then he was hospitalized. Now, the death toll is rising.

First, there is an increase in coronavirus infections. Then he was hospitalized. Now, the death toll is rising.



There are various signs that this is not a temporary phenomenon, but a reflection of a surge in a large number of infections. If no great efforts are made to reverse this trend, the number of deaths will increase in the next few weeks. In the United States, at least 229,000 people have died of covid-19 caused by the virus.

But mortality figures have become political feed in election campaigns. Depending on who you are listening to, the coronavirus is no longer so deadly. Or kill in droves.

The fact is that the death rate has increased, but the accelerated spread of the virus is increasing the absolute number of deaths.

Doctors reported better results due to improved techniques for treating patients and the use of the steroid dexamethasone and the use of the antiviral drug remsivir. In a widely reported study, researchers at the New York University Lange Health Center found that the mortality rate of more than 5,000 patients in the three hospitals of the system dropped from 25.6% in March to 7.6% in August.

Nevertheless, this is still a potentially fatal disease, and a large part of the population is still vulnerable to infection. With the number of infections reaching daily records, it is reasonable to expect that the death toll will continue to rise until the spread of the virus is stopped.

The death delayed the infection by several weeks. Since the end of September, in the hardest-hit North Dakota state, the number of daily infections has doubled, and the average death toll from covid-1

9 has risen by 50%. In Indiana, the number of cases rose by 150% and the number of deaths rose by 93%.

In Wisconsin, the number of cases began to surge in early September, and the death toll began to rise sharply at the end of the month. Since September 25, more than half of the 2,029 deaths caused by the pandemic have occurred.

President Trump and his son Donald Trump (Donald Trump Jr.) have stated in recent days that people are paying too much attention to infections rather than deaths, and that the infection rate has not risen so fast and is still lower than the At the beginning of the epidemic.

“Have you noticed that they don’t use the word’death’? The president said in Omaha on Tuesday: “They use the word “case.” He raised his 14-year-old son. “Like Barron Trump. He is smoking, he is smoking. A facial tissue, this is what he needs, and he is better. But he is a case.”

The young Trump posted a graph on his Instagram account based on incomplete data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which he claimed indicated that the death toll was declining.

“Why not discuss CDC’s ACTUAL data?…. [W]Although the number of new cases increased every week, the number of deaths per week actually decreased steadily,” Trump Jr. wrote. He responded to this argument in an interview with Fox News TV on Thursday, saying that he asked himself why people don’t talk about death. And decided: “Oh, because there are almost no people. Because we have controlled this matter, we understand how it works. “

His description of the CDC death data is misleading. The head of the agency’s mortality data department CDC official Robert Anderson (Robert Anderson) did not comment on this article. Instead, he pointed out that the CDC document (which Trump himself linked to from his Instagram account) explained that the latest death data did not Complete: “It is important to note that death records may take several weeks to be submitted to the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data displayed on this page may be incomplete, and It may not include all deaths that occurred in a given time period, especially in the most recent time period.”

In contrast, former Vice President Biden emphasized the death toll in his speech. In a brief speech in Wilmington, Delaware on Wednesday, he said that Trump’s reduction of the death rate to a minimum is an insult to those who have lost a loved one.

He talked about the “Trump Administration’s refusal to recognize the reality we live in when nearly 1,000 Americans die every day”, and said that “refusal” is for every family suffering from covid-19 and every family that has lost a loved one. “

These include Kathryn Hering Rikess, whose son Cole Hering was in Knoxville, Tennessee at the age of 36 after a long battle with covid-19 Passed away. She said she was frustrated by the politicization of the virus and the refusal of some people to follow simple health guidelines (such as wearing masks). She always thought that her son would call on Sunday to talk about football and sign “I love you, mother”.

She said: “No one should feel the pain I am going through.” “No one. Just follow the rules. Let us overcome this problem so that I can hold a funeral for my child and continue.”

White House spokesperson Judd Deere said that any suggestion that Trump did not take the virus threat seriously was “completely wrong” and cited a series of actions taken by the president, including travel that affects China. Bans and spring closures in some areas. Economy, “save millions of lives”, and support for treatment and vaccines. “Due to President Trump’s bold actions, the risk today is much lower than it was a few months ago, and the death rate has dropped by more than 80%.”

Nationally, the daily death toll caused by the virus is still far below the number seen in the initial spring wave of the pandemic, when an average of more than 2,200 people died every day. Decline to the beginning of July. But then in May and June, especially in the solar belt, infections surged, reflecting the end of many work stoppages and restrictions, again starting to increase the death toll.

With the advent of the weather in September and the accelerated spread of the virus, this number fell again in September, but has been steadily increasing this month.Since October 22, 2013 Alaska, Idaho, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Montana, Nebraska, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming The average daily death toll in each state has reached the highest level in history.

An influential model from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation of the University of Washington predicts that according to current policies, more than 2,000 people will be killed every day by the end of December, which is close to the terrible death toll when the Northeast was hit hard in April by the pandemic. influences.

But this is not set in stone: Experts say that if people follow the guidelines, including wearing face masks and maintaining physical distancing, and communities actively conduct contact tracing and isolate infected people, public health measures can reverse this trend.

Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said this week that he is generally skeptical of the model because its predictions depend on many assumptions. As the country went deeper into the autumn and winter seasons, he expressed shock at the high daily infection rate, which was the “benchmark.”

But he also pointed out that improved treatment can reduce the mortality rate of critically ill patients. He said it is impossible to accurately predict the death toll.

“I hope that as more people are infected and more people enter the hospital, our death toll will increase. It is impossible to predict that the death toll will be related to the number of hospitalizations.” Fauci said.

He and others warned that the widespread spread of the virus among young people will lead to dangerous cases for the most vulnerable groups in society-the elderly and people with chronic diseases. The virus can be incubated for up to 14 days, and the spreading process may be subtle and slow.

“A 20-year-old child was infected with another 20-year-old child, and another 20-year-old child was infected with grandma. So you have eight to ten weeks,” Fauci said.

Since the beginning of the pandemic, the current state of science has not changed: this is a potentially deadly but weird virus that can infect some people without producing any symptoms at all, while making others seriously ill, damaging their lungs, heart, kidneys, and Other organs. Symptoms sometimes last for weeks or months. This is a syndrome informally called “prolonged comorbidity”.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) stated that the best estimate of the infection mortality rate is 0.65%, which means that 65 out of 10,000 people infected with the virus will die. The age gradient is large: the mortality rate increases steadily with age, and this disease is more likely to be fatal in the elderly. Other factors that increase risk involve underlying chronic diseases, including obesity, heart disease and diabetes.

However, mortality is not an inherent characteristic of the virus, but depends on many factors, including improved treatment, the level of exposure to the virus, and access to medical care.

Some population groups bear a disproportionate burden of disease. In the United States, African Americans account for one-fifth of the deaths, far exceeding the proportion of their population, and there are other gaps in infections, hospitalizations, and deaths affecting people of color. For example, Hispanic Americans have a much higher infection rate than whites.

When the infection rises, it tends to increase after a few weeks in hospital. Some hospitalized patients are eventually sent to the intensive care unit, while others are put on ventilators. This may take several weeks to complete. Finally, the death toll inevitably echoed the infection a few weeks ago.

“Everything follows. So the new positive cases are driving hospitalizations. The number of hospitalizations is driving pressure on the intensive care unit. Bill Memes, chief medical officer of the Marshfield Clinic Medical System in Wisconsin, said these numbers determine The number of deaths is reduced. The system is located in rural areas of the state.

Compared with last week, this week’s coronavirus hospitalization in the Marshfield Clinic medical system has increased by 60%. The system distributed 90 patients among 90 hospitals on Thursday, which is a worrying number because of the rural nature of its facilities. Melms predicts that this number may double in the next four weeks.

“Whether it’s talking about death, intensive care unit hospitalization or general hospitalization, we will not see the light at the end of the tunnel until we see the average number of positive cases in the state start to decline, and start to continue to decline.” Melmes Say.

Experts say they believe the virus is mainly spread in small indoor gatherings, including inside bars and restaurants. Cold weather and students returning to the university campus are also possible factors. Like many parts of the United States far away from the coast, Wisconsin was unscathed in a widespread pandemic. These internal states are now flooded with cases.

Even so, some of the hardest-hit states had the lowest mask wearing rates.

Nasia Safdar, medical director of infection control at the University of Wisconsin Hospitals and Clinics, said: “The current mentality at least seems to be what people say,’Well, this is the truth.’ “But it can’t be true. Continue like it is now, because the health system will soon reach a point where they may have to make difficult decisions to decide whether to go for childbirth care or to provide care for patients who have not delivered but still need it. “

Trump has been criticizing the news media for focusing on the rise in infections, falsely claiming that it was simply because more tests were conducted. His own test czar Brett Giroir (Adret. Brett Giroir) said last week that the test could not explain the surge in cases due to rising hospitalization rates.

Trump also used his own covid-19 cycle as a case study.

“I have. I am here, right?” he said in Omaha.

Johns Hopkins University Health Safety Center senior scholar and spokesperson Amesh Adalia said: “This shows that even though he himself has been hospitalized and the whole world is watching him and hoping for his recovery, he is still not serious. Treat this.” American Academy of Infectious Diseases. “There is no way to minimize the harm of this virus in any honest way. This is another example of living in an alternative reality.”

Trump obtained experimental drugs that have not yet been made available to the public.but His case is not uncommon in statistics: most 74-year-old men with covid-19 can survive with or without special treatment.


Source link